Accounting for Both Random Errors and Systematic Errors in Uncertainty Propagation Analysis of Computer Models Involving Experimental Measurements with Monte Carlo Methods

A Monte Carlo method is presented to study the effect of systematic and random errors on computer models mainly dealing with experimental data. It is a common assumption in this type of models (linear and nonlinear regression, and nonregression computer models) involving experimental measurements that the error sources are mainly random and independent with no constant background errors (systematic errors). However, from comparisons of different experimental data sources evidence is often found of significant bias or calibration errors. The uncertainty analysis approach presented in this work is based on the analysis of cumulative probability distributions for output variables of the models involved taking into account the effect of both types of errors. The probability distributions are obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulation coupled with appropriate definitions for the random and systematic errors. The main objectives are to detect the error source with stochastic dominance on the uncertainty propagation and the combined effect on output variables of the models. The results from the case studies analyzed show that the approach is able to distinguish which error type has a more significant effect on the performance of the model. Also, it was found that systematic or calibration errors, if present, cannot be neglected in uncertainty analysis of models dependent on experimental measurements such as chemical and physical properties. The approach can be used to facilitate decision making in fields related to safety factors selection, modeling, experimental data measurement, and experimental design.     

The Visibility of Feminist Thought in Family Studies

We assessed feminist visibility in family journals by tallying the feminist content of articles in Journal of Marriage and Family, Journal of Family Issues, and Family Relations. There was an increase in feminist visibility from 1972 to 1992, at which point the growth of visibility stalled. From 1992 to 2002, almost 1 out of 4 articles appeared to be influenced, at least minimally, by feminist scholarship when including in our tally a measure of articles' mentioning of gender in its abstract or title without a detectable feminist perspective in the article. Only about 6% of articles, however, involved an explicit feminist analysis. We offer explanations for this apparent glass ceiling for feminist visibility and make suggestions for future research.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of FMD Virus Transmission via Water

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral disease of domesticated and wild cloven-hoofed animals. FMD virus is known to spread by direct contact between infected and susceptible animals, by animal products such as meat and milk, by the airborne route, and mechanical transfer on people, wild animals, birds, and by vehicles. During the outbreak of 2001 in the Netherlands, milk from dairy cattle was illegally discharged into the sewerage as a consequence of transport prohibition. This may lead to contaminated discharges of biologically treated and raw sewage in surface water that is given to cattle to drink. The objective of the present study was to assess the probability of infecting dairy cows that were drinking FMD virus contaminated surface water due to illegal discharges of contaminated milk. So, the following data were collected from literature: FMD virus inactivation in aqueous environments, FMD virus concentrations in milk, dilution in sewage water, virus removal by sewage treatment, dilution in surface water, water consumption of cows, size of a herd in a meadow, and dose-response data for ingested FMD virus by cattle. In the case of 1.6 x 10(2) FMD virus per milliliter in milk and discharge of treated sewage in surface water, the probability of infecting a herd of cows was estimated to be 3.3 x 10(-7) to 8.5 x 10(-5), dependent on dilution in the receiving surface water. In the case of discharge of raw sewage, all probabilities of infection were 100 times higher. In the case of little dilution in small rivers, the high level of 8.5 x 10(-3) is reached. For 10(4) times higher FMD virus concentrations in milk, the probabilities of infecting a herd of cows are high in the case of discharge of treated sewage (3.3 x 10(-3) to 5.7 x 10(-1)) and very high in the case of discharge of raw sewage (0.28-1.0). It can be concluded that illegal and uncontrolled discharges of contaminated milk into the sewerage system may lead to high risks to other cattle farms at 6-50 km distance of the location of discharge within one day. This clearly underlines current measures that prohibit such discharges, and also asks for strict control. This risk assessment clearly demonstrated the potential significance of FMD virus transmission via water, and the results will be useful on an international scale, and could also serve as a basis for other FMD risk-assessment models.     

The failure of meta-analytic asymptotics for the seemingly efficient estimator of the common risk difference

We consider the case of a multicenter trial in which the center specific sample sizes are potentially small. Under homogeneity, the conventional procedure is to pool information using a weighted estimator where the weights used are inverse estimated center-specific variances. Whereas this procedure is efficient for conventional asymptotics (e. g. center-specific sample sizes become large, number of center fixed), it is commonly believed that the efficiency of this estimator holds true also for meta-analytic asymptotics (e.g. center-specific sample size bounded, potentially small, and number of centers large). In this contribution we demonstrate that this estimator fails to be efficient. In fact, it shows a persistent bias with increasing number of centers showing that it isnot meta-consistent. In addition, we show that the Cochran and Mantel-Haenszel weighted estimators are meta-consistent and, in more generality, provide conditions on the weights such that the associated weighted estimator is meta-consistent.     

Clinical gait and stepping performance measures in older adults

Problems with ambulation and mobility are frequent problems in older adults. Each year, about one in 100 older adults develops new severe mobility disability. Assessment of abnormal gait constitutes a major component of clinical practice and may lead to fall reduction. Clinicians can benefit from simple gait and mobility assessment tools to be used in busy clinical settings. This review focuses on gait and stepping performance measures that can be used by the busy clinician to assess gait, mobility performance, balance, and falls risk in the older adult.     

Inequality and Educational Investment in Thai Children*

Abstract In this paper we examine differences in upper secondary school attendance among subgroups of the population in Thailand. We ascertain where inequalities continue to exist and where they have been mediated. We analyze data from samples of the 1990 and 2000 Thai censuses. We find that the gender gap favoring boys has closed at the national level and that girls now transition to upper secondary school more often than do boys. Inequalities still exist according to socioeconomic background of families. Rural‐urban differences have narrowed considerably since 1990, but they continue to be observed, particularly in certain parts of the country. Similarly, differences between Muslims and others appear to have lessened over the last decade, but Muslims continue to be disadvantaged compared to others, particularly in the South.     

蒙古语科尔沁土语基本词汇的特点

科尔沁土语被认为是蒙古语方言中发展、变化较快的土语。研究科尔沁土语基本词汇对现代蒙 古语词汇学、蒙古语方言学，以及蒙古语的发展和规范研究具有重要的学术价值和实际意义。科尔沁土语基 本词汇具有农业词汇丰富、内部差异性和变异性等特点。