Multivariate Kendall's tau for change‐point detection in copulas

Statistical procedures for the detection of a change in the dependence structure of a series of multivariate observations are studied in this work. The test statistics that are proposed are $L_1$ , $L_2$ , and $L_{\infty }$ distances computed from vectors of differences of Kendall's tau; two multivariate extensions of Kendall's measure of association are used. Since the distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis of no change depend on the unknown underlying copula of the vectors, a procedure based on the multiplier central limit theorem is used for the computation of p‐values; the method is shown to be valid both asymptotically and for moderate sample sizes. Alternative versions of the tests that take into account possible breakpoints in the marginal distributions are also investigated. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests are powerful under many scenarios of change‐point. In addition, two estimators of the time of change are proposed and their efficiency is carefully studied. The methodologies are illustrated on simulated series from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 65–82; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Crafting the Neoliberal State: Workfare,Prisonfare, and Social Insecurity1

In Punishing the Poor, I show that the ascent of the penal state in the United States and other advanced societies over the past quarter‐century is a response to rising social insecurity, not criminal insecurity; that changes in welfare and justice policies are interlinked, as restrictive “workfare” and expansive “prisonfare” are coupled into a single organizational contraption to discipline the precarious fractions of the postindustrial working class; and that a diligent carceral system is not a deviation from, but a constituent component of, the neoliberal Leviathan. In this article, I draw out the theoretical implications of this diagnosis of the emerging government of social insecurity. I deploy Bourdieu’s concept of “bureaucratic field” to revise Piven and Cloward’s classic thesis on the regulation of poverty via public assistance, and contrast the model of penalization as technique for the management of urban marginality to Michel Foucault’s vision of the “disciplinary society,” David Garland’s account of the “culture of control,” and David Harvey’s characterization of neoliberal politics. Against the thin economic conception of neoliberalism as market rule, I propose a thick sociological specification entailing supervisory workfare, a proactive penal state, and the cultural trope of “individual responsibility.” This suggests that we must theorize the prison not as a technical implement for law enforcement, but as a core political capacity whose selective and aggressive deployment in the lower regions of social space violates the ideals of democratic citizenship.     

The Case Study of Los Angeles City & County Fraud,Embezzlement and Corruption Safeguards during times of pandemic

Public Organization Review - This exploratory qualitative case study analyzes the risks of misappropriation of COVID-19 relief funds managed by public agencies in the County of Los Angeles. This...     

Histogram estimation of radon-nikodym derivatives for strong mixing data

Nonparametric inference for point processes is discussed by way of histograms, which provide a nice tool for the analysis of on-line data. The construction of histograms depends on a sequence of partitions, which we take tc be nonenibedded to allow partitions with sets of equal measure. This presents some theoretical problems, which are addressed with an assumption on the decomposition of second order moments. In another direction, we drop the usual independence assumption on the sample, replacing it by a strong mixing assumption. Under this setting, we study the convergence of the histogram in probability, which depends on approximation conditions between the distributions of random pairs and the product of their marginal distributions, and^almost completely, which is based on the decomposition of the second order moments. This last convergence is stated on two versions according to the assumption of Laplace transforms or the Cramer moment conditions. These are somewhat stronger, but enable us to recover the usual condition on the decrease rate of sets on each partition. In the final section we prove that the finite dimensional distributions converge in distribution to a Gaussian centered vector with a specified covariance.     

The effect of tapering on the semiparametric estimators for nonstationary long memory processes

In this paper, we study, by a Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the order p of “Zhurbenko-Kolmogorov” taper on the asymptotic properties of semiparametric estimators. We show that p  =  [d + 1/2] + 1 gives the smallest variances and mean squared errors. These properties depend also on the truncation parameter m. Moreover, we study the impact of the short-memory components on the bias and variances of these estimators. We finally carry out an empirical application by using four monthly seasonally adjusted logarithm Consumer Price Index series.      

On the diversity score: a copula approach

ABSTRACT

For the rating process of Collateralized Debt Obligations', Moody's suggests the Diversity Score as a measure of diversification in the collateral pool. This measure is used in Moody's Binomial Expansion Technique to infer the probability of default and thus the expected Loss in the portfolio. In this paper, we examine the appropriateness of this approach to assess the reality of defaults using a copula approach and lower tail dependence.     

Comparative Mixed Risk Aversion: Definition and Application to Self-Protection and Willingness to Pay

We analyze the optimal choices of agents with utility functions whose derivatives alternate in sign, an important class that includes most of the functions commonly used in economics and finance (Mixed Risk Aversion, MRA, Caballé and Pomansky, 1996). We propose a comparative mixed risk aversion definition for this class of utility functions, namely, More Risk Averse MRA, and provide a sufficient condition to compare individuals. We apply the model to optimal prevention and willingness to pay. More risk averse MRA agents spend less to reduce accident probabilities that are above 1/2. They spend more only when accident probabilities are below 1/2. Explanations in terms of risk premiums are provided. The results presented also allow for the presence of background risk.     

What Makes Better Boards? A Closer Look at Diversity and Ownership

This study investigates the joint effect of corporate ownership and board of directors' diversity configurations on the success of strategic merger and acquisition (M&A) decisions. Board diversity is defined as the extent to which its demographic diversity as measured by the culture, nationality, gender and experience of its directors complements its statutory diversity. A theoretical framework linking ownership, board diversity and M&A strategic decision making is proposed and tested. Based on a sample of 289 M&A decisions undertaken by Canadian firms over the period 2000–2007, demographic diversity is found to have a clear and non‐linear effect on M&A performance while statutory diversity is of limited influence. Ownership is found to influence the effect of diversity, making the relation finer and more precise. This has practical implications. First, statutory diversity is not sufficient for well‐performing boards. Also, ownership is an important factor. The most advocated board diversity aimed at insuring the board's independence is not valid across all ownership configurations. From a public policy perspective, results provide support for the principles‐based approach in governance. Governance regimes should encourage the search for a balance between board diversity and the need for cohesion that best serves the firm's purpose and obligations.