The folder feedback system: Making research content more understandable,enjoyable, and usable 1

This paper describes the use and evaluation of the folder feedback system. The folder feedback system is a useful teaching tool based in principles of adult learning. It is designed to help organize student learning, increase communication with the instructor, insert an element of fun into the class, and assist with student/teacher relationship building. An evaluation of the teaching tool produced mixed results. The treatment group received higher grades than the comparison group, yet in all other measures no differences were found.     

Estimating the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating with a dual design for direct questioning and randomized response

Randomized response is a misclassification design to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour. Respondents who do not follow the instructions of the design are considered to be cheating. A mixture model is proposed to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating in the case of a dual sampling scheme with direct questioning and randomized response. The mixing weight is the probability of cheating, where cheating is modelled separately for direct questioning and randomized response. For Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied to sample parameter values from the posterior. The model makes it possible to analyse dual sample scheme data in a unified way and to assess cheating for direct questions as well as for randomized response questions. The research is illustrated with randomized response data concerning violations of regulations for social benefit.     

The Victorian Gambling Screen: Reliability and Validation in a Clinical Population

There is a need to establish reliability and the various forms of validity in all measures in order to feel confident in the use of such tools across a wide diversity of settings. The aim of this study is to describe the reliability and validity of the Victorian Gambling Screen (VGS) and in particular one of the sub-scales (Harm to Self—HS) in a specialist problem gambling treatment service in Adelaide, Australia. Sixty-seven consecutive gamblers were assessed using a previously validated clinical interview and the VGS (Ben-Tovim et al., The Victorian Gambling Screen: project report. Victorian Research Panel, Melbourne, 2001). The internal consistency of the combined VGS scales had a Cronbach’s alpha of .85 with the HS scale .89. There was satisfactory evidence of convergent validity which included moderate correlations with another measure of gambling—the South Oaks Gambling Screen. There were also moderate correlations with other measures of psychopathology. Finally, how the VGS may best be used in clinical settings is discussed.     

An Empirical Analysis of Backlog,Inventory, Production,and Price Adjustments: An Application of Recursive Systems of Log-Linear Models

This article presents an empirical analysis of firms' order backlogs, inventories, production, and price adjustments to unanticipated demand shocks. The data are obtained from quarterly INSEE Business Survey Tests on firms' realizations, expectations, and appraisals of some various economic variables. The analysis is based on the formulation and the estimation of a recursive system of conditional log-linear probability models.     

Combinatoric classification of multivariate normal variates

Consider classifying an n × I observation vector as coming from one of two multivariate normal distributions which differ both in mean vectors and covariance matrices. A class of dis-crimination rules based upon n independent univariate discrim-inate functions is developed yielding exact misclassification probabilities when the population parameters are known. An efficient search of this class to select the procedure with minimum expected misclassification is made by employing an algorithm of the implicit enumeration type used in integer programming. The procedure is applied to the classification of male twins as either monozygotic or dizygotic.     

A time series model with random coefficients

There are many time series applications where an experi­menter observes the simultaneous responses of several sub­systems over time. In these instances one is often not interested in the parameters of individual subsystems, but rather in an overall characterization of the system in question. Under the assumption that subsystems are independent and first order autoregressive, the present paper presents two methods for estimating the distribution of the subsystem coefficients.     

Adolescent Socialization in Rural Appalachia: The Perspectives of Teens,Parents, and Significant Adults

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the social networks of Appalachian adolescents to understand socialization strategies and goals. A total of 46 interviews were conducted with five families (mothers, fathers, and adolescents) and 11 socialization agents the families identified as exerting significant influence in the lives of the adolescents. Interviews were transcribed and then analyzed using principles of grounded theory. Five themes developed from the interviews: the importance of community to the socialization process, adult involvement and support, adolescent monitoring, teaching respect and responsibility, and adolescent autonomy. Results suggest the need for in-depth investigation of adolescent development within a variety of cultural and social contexts to more fully understand these processes.     

Energy modeling as a tool for planning

This paper discusses the application of a general equilibrium model, developed at Stanford Research Institute, for use in long range forecasting and business planning. The value of the modeling approach is illustrated through application to a hypothetical natural gas liquefaction venture. Specific features and representative output of the SRI model are presented. The authors stress the use of a modeling approach in the planning process as a quantitative means of evaluating the importance of uncertainty in specific decision variables and the ability of such model to test explicitly the long term impact of changes in a given set of base assumptions.     

“How Exposed Is Exposed Enough?” Lay Inferences About Chemical Exposure

The concept of exposure is central to chemical risk assessment and plays an important role in communicating to the public about the potential health risks of chemicals. Research on chemical risk perception has found some indication that the model lay people use to judge chemical exposure differs from that of toxicologists, thereby leading to different conclusions about chemical safety. This paper presents the results of a series of studies directed toward developing a model for understanding how lay people interpret the concept of chemical exposure. The results indicate that people's beliefs about chemical exposure (and its risks) are based on two broad categories of inferences. One category of inferences relates to the nature in which contact with a chemical has taken place, including the amount of a chemical involved and its potential health consequences. A second category of inferences about chemical exposure relates to the pragmatics of language interpretation, leading to beliefs about the motives and purposes behind chemical risk communication. Risk communicators are encouraged to consider how alternative models of exposure and language interpretation can lead to conflicting conclusions on the part of the public about chemical safety.