The potential of integrated modelling in conservation biology: A case study of the black‐footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes)

Conservation biology aims at assessing the status of a population, based on information which is often incomplete. Integrated population modelling based on state‐space models appears to be a powerful and relevant way of combining into a single likelihood several types of information such as capture‐recapture data and population surveys. In this paper, the authors describe the principles of integrated population modelling and they evaluate its performance for conservation biology based on a case study, that of the black‐footed albatross, a northern Pacific albatross species suspected to be impacted by longline fishing     

Addressing potential prior‐data conflict when using informative priors in proof‐of‐concept studies

Bayesian methods are increasingly used in proof‐of‐concept studies. An important benefit of these methods is the potential to use informative priors, thereby reducing sample size. This is particularly relevant for treatment arms where there is a substantial amount of historical information such as placebo and active comparators. One issue with using an informative prior is the possibility of a mismatch between the informative prior and the observed data, referred to as prior‐data conflict. We focus on two methods for dealing with this: a testing approach and a mixture prior approach. The testing approach assesses prior‐data conflict by comparing the observed data to the prior predictive distribution and resorting to a non‐informative prior if prior‐data conflict is declared. The mixture prior approach uses a prior with a precise and diffuse component. We assess these approaches for the normal case via simulation and show they have some attractive features as compared with the standard one‐component informative prior. For example, when the discrepancy between the prior and the data is sufficiently marked, and intuitively, one feels less certain about the results, both the testing and mixture approaches typically yield wider posterior‐credible intervals than when there is no discrepancy. In contrast, when there is no discrepancy, the results of these approaches are typically similar to the standard approach. Whilst for any specific study, the operating characteristics of any selected approach should be assessed and agreed at the design stage; we believe these two approaches are each worthy of consideration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Eye Tracking to Identify Faking Attempts During Penile Plethysmography Assessment

Penile plethysmography (PPG) is considered the most rigorous method for sexual interest assessment. Nevertheless, it is subject to faking attempts by participants, which compromises the internal validity of the instrument. To date, various attempts have been made to limit voluntary control of sexual response during PPG assessments, without satisfactory results. This exploratory research examined eye-tracking technologies' ability to identify the presence of cognitive strategies responsible for erectile inhibition during PPG assessment. Eye movements and penile responses for 20 subjects were recorded while exploring animated human-like computer-generated stimuli in a virtual environment under three distinct viewing conditions: (a) the free visual exploration of a preferred sexual stimulus without erectile inhibition; (b) the viewing of a preferred sexual stimulus with erectile inhibition; and (c) the free visual exploration of a non-preferred sexual stimulus. Results suggest that attempts to control erectile responses generate specific eye-movement variations, characterized by a general deceleration of the exploration process and limited exploration of the erogenous zone. Findings indicate that recording eye movements can provide significant information on the presence of competing covert processes responsible for erectile inhibition. The use of eye-tracking technologies during PPG could therefore lead to improved internal validity of the plethysmographic procedure.     

The Impact of Abuse History and Trauma Symptoms on Successful Completion of a Prostitution-exiting Program

This study examines the trauma symptoms and life experiences of 49 women in a residential prostitution-exiting program and identifies differences among women who complete 90 days of the program and women who drop out of the program prior to completing 90 days. The majority of the women reported childhood abuse, adult abusive relationships, and victimization. Women who completed 90 days of treatment were found to be older than the non-completers. Non-completers were more likely to report clinically significant trauma symptoms including dissociation, poor coping behaviors, sex-related issues, and dysfunctional sexual behavior than completers. These findings suggest the importance of incorporating trauma-focused intervention early in the services provided in the exiting programs as well as the need to address the traumatic symptoms related to childhood and adult trauma histories. Findings also indicate the importance of clinically addressing trauma-related sexual issues, concerns, and behavior.     

Application of the Hyper‐Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes

The hyper‐Poisson distribution can handle both over‐ and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation‐specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper‐Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper‐Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway‐highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness‐of‐fit measures indicated that the hyper‐Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper‐Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper‐Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper‐Poisson model can handle both over‐ and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model.     

Child custody issues and co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence and child maltreatment: controversies and points of agreement amongst practitioners

The situation of families undergoing separation in a context of co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment raises certain issues related to child custody. The results presented in this paper were collected and analysed within the framework of a qualitative study aiming to identify the principal points of agreement and the main controversies amongst practitioners in several different types of organizations. Focus groups were held with a total of 43 practitioners from six different settings concerned with child custody in cases of co‐occurrence of IPV and child maltreatment. Although they agreed on the importance of ensuring the safety of victims of violence, their views diverged on three points: (1) the importance of preserving the father–child relationship; (2) collaboration between voluntary organizations and semi‐voluntary or legal agencies; and (3) consideration of cultural differences.     

How can we Define the Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey

In this paper we discuss different aspects of long memory behavior and applicable parametric models. We discuss the confusion that can arise when the empirical autocorrelation function decreases in a hyperbolic way.