Policy simulations with a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy

In this paper, the results of various dynamic policy simulations are analyzed within the context of a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy. The model contains 35 equations and offers a consistent framework for policy analysis. It is considerably expanded on the side of the fiscal sector and usefully incorporates the interdependence between monetary and fiscal sectors and gives due attention to supply side considerations. Magnitudes of effects of sustained policy changes are analyzed for the period 1964–1965 to 1974–1975. Impact multipliers and elasticities are also analyzed. Government expenditures variables and deficit financing are shown to have substantial impact on the system whereas changes in tax-rates, discount-rates, and liquidity ratios for commercial banks are shown to have only a marginal impact. The model is used for exploring the growth potential of the economy in a forecast period of five years under alternative assumptions regarding policy options.     

Dynamic sampling plans in on-line control charts

Three simple dynamic sampling plans for detecting the change point are investigated in the discrete-time case. The first is a two-rate sampling CUSUM procedure. The second is a two-rate sampling Shiryayev-Roberts procedure. The third is a periodic sequential testing procedure. Two problems are discussed. First, simple design methods are provided for practical use. Second, a comparison between the three plans is made in the continuous-time case, which shows that by properly choosing the design parameters, the three plans can be made equally efficient in certain senses.     

ESTIMATING THE COMMON MEAN OF A BIVARIATE NORMAL POPULATION

For estimating the common mean of a bivariate normal distribution, Krishnamoorthy & Rohatgi (1989) proposed some estimators which dominate the maximum likelihood estimator in a large region of the parameter space. We consider some modifications of these estimators and study their risk performance.     

Estimation of the MSE matrix of the stein estimator

Uniformly minimum-variance unbiased (UMVU) estimators of the total risk and the mean-squared-error (MSE) matrix of the Stein estimator for the multivariate normal mean with unknown covariance matrix are proposed. The estimated MSE matrix is helpful in identifying the components which contribute most to the total risk. It also contains information about the performance of the shrinkage estimator with respect to other quadratic loss functions.     

A note on the universal optimality criterion for full rank models

The aim of this note is to suggest a revised formulation of the universal optimality criterion for full rank models as stated in Kiefer (1975). We have presented the relevant results with indications of some possible applications.     

Sequential procedures based on M-estimators with discontinuous score functions

Bounded-width sequential confidence intervals and sequential tests for regression parameter based on M-estimators are extended to the case where the score-functions generating the M-estimators have jump-discontinuities. In the context of the asymptotic normality of the stopping variable, for the confidence interval problem, it is observed that the jump-discontinuities induce a slower rate of convergence. The proofs of the main theorems rest on the weak convergence of some related processes and this is also studied.     

Effect of equicorrelation in detecting a spurious observation

This note examines the effect of equicorrelation of the observations on Grubbs' (1950) procedure of detecting an outlier in a sample of n independent observations. It is shown that the procedure is robust, in fact the significance level remains unchanged.     

A Correction Note on Improvement in Variance Estimation Using Auxiliary Information

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the testing problem for homogeneity in the mixture exponential family is considered. The model is irregular in the sense that each interest parameter forms a part of the null hypothesis (sub-null hypothesis) and the null hypothesis is the union of the sub-null hypotheses. The generalized likelihood ratio test does not distinguish between the sub-null hypotheses. The Supplementary Score Test is proposed by combining two orthogonalized score tests obtained corresponding to the two sub-null hypotheses after proper reparameterization. The test is easy to design and performs better than the generalized likelihood ratio test and other alternative tests by numerical comparisons.     

Pseudo New Modified Latin Square (NML m (m)) Type PBIB Designs

A New Modified Latin square [NML _i (m)] association scheme with i constraints for v = m ² treatments was introduced by Garg (2008 Garg , D. K. ( 2008 ). New modified Latin square (NMLi) type PBIB designs . J. Math. Syst. Sci. 1 ( 4 ): 83 – 89 . [Google Scholar]). In this article, a new association scheme known as Pseudo New Modified Latin square [Pseudo NML _m (m)] type association scheme is defined. The parameters of Pseudo NML _m (m) association scheme turned out to be parameters of NML _i (m) association scheme by taking i = m in NML _i (m) association scheme. The Pseudo NML _m (m) association scheme will be the usual NML _m (m) association scheme when m is a prime or a prime power. The PBIB designs following Pseudo NML _m (m) association scheme will be called the Pseudo NML _m (m) type PBIB designs. Analysis of Pseudo NML _m (m) designs along with a construction method of these designs is also given in this article.