Racial disparity in Minnesota's child protection system

Minnesota has been recognized by several studies as a state with a significant amount of racial disparity in its child protection system. This study, using 2001 data from Minnesota's Social Services Information Service, was conducted to determine at which of the six decision points in Minnesota's child welfare system racial disparities are statistically significant. The authors employ a nested model to examine a child's journey through the Minnesota child protection system. Using binary logistic regression, they are able to determine the odds that a child belonging to a particular racial or ethnic group would progress to the next decision point.     

An exponential model of female sterility

It is suggested that a useful component of a fertility simulation would be proportions of females sterile by age. Data on this phenomenon are rather limited, but they indicate that proportional sterility may not easily be described by a simple function. We propose that rates of becoming sterile may be adequately described by an exponential function utilizing proper parameter values. Such exponential-model rates form the basis for computation of a fecundity decrement table presented in this paper. Sterility proportions from the table are compared to some empirical data.     

Capital investment in neighborhoods: Theories which inform national urban policy in the United States

This article addresses two fundamental issues in the design and implementation of federal urban policies: (i) the shifting priorities of urban policy characterizing urban renewal, the Community Development Act, and recent neighborhood-oriented redevelopment efforts and (ii) the sociological theories which underlie such priorities. The first part of the article traces the shift in priority of national urban policy from an earlier focus on economic redevelopment and housing assistance for the economically disadvantaged to the more recent thrust toward neighborhood rehabilitation, revitalization, and stabilization. The central role of private sector economic involvement in the new urban strategies is discussed and the triage model of urban development is proposed to explain recent urban policy efforts. In the latter part of the article the sociological theories underlying many of the new urban policies are shown to contain inherent contradictions and inadequacies which were largely ignored by policy-makers. The authors conclude that the articulation between these theories of neighborhood dynamics and the present urban policy focus dooms recent programs, once again, to failure.     

The impact of state-level restrictions on abortion

This research examines 23 different laws passed by state governments in an effort to restrict the number of abortions. It assesses both laws passed and laws actually enforced after the Supreme Court permitted states to restrict access to abortion in 1989. None of the policy actions by state governments has had a significant impact on the incidence of abortion from 1982 to 1992. Abortion rates continue to reflect past abortion rates, the number of abortion providers, whether the state funds abortions for Medicaid-eligible women, urbanism, and racial composition of the population. Recent restrictive policies have not affected these trends.     

The geometry of justice: Three existence and uniqueness theorems

Various intuitive notions of justice are characterized in terms of geometry. Three approaches to justice (Utilitaran, Rawlsian and Nash) are considered. A set of qualities which we might want a justice approach to have is presented. Three different subsets of these qualities are shown to be uniquely satisfied (out of all possible approaches) by a different one of the three approaches considered.     

Rurality and well-being during the middle years of life

Popular stereotypes and theorizing by social scientists suggest that rural people are more satisfied with their communities and happier with their life situations than are their nonrural counterparts. This enhanced well-being is believed to result at least partly from the presence of kinship and friendship ties in the local community and the adherence to traditional religious beliefs. Data from a panel study of nearly 1200 middle aged persons from Pennsylvania surveyed in 1971 and 1984 provided indices of community satisfaction and happiness. When income was controlled, country residents expressed slightly higher levels of community satisfaction than did town or urban dwellers in both time periods. Happiness was not related to residence location. Income was a relatively more important predictor of community satisfaction and happiness among urban than among country residents, while number of friends was relatively more important for rural residents. Number of kin living nearby and adherence to traditional religious beliefs were not related to well-being regardless of residence location.     

Integrating dose estimation into a decision‐making framework for model‐based drug development

Model‐informed drug discovery and development offers the promise of more efficient clinical development, with increased productivity and reduced cost through scientific decision making and risk management. Go/no‐go development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry are often driven by effect size estimates, with the goal of meeting commercially generated target profiles. Sufficient efficacy is critical for eventual success, but the decision to advance development phase is also dependent on adequate knowledge of appropriate dose and dose‐response. Doses which are too high or low pose risk of clinical or commercial failure. This paper addresses this issue and continues the evolution of formal decision frameworks in drug development. Here, we consider the integration of both efficacy and dose‐response estimation accuracy into the go/no‐go decision process, using a model‐based approach. Using prespecified target and lower reference values associated with both efficacy and dose accuracy, we build a decision framework to more completely characterize development risk. Given the limited knowledge of dose response in early development, our approach incorporates a set of dose‐response models and uses model averaging. The approach and its operating characteristics are illustrated through simulation. Finally, we demonstrate the decision approach on a post hoc analysis of the phase 2 data for naloxegol (a drug approved for opioid‐induced constipation).     

AN ANALYSIS OF PORTFOLIO REVISION STRATEGIES UTILIZING VARIABLE REVISION INTERVALS*

This paper investigates portfolio revision with an emphasis on the decision of when to revise. A statistical technique based on the sequential analysis of the time series of portfolio return relatives determines when revision is to occur. The technique detects changes in the time series which are an indication that the underlying generating process of the time series has changed and that the portfolio should be, if necessary, revised. Thus, the length of the revision interval is variable and a function of the data. The statistical technique is utilized in conjunction with three portfolio revision strategies. These three revision strategies are compared to a buy and hold policy over three nonoverlapping, 12-year investment horizons. The basis of comparison is the net terminal values which include adjustments for transaction costs and taxes. The sensitivity of the statistical technique to its parameters is also analyzed.     

A DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR PLANNING IN A MULTI-PRODUCT ENVIRONMENT

This paper describes an extension of the product mix problem and explicitly considers situations where demand can fluctuate over time. The additional decision variables and constraints that must be considered are described, and a revised objective function is discussed. The solution to the proposed linear programming formulation is compared to the traditional simulation and illustrates the potential for increased profits.