A bayesian estimator for the dependence function of a bivariate extreme‐value distribution

Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set.     

Erhöht Globalisierung die Ungleichheit der Einkommen?

The article tests the thesis that globalization increases the earnings inequality of households. It extends the time series data set of Alderson and Nielsen (2002) who supported the globalization thesis. Alternative models provide no evidence that foreign trade, foreign investment, and migration increase inequality. The article gives reasons for these results and shows that OECD countries pass through an endogenous sectoral and demographic crisis in the transition to post-industrial service societies. Therefore, the paper adapts Kuznets’ theorem of sector dualism to the subsectors of the service economy. The polarization of value addition within the service sector appears as the crucial determinant of increased earnings inequality of households.     

Optimal designs for generalized linear models

Summary This paper solves some D-optimal design problems for certain Generalized Linear Models where the mean depends on two parameters and two explanatory variables. In all of the cases considered the support point of the optimal designs are found to be independent of the unknown parameters. While in some cases the optimal design measures are given by two points with equal weights, in others the support is given by three point with weights depending on the unknown parameters, hence the designs are locally optimal in general. Empirical results on the efficiency of the locally optimal designs are also given. Some of the designs found can also be used for planning D-optimal experiments for the normal linear model, where the mean must be positive. This research was carried out in part at University College, London as an M.Sc. project. Thanks are due to Prof. I. Ford (University of Glasgow) and Prof. A. Giovagnoli (University of Perugia) for their valuable suggestions and critical observations.     

Between Ideology and Pragmatism: The Politics of Dual Nationality in Germany1

This article discusses the policy and politics of dual nationality in Germany. It contrasts the policy reality, in which dual nationality is tolerated in a wide range of cases, with Germany's continued opposition in principle to this phenomenon. It then analyzes political, cultural and electoral factors to explain why this opposition persists despite these widespread exceptions. In conclusion, the article argues that by continuing formally to oppose dual nationalities, Germany in effect discourages naturalizations and thereby continues to operate a broadly exclusive citizenship.     

Communication apprehension and reactions to proxemic violations

An experiment was designed to examine the role of a person's predispositions toward communication in reactions to violations of proxemic expectations. Working with Burgoon's (1983) violations of nonverbal expectations model, Buller and Burgoon (1986) predicted that predispositions may bias evaluations of initiator reward and violation valence. Apprehensive individuals should unfavorably evaluate the initiator, negatively valence a violation and comply less, while nonapprehensive individuals should favorably evaluate the initiator, positively valence a violation, and comply more. Alternately, this paper proposes that predispositions may affect arousal-induction rather than initiator evaluation and violation valencing. Following Patterson (1983), apprehensives should experience more arousal and comply more to reduce the arousal, whereas nonapprehensives should experience less arousal and comply less. Four initiators engaged 90 subjects in experimental conversations which ended with a request for the subjects' signature on a petition. Initiators either remained at the normative distance, moved one seat closer, or moved one seat farther from the subject. Results showed that apprehensives and subjects experiencing close violations complied more, suggesting that communication apprehension influences arousal-induction. Communication apprehension had no main effect on perceptions of initiator attractiveness and similarity, implying that arousal not perceptions of the initiator is affected by predispositions toward communication. Initiator gender again emerged as an important characteristic which influences a subject's perceptions of initiator reward.