International Migrant Remittances and Labour Supply in Nigeria

The study analyses how remittances to Nigeria affect the labour supply of recipients using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and a Log‐Linear regression model, with data from the 2013 Nigerian General Household Survey. The PSM results show that for the entire sample, the difference between the average amount of labour supplied per week by those that receive remittances and the amount they would have supplied without remittances is insignificant. The marginal impact analysis also shows that, ceteris paribus, the average labour supply for all recipients is inelastic to remittances. The results from the sub‐group analysis, however, show that receiving remittances negatively affects the labour supply of the self‐employed in agriculture, teenagers and the elderly. These results led us to the recommendation that policies to increase the inflow of remittances should be encouraged but in tandem with programmes to educate farmers on the benefit of investing remittances received in their farming business.     

Who does not cut down? Comparing characteristics and drinking motives of drinkers and abstainers during the exam periods

Objective: Drinking alcohol during the exams can affect academic performance and future career options, but is rarely investigated. Drinking motives, sociodemographics and personality characteristics are investigated in nonabstainers and weekly drinkers during the exams. Participants: 7,181 Belgian university students who anonymously responded to an email invitation to an online survey. Methods: Logistic regressions and mixed design analysis of variance on cross-sectional data. Results: One-third of the students continued drinking during the exams, with 40% drinking weekly. Nonabstainers were mainly men, elder, internally motivated when drinking, and housed with parents or independently. Weekly drinkers were similar, except mainly housed in student apartments or independently. Personality characteristics were nonsignificant. All drinking motives were less pronounced during the exams, with smaller differences for internal motives. Conclusions: Mainly linked to internal drinking motives, drinking during the exams in higher education is underestimated. The characteristics and motives of students doing so can be used in future interventions.     

Long‐Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

We analyze the direct and indirect demographic contribution of immigration to the foreign‐origin composition of the Canadian population according to various projection scenarios over a century, from 2006 to 2106. More specifically, we use Statistics Canada's Demosim microsimulation model to assess the long‐term sensitivity to immigration levels and the frequency of mixed unions of the share of immigrants in Canada and of persons who have at least one ancestor who arrived after 2006. The results of the simulations show that the population renewal process through immigration happens at a fast pace in a high immigration and low fertility country such as Canada. Under the scenarios developed, immigrants who entered after 2006 and their descendants could form the majority of the population by 2058 at the earliest and by 2079 at the latest and could represent between 62 percent and 88 percent in 2106. They also show that mixed unions are a key element of the speed at which the changes are likely to occur in the long run.     

Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

Communicating Worst-Case Scenarios: Neighbors'' Views of Industrial Accident Management

The prospect of industrial accidents motivated the U.S. Congress to require in the Clean Air Act of 1990 that manufacturing facilities develop Risk Management Plans (RMP) to submit to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) by July 1999. Industry worried that the requirement to communicate to the public a "worst-case scenario" would arouse unnecessary and counterproductive fears among industry neighbors. We report here the results of focus groups and surveys with such neighbors, focusing particularly upon their reactions to messages about a hypothetical worst-case scenario and management of these risks by industry, government, and other parties. Our findings confirmed our hypotheses that citizens would be skeptical of the competence and trustworthiness of these managers and that this stance would color their views of industrial-facility accident risks. People with job ties to industry or who saw industrial benefits to the community as exceeding its risks had more positive views of industrial risks, but still expressed great concern about the risk and doubt about accident management. Notwithstanding these reactions, overall respondents welcomed this and other related information, which they wanted their local industries to supply. Respondents were not more reassured by additional text describing management of accidents by government and industry. However, respondents did react very positively to the concept of community oversight to review plant safety. Claims about the firm's moral obligation or financial self-interest in preventing accidents were also received positively. Further research on innovative communication and management of accident risks is warranted by these results, even before recent terrorist attacks made this topic more salient.     

The Effect of Drop-Out on the Efficiency of Longitudinal Experiments

It is shown that drop-out often reduces the efficiency of longitudinal experiments considerably. In the framework of linear mixed models, a general, computationally simple method is provided, for designing longitudinal studies when drop-out is to be expected, such that there is little risk of large losses of efficiency due to the missing data. All the results are extensively illustrated using data from a randomized experiment with rats.     

Easy to Declare,Difficult to Implement: The Disconnect Between the Aspirations of the Paris Declaration and Donor Practice in Nigeria

The arguments in academia over the effectiveness of foreign aid fall into two broad categories: those grounded in political economy and those focused on donor conduct and aid effectiveness. There have been policy attempts within the donor community to reconcile them, including the 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. This article examines the key features of foreign aid to Nigeria between 1999 and 2007. Using the Declaration as a framework, it looks for ways of making foreign aid in Nigeria more effective.     

Using repeated-prevalence data in multi-state modeling of renal replacement therapy

Multi-state models help predict future numbers of patients requiring specific treatments but these models require exhaustive incidence data. Deriving reliable predictions from repeated-prevalence data would be helpful. A new method to model the number of patients that switch between therapeutic modalities using repeated-prevalence data is presented and illustrated. The parameters and goodness of fit obtained with the new method and repeated-prevalence data were compared to those obtained with the classical method and incidence data. The multi-state model parameters’ confidence intervals obtained with annually collected repeated-prevalence data were wider than those obtained with incidence data and six out of nine pairs of confidence intervals did not overlap. However, most parameters were of the same order of magnitude and the predicted patient distributions among various renal replacement therapies were similar regardless of the type of data used. In the absence of incidence data, a multi-state model can still be successfully built with annually collected repeated-prevalence data to predict the numbers of patients requiring specific treatments. This modeling technique can be extended to other chronic diseases.     

Position in formal structure, personal characteristics and choices of advisors in a law firm: A logistic regression model for dyadic network data

This paper presents a statistical model for the analysis of binary sociometric choice data, the p₂ model, which provides a flexible way for using explanatory variables to model network structure. It is applied to examine the influence of the formal structure of an organization on interactions among its members. It is shown to provide a general and precise method for addressing this substantive issue. We identify the respective effects of position in the formal structure (status, seniority, division of work and office membership) and selected personal characteristics of members of a corporate law firm on their choices of advisors. Flows of advice are shown to be consistently shaped by status games and the pecking order in the firm. Other dimensions help members in mitigating the effect of this strong rule. This approach ultimately provides more understanding of how members of such firms try to balance cooperation and competition in terms of access to and management of key resources.