Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Finfish: A Model of Raw Horse Mackerel Consumption in Japan

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose‐response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose‐response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures.     

Defining and organizing self-advocate centered groups: implications of survey research on self-advocacy groups in Japan

Ideally group members who have intellectual disabilities should have power in their self-advocacy groups, leading to groups that can be considered 'self-advocate centered.' Currently, not all self-advocacy groups can be considered self-advocate centered because group advisors have an overwhelming influence on group decisions. This article assumes that establishing self-advocacy groups in which members truly control the agenda and make key decisions is one of the most effective methods to empower people with intellectual disabilities. This study identifies factors useful in identifying 'self-advocate centered' groups, and especially focuses on the relationship between self-advocates and advisors. It is based on a quantitative research project conducted in Japan. According to the results of the research, though relational transformation between self-advocates and advisors was commonly seen in many self-advocacy groups, conflicts between them were scarcely observed. The meaning of relational transformation without conflicts is considered, along with the concepts of independence and interdependence.     

Power-divergence-type measure of departure from symmetry for square contingency tables that have nominal categories

For square contingency tables that have nominal categories, Tomizawa considered two kinds of measure to represent the degree of departure from symmetry. This paper proposes a generalization of those measures. The proposed measure is expressed by using the average of the power divergence of Cressie and Read, or the average of the diversity index of Patil and Taillie. Special cases of the proposed measure include Tomizawa's measures. The proposed measure would be useful for comparing the degree of departure from symmetry in several tables.     

Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break

In this paper we propose residual-based tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break against the alternative of no cointegration. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test is proposed and its limiting distribution is obtained for the case in which the timing of a structural break is known. Then the test statistic is extended to deal with a structural break of unknown timing. The test statistic, a plug-in version of the test statistic for known timing, replaces the true break point by the estimated one. We show the limiting properties of the test statistic under the null as well as the alternative. Critical values are calculated for the tests by simulation methods. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size of the test is close to the nominal one unless the regression error is very persistent and that the test rejects the null when no cointegrating relationship with a structural break is present. We provide empirical examples based on the present-value model, the term structure model, and the money-output relationship model.