A Methodology for Risk Analysis Based on Hybrid Bayesian Networks: Application to the Regasification System of Liquefied Natural Gas Onboard a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit

This article presents an iterative six‐step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.     

Preference reversals: Time and again

This paper sheds new light on the preference reversal phenomenon by analyzing decision times in the choice task. In a first experiment, we replicated the standard reversal pattern and found that choices associated with reversals take significantly longer than non-reversals, and non-reversal choices take longer whenever long-shot lotteries are selected. These results can be explained by a combination of noisy lottery evaluations (imprecise preferences) and an overpricing phenomenon associated with the compatibility hypothesis. The first cause explains the existence of reversals, while the second explains the predominance of a particular type thereof. A second experiment showed that the overpricing phenomenon can be shut down, greatly reducing reversals, by using ranking-based, ordinally-framed evaluation tasks. This experiment also disentangled the two determinants of reversals, because imprecise evaluations still deliver testable predictions on decision times even in the absence of the overpricing phenomenon. Strikingly, when unframed ranking tasks were used, decision times in the choice phase were greatly reduced, even though this phase was identical across treatments. This observation is consistent with psychological insights on conflicting decision processes.     

Poisson-mixed Inverse Gaussian Regression Model and Its Application

In this article, we have developed a Poisson-mixed inverse Gaussian (PMIG) distribution. The mixed inverse Gaussian distribution is a mixture of the inverse Gaussian distribution and its length-biased counterpart. A PMIG regression model is developed and the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is studied. A dataset dealing with the number of hospital stays among the elderly population is analyzed by using the PMIG and the PIG (Poisson-inverse Gaussian) regression models and it has been shown that the PMIG model fits the data better than the PIG model.     

Food Well-Being in Older Adults: Effects of a Universal Non-contributory Pension in Mexico

Social Indicators Research - One of the few universal programs in Latin America is the Food Pension for Adults Older than 68 (PAAM) of Mexico City, which aims to reduce food insecurity while...     

L'évaluation par le client comme méthode de surveillance: les enjeux de la réputation numérique du travailleur à la lumière du Règlement général sur la protection des données de l'Union européenne

L'évaluation du travailleur par le client ou l'employeur ainsi que la publication des avis qui en résultent constituent une méthode de contrôle et de surveillance qui pose de multiples problèmes au regard du droit européen. Sous couvert d'une approche client, elle soumet le travailleur à une surveillance de tous les instants, qui va bien au‐delà de ce qui prévaut dans un cadre de travail classique. L'auteur examine les enjeux de la question à la lumière du Règlement général sur la protection des données de l'Union européenne (UE), qui fixe des limites très précises à la collecte et la publication d'informations concernant les travailleurs.     

How Perceptions Matter: Organizational Vulnerability and Practices of Resilience in the Field of Migration

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This article presents a qualitative analysis of the practices of civil society organizations (CSOs) to integrate migrants...     

Developing Public Relations 2.0: Practitioners’ perceptions on the implementation of interactive communication strategies

This study employs a qualitative Delphi panel to explore the perceptions of interactive agency executives on the adoption of online interactivity within the communication practices of companies of all trades in one of the biggest European media markets (Spain). The results highlight the serious challenges these practices pose to organizations and identify internal and external factors that affect the decision-making process. The study argues that actors’ definitions of interactivity are crucial in shaping Public Relations 2.0.     

An Examination of Factors Affecting Economic Status and Finances Satisfaction of Families: A Comparison of Metropolitan and Rural Areas

Research on the family financial management behavior has gained a great impetus over 30 years. There has been a growing interest in the question of how families organize or manage their economic resources and financial satisfaction. The main purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting financial behaviors and financial satisfaction of families who live in metropolitan and rural areas. Participants in the study consist of women who are married and dwelling in Ankara and Karabuk cities of Turkey. A total of 3,046 female (with an approximate 87 % participation rate) are participated in the study on a voluntary (Ankara n = 1,300; Karabuk n = 1,746). Results indicated that 45.4 % of females have determined that economic decision making are always shared by couples (Ankara 41.9 %; Karabuk 47.9 %). Among women who lived in Ankara (62.3 %) have not saving their income, while the group of Karabuk (51.4 %) have sometimes saving. Similar results have been found in terms of the expenditure behaviors among the families who are living in both of the metropolitan and rural areas. The rates of the families living both in Ankara and Karabuk who state that they have become indebted due to various reasons (Ankara 56.5 %; Karabuk 72.9 %) is higher compared to those who state they have not become indebted. Among the females who stated that they are “very dissatisfied” from their savings behavior, “satisfied” with their expenditure behaviors and “dissatisfied” with their debt behaviors are higher percentage (50.6 %, 47.9 %, and 48.3 % respectively).