Dependent masking and system life data analysis: Bayesian inference for two-component systems

Data from field operations of a system is often used to estimate the reliability of components. Under ideal circumstances, this system field data contains the time to failure along with information on the exact component responsible for the system failure. However, in many cases, the exact component causing the failure of the system cannot be identified, and is considered to be masked. Previously developed models for estimation of component reliability from masked system life data have been based upon the assumption that masking occurs independently of the true cause of system failure. In this paper we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating component reliabilities from masked system life data when the probability of masking is dependent upon the true cause of system failure. The Bayesian approach is illustrated for the case of a two-component system of exponentially distributed components.     

ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO FORECASTING ERROR AND THE U.S. POPULIST MOVEMENT

A farmer's crop mix is affected by the expected relative prices of the crops. A price forecasting error results in economic loss from planning a suboptimal mix. A new method of estimating economic loss due to forecasting error indicates that economic loss increased during the height of the Populist movement and then decreased. Using data for Kansas counties from 1882 to 1907, I estimate agricultural crop mix functions using a SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) procedure and calculate the economic loss due to forecasting error. Although new market opportunities must have made farmers better oth these nnnnrtunities increased the cost of price uncertainly.     

Revisiting the Work Ethic in America

Starting with a reflection on the September 11th, 2001, terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center and the corporate fraud and bankruptcies of 2002, the authors provide an overview of the professional literature concerning the origins, evolution, practice, and future implications of the work ethic in the United States. Discussion focuses on the American work ethic from both a historical and a modern‐day perspective, highlighting the formation of what is now considered a major paradigm of work; views on the changing nature of the work ethic, especially for women and members of minority groups; and implications for career counselors.     

THE SYSTEMIC TREATMENT OF SHAME IN COUPLES

Shame remains largely a hidden phenomenon in the treatment of couples. It can manifest itself as a determining factor in events ranging from entrenched blaming to missed appointments. Although there is a growing body of literature on individual shame dynamics and, to a lesser extent, on couple and family shame dynamics, there is little written on how to incorporate these theories into treatment. This paper offers working definitions of shame, proposes a systemic definition of shame as seen in couples, reviews the literature on coule shame dynamics, and explores issues of therapeutic stance and treatment techniques in working with shame in couples therapy.