Adjusting risky situations: A theoretical framework and empirical test

Experienced executives frequently try to modify the risky situations they face in order to make them more favorable rather than simply choosing from among available decision options. This article investigates several types of risk adjustments such as trying to influence the situation through bargaining and spending resources, gathering information, developing new options, and consulting one's superiors. A theoretical framework is presented that characterizes different types of adjustments and relates them to variables such as perceived risk, perceived control, perceived responsibility, decisiveness, and risky choice. The framework is tested using experienced decision makers who respond to four simulated risky business decisions.University of British Columbia     

Do eating and drinking habits interact with work schedule variables?

When compared to day workers, night-shift workers report that they eat fewer meals, have poorer appetites, are less satisfied with their eating habits, and eat at different times of the day. When demographic variables are held constant, there do not appear to be any significant differences between experienced day and night-shift workers in caffeine or alcohol consumption. Exceptions to and variations in these findings are probably due to the background influences of social and cultural variables. Eating and drinking behaviours do effect human performance and mood, but little relevant data have been gathered from experienced night-shift workers. There are no shiftworker data evaluating the effectiveness of the special diets or dietary recommendations that have been proposed for use by night-shift workers. Thus, attempts to manipulate night-shift worker eating and drinking habits require experimental test.     

Economic determinants of family size in West Africa

The economic theory of fertility postulates that income and prices, broadly defined, are important determinants of family size. What follows is an attempt to test this theory against the behavior of 717 predominantly urban households in Sierra Leone. Husband's education is used as a proxy for income; the "price" of a child is accounted for by wife's education and wife's wage rate. Other important variables are wife's age, a measure of child "quality," wife's age at first birth, and child mortality. The findings of the study tend to lend support to the economic theory of fertility but contain certain peculiarities which indicate a need for further research.     

A Study of Reputational Community Leaders Using The Concepts of Exchange and Coordinative Positions*

The general purposes of this study were to investigate the group and organizational affiliates of reputed community leaders in a rural community. The specific hypotheses were that the higher one is ranked as a reputational leader, (1) the more exchange influence he will likely have accumulated through occupying economic, kinship, occupational, ownership, and political-governmental positions which are reputedly influential in the community, (2) the more likely he is to be an active participant in formal and/or informal coordinative interstitial groups in the community, and (3) the more likely he is to be an active participant in those formal coordinative groups which are reputed to be influential over community affairs. The hypotheses were tested by comparing the sets of rankings of twenty-eight reputational leaders with (1) their rankings in terms of exchange positions scores, (2) their rankings in terms of social participation scores, and (3) their rankings in terms of weighted social participation scores. The results of the study tended to support the hypotheses, as stated, for the community involved.     

Exact and approximate distributions of the chi-square statistic for equiprobability

The distribution of the chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic is studied in the equiprobable case. Tables of exact critical values are given for a = .1, .05, .01, .005; k = 2(1)4, N = 26(1)50; k = 5, N = 26(1)40; k = 6(1)10, N = 26(1)30, where a is the desired significance level, k is the number of cells and N is the sample size. Methods of fitting the true distribution are compared. If k> 3, it is found that a simple additive adjustment to the asymptotic chi-square fit leads to high accuracy even for N between 10 and 20. For k = 2, the Yates corrected chi-square statistic is very accurately fitted by the usual chi-square distribution.     

A Retrievable Recipe for Inverse t

Although the percentage points of the Student-t distribution have been widely tabulated, a simple approximation is given and derived in this article. The approximation can be re-derived easily, since it is based on the percentage points from the Gaussian distribution, and can thus be used for applications requiring non-integer degrees of freedom (e.g., Welch's two-sample t test) and for arbitrary significance levels (e.g., for Bonferroni multiple comparison procedures). Comparisons between this approximation and others suggested in the literature indicate three-digit accuracy for even small degrees of freedom and tail areas.     

Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence?

We analyze publicly available data to estimate the causal effects of military interventions on the homicide rates in certain problematic regions in Mexico. We use the Rubin causal model to compare the post-intervention homicide rate in each intervened region to the hypothetical homicide rate for that same year had the military intervention not taken place. Because the effect of a military intervention is not confined to the municipality subject to the intervention, a nonstandard definition of units is necessary to estimate the causal effect of the intervention under the standard no-interference assumption of stable-unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA). Donor pools are created for each missing potential outcome under no intervention, thereby allowing for the estimation of unit-level causal effects. A multiple imputation approach accounts for uncertainty about the missing potential outcomes.