Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project

Summary.  The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for underenumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.     

Attachment-based family therapy: adherence and differentiation

This study examined the fidelity of attachment-based family therapy (ABFT) for depressed adolescents. Trained observers used the therapist behavior rating scale (3rd version) to code therapist behaviors in 45 sessions of ABFT and 45 sessions each from two empirically based treatments for adolescent substance abusers: multidimensional family therapy (MDFT) and cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Results indicate that ABFT therapists employed essential ABFT interventions, such as focusing on vulnerable affect, highlighting attachment-related themes, and promoting adolescent-parent reattachment through in-session enactments. In accordance with the sequential nature of the treatment, these interventions were used more extensively during the early stage of treatment, when there is a greater focus on reattachment. ABFT was perfectly discriminable from CBT, with ABFT therapists using more restructuring and reattachment interventions and CBT therapists using more signature CBT interventions, such as cognitive monitoring and homework. ABFT was also discriminable from MDFT, with ABFT therapists placing a greater emphasis on reattachment. These results suggest that ABFT is a viable and differentiated treatment. Together with prior findings supporting its efficacy, ABFT should be considered a promising new approach for working with depressed adolescents and their families.     

Application of Geostatistics to Risk Assessment

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.     

The Accuracy of Age-specific Population Estimates for Small Areas in Britain

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective.     

Marriage or cohabitation: a competing risks analysis of first-partnership formation among the 1958 British birth cohort

A discrete time competing risks hazards model is used to analyse entry into first partnership among men and women born in Britain in 1958. Using a life-course approach we identify family background and current life experiences which affect the timing and type of first-partnership formation. Education is a key factor influencing the age of entry into first partnership and whether or not the respondent will experience pregnancy before forming the partnership. Religiosity, experience of parental separation and the geographical region of residence are more important in affecting the decision to cohabit rather than to marry directly. The analyses highlight the importance of transitions in other domains such as leaving the parental home in encouraging cohabitation.     

How organizations work: Taking a holistic approach to enterprise health

The factors that facilitate organizational learning have traditionally been analysed by organizational learning and, in particular, the learning organization literature. Following a literature review, we have identified fifteen factors. However, these factors have been considered as universal, in other words, applicable to any sector or industry. In this paper we determine the combinations of organizational learning facilitating factors in a specific sectoral context: the Spanish ceramic tile sector, through an exploratory and comparative case study of four companies that illustrate this sector. In addition, we relate the companies' combinations of factors to their strategies (Miles and Snow 1978). The study mainly reveals that: each business strategy category is related to certain factors; the organizations with the most facilitating factors are the most innovative (prospector and analyser); and becoming a prospector implies the distinctive existence of factors 1 and 2, which encompass openness to and capacity for innovative change, a culture that favours the contribution of discerning ideas and maximum attention to the environment.     

Attachment‐Based Family Therapy With a 13‐Year‐Old Girl Presenting With High Risk for Suicide

This article describes the application of Attachment‐Based Family Therapy (ABFT) to the treatment of a 13‐year‐old female adolescent presenting with high risk of suicide, complicated by a history of depression and sexual trauma. The article begins with an overview of ABFT, including (a) how attachment theory guides treatment; (b) the structure of the clinical model; and (c) the data that provide empirical support. A case example is then presented that exemplifies the primary clinical procedures used to reach therapeutic goals in ABFT, including attachment repair and autonomy/competence promotion. Weekly changes in suicide ideation and depression scores are presented. The article concludes with a discussion about implications for family‐based treatment of suicidal youth.     

An Interagency Comparison of Screening-Level Risk Assessment Approaches

Approaches to risk assessment have been shown to vary among regulatory agencies and across jurisdictional boundaries according to the different assumptions and justifications used. Approaches to screening-level risk assessment from six international agencies were applied to an urban case study focusing on benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) exposure and compared in order to provide insight into the differences between agency methods, assumptions, and justifications. Exposure estimates ranged four-fold, with most of the dose stemming from exposure to animal products (8-73%) and plant products (24-88%). Total cancer risk across agencies varied by two orders of magnitude, with exposure to air and plant and animal products contributing most to total cancer risk, while the air contribution showed the greatest variability (1-99%). Variability in cancer risk of 100-fold was attributed to choices of toxicological reference values (TRVs), either based on a combination of epidemiological and animal data, or on animal data. The contribution and importance of the urban exposure pathway for cancer risk varied according to the TRV and, ultimately, according to differences in risk assessment assumptions and guidance. While all agency risk assessment methods are predicated on science, the study results suggest that the largest impact on the differential assessment of risk by international agencies comes from policy and judgment, rather than science.