Analysis of band‐recovery data in a multistate capture‐recapture framework

Dead recoveries of marked animals are commonly used to estimate survival probabilities. Band‐recovery models can be parameterized either by r (the probability of recovering a band conditional on death of the animal) or by f (the probability that an animal will be killed, retrieved, and have its band reported). The T parametrization can be implemented in a capture‐recapture framework with two states (alive and newly dead), mortality being the transition probability between the two states. The authors show here that the f parametrization can also be implemented in a multistate framework by imposing simple constraints on some parameters. They illustrate it using data on the mallard and the snow goose. However, they mention that because it does not entirely separate the individual survival and encounter processes, the f parametrization must be used with care on reduced models, or in the presence of estimates at the boundary of the parameter space. As they show, a multistate framework allows the use of powerful software for model fitting or testing the goodness‐of‐fit of models; it also affords the implementation of complex models such as those based on mixture of information or uncertain states     

Prediction of Chaotic Time Series in the Presence of Measurement Error: the Importance of Initial Conditions

In this paper we argue that even if a dynamic relationship can be well described by a deterministic system, retrieving this relationship from an empirical time series has to take into account some, although possibly very small measurement error in the observations. Therefore, measuring the initial conditions for prediction may become much more difficult since one now has a combination of deterministic and stochastic elements. We introduce a partial smoothing estimator for estimating the unobserved initial conditions. We will show that this estimator allows to reduce the effects of measurement error for predictions although the reduction may be small in the presence of strong chaotic dynamics. This will be illustrated using the logistic map.     

On the voting power of an alliance and the subsequent power of its members

Even, and in fact chiefly, if two or more players in a voting game have on a binary issue independent opinions, they may have interest to form a single voting alliance giving an average gain of influence for all of them. Here, assuming the usual independence of votes, we first study the alliance voting power and obtain new results in the so-called asymptotic limit for which the number of players is large enough and the alliance weight remains a small fraction of the total of the weights. Then, we propose to replace the voting game inside the alliance by a random game which allows new possibilities. The validity of the asymptotic limit and the possibility of new alliances are examined by considering the decision process in the Council of Ministers of the European Union.     

Le marché a dit. Intermédiaires financiers et managers dans le secteur électrique

The role played in the electricity industry by finance analysts, consultants and rating agencies has received too little attention in research on the liberalization of technical networks. Three arguments are brought forward. First of all, despite any rational argumentation, these intermediaries must be seen as ordinary actors with their interests, drawbacks and cognitive limits. Secondly, they have played an important part in transforming what used to be a tightly regulated industry. Their power mainly derives from their ability to influence the definition of the “right” policies and the production of information prior to decision-making. It takes the concrete form of an oligopoly power over two basic links in the information flow: big operations in the capital market and the ability to make comparisons between firms, sectors and countries and thus recommend the “right” allocation of resources. Thirdly, this quite real power does not have mechanical effects since it reflects a state of equilibrium within the firm, as the case of Suez proves. The relation between markets and firms is more interactive that it seems at first glance.     

The vulnerability of four social choice functions to coalitional manipulation of preferences

The vulnerability of a social choice function to coalitional manipulation of preferences is defined as the proportion of voting situations in which the social choice function can be manipulated by a coalition of individuals. In this paper, we provide exact relations giving the vulnerability of four specific social choice functions (plurality rule, anti-plurality rule, plurality with runoff, anti-plurality with runoff) in three-alternative elections. Plurality with runoff appears to be less vulnerable than the other three rules.     

On the likelihood of dummy players in weighted majority games

When the number of players is small in a weighted majority voting game, it can occur that one of the players has no influence on the result of the vote, in spite of a strictly positive weight. Such a player is called a “dummy” player in game theory. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the conditions that give rise to such a phenomenon and to compute its likelihood. It is shown that the probability of having a dummy player is surprisingly high and some paradoxical results are observed.     

Nurturing the virtuous circle: Looked After Children's participation in reviews,a cyclical and relational process

Children's participation in decision making of all kinds is of increasing interest across the world as more and more countries seek to comply with Article 12 of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. The participation rights of children who are in the care of the state are of particular concern. Recent research in England suggests that Independent Reviewing Officers (IROs) can play a crucial role in ensuring that looked after and accommodated children are able to participate in care planning and review processes. This paper outlines the findings of the first Scottish study to investigate the role of Reviewing Officers in encouraging children's participation in reviews. Surveys were collected from social workers, Reviewing Officers and young people after 69 review meetings as part of an action research study. Follow‐up qualitative interviews were then completed with 10 young people and a focus group held with the five participating Reviewing Officers. The findings suggest that participation in looked after reviews can best be understood as a cyclical and relational process and that taking part in action research may enhance participation practices. While the role of the Reviewing Officer was found to be important, the findings suggest that everyone involved in the care and support of the young person needs to encourage participation processes that are individualized.     

Second degree Pareto dominance

We present and discuss a binary relation aimed at the study of the re-distribution of income. We characterize, in a number of ways, the set of income allocations that can be reached from an initial allocation through a sequence of pair-wise equalizing transfers, where the sequence contains no flow of income from any donor to anyone else who ends up strictly richer than this donor himself ends up at the outcome of the entire sequence. Thanks are due to Peter Lambert and James Mirrlees for their comments. Thon was with the Department of Economics, University of Macau, when some of the work on this paper was done.