Naked reverse: unexpected plays for exceptional results

Following the herd is easy when it comes to business ventures. But if you really want to start something new, you must first carefully think it through. Learn some ways to do that before you set out on a new path.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

Effects of Alternative Policies on Income Redistribution: Evidence from Brazil

Despite recent successes, Brazilian income (cash) transfer policies remain controversial, and alternative approaches to income redistribution are being actively considered. This article contributes to this debate, analysing the effects of several alternative policies for income redistribution in the Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. Simulations were conducted consistent with the following policies: direct transfer of income, reduction of taxes, and incentives to agricultural exports. The results suggest that transfer of income is the most effective in promoting redistribution of income, with a positive impact on the level of welfare of the poorest households.     

Palliative and curative care nurses' attitudes toward dying and death in the hospital setting

This paper explores the errors involved in the approximation of both the maximum and sum of two independent Beta random variables, each by another Beta random variable. The principal area of application is the time analysis of PERT networks, and the results are interpreted and discussed in terms of this application. The error was found to be acceptable for the greater part of the range of the parameters involved. The results will help practitioners estimate the mean and standard deviation of the completion time of PERT networks.     

Is Managed Mental Health Treatment Psychotherapy?

The corporate takeover of mental health treatment has dramatically affected mental health treatment. Two essential constituents of psychotherapeutic process, the relationship between patient and therapist and the special communicative process associated with a talking treatment, have been significantly compromised. Therapists and patients are being forced to consider whether in the absence of confidentiality, self determination, and a secure treatment partnership managed mental health care can be called psychotherapy. Drawing on several detailed sessions from the managed treatment of a young woman, the writer concludes that the answer is no.     

Statistical and Historical Analyses of Nations Which Deviate From the Size-Density Law

We examine nations which deviate significantly from the ?2/3 sizedensity slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of timeminimization. We correct Stephan’s original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than ?2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.     

Perceived importance of “social goals” in business organizations

Business organizations operate within a complex socio-technical environment. Interactions between these socio-technical dimensions and the managers' personal value systems are thought to influence managerial role patterns and decisions. This paper investigates shifts in perceived importance of “social goals” from a set of organizational goals. The research concludes that there has been no significant changes occurring in either the ordering or the clustering of organizational goals.     

Quality improvement in patient distribution at a major university student health center

Healthcare in a major university setting poses unusual challenges and great opportunities. Two traditionally challenging areas in patient distribution are the initial intake of allergy/immunization patients and the triage of outpatients in the general medical clinic. The authors describe the use of the FOCUS-PDCA quality improvement (QI) problem-solving process for each situation. After identifying major problems, the health center established cross-functional teams of experts representing the allergy/immunization and general medical clinics. The teams analyzed the problems with a flow chart and undertook studies to further elucidate causes and potential solutions. They listed potential solutions in order of priority and submitted them to the student health center director for review and initiation. Each team then used the PDCA (plan-do-check-act) cycle to put approved solutions into effect. Permanent improvements made in each area resulted in a more effective and efficient patient distribution system, favorable staff comment, and greater patient satisfaction.     

Casual sex among Australian schoolies

This study of the casual sexual partnering of 570 male and 776 female Australian high school students on a schoolies week vacation expands on earlier research on factors that influence the sexual activity of vacationing youth. Over 60% of the men and nearly 40% of the women who engaged in sexual intercourse during schoolies week did so with a casual partner. We used logistic regression to test an expanded version of Triandis Theory of Interpersonal Behavior (TIB) in explaining casual sexual partnering. Situational experiences (similar to what others have called situational disinhibition), prior sexual experiences and intentions (similar to what others have called spillover) influenced casual sexual partnering. Different causal pathways were demonstrated for men and women.