Teaching population dynamics with a simulation exercise

Because many students learn general points best by an empirical demonstration rather than by a purely analytical approach, most of the mysteries of the formation and the evolution of a population under the action of mortality and fertility can be conveniently demonstrated on a computer in the form of population projections under various assumptions. Such an exercise can be simple and yet constitute a powerful teaching tool. Not only will it enable the student to observe the effects of central demographic processes but also it will serve to integrate through concrete applications many of the more technical concepts usually covered in an introductory population course, but rarely made meaningful to average beginning students. An easily administrable exercise along these lines is described in hopes that other instructors in population courses will find it as useful a teaching device as we did.     

Mapping Colombian Citizens’ Views Regarding Ordinary Corruption: Threat,Bribery, and the Illicit Sharing of Confidential Information

A few studies conducted in France, Latin America, China and Sub-Saharan Africa have examined the extent to which specific behaviors by politicians, state officials, professionals or simple citizens were considered by the public either as corrupt/intolerable or acceptable/tolerable. These studies have shown a great diversity of positions among participants, ranging from “zero tolerability” to “non-zero tolerability”, to high tolerance to favoritism, and to complete tolerability. The present study analyzed Colombian lay persons’ views as a function of three separate factors characterizing acts of corruption: (a) the current status or position in society of the person who behaved in a corrupt way (politician, judge, entrepreneur or ordinary citizen), (b) the motive behind the act of corruption (nepotism or monetary gain), and (c) the means used for obtaining the underserved benefit (threatening the person, bribery or illicitly sharing of confidential information). As expected, four qualitatively different perspectives were identified. The first one (60 % of the participants) was the expected Zero Tolerance view because all acceptability ratings were extremely low. The second one (32 %) was called Never Very Tolerable because ratings, although always low, varied as a function of the means used: Threat and bribery were considered as more intolerable than use of information. The third one (7 %) was called Depends on Means because the ratings were affected by the means used to a larger extent than in the preceding case. The fourth one (1 %) was called Always Tolerable because in all cases, the ratings were high. In no cases did acceptability depend much on the status of the person performing the corrupt act or of the motives behind the act. Although only a small minority of participants agreed with the last two views, it is probably enough to create a climate of suspicion in the country.     

The World Health Organization and the Globalization of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease

Chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low‐ and middle‐income countries have recently provoked a surge of public interest. This article examines the policy literature—notably the archives and publications of the World Health Organization (WHO), which has dominated this field—to analyze the emergence and consolidation of this new agenda. Starting with programs to control cardiovascular disease in the 1970s, experts from Eastern and Western Europe had by the late 1980s consolidated a program for the prevention of NCD risk factors at the WHO. NCDs remained a relatively minor concern until the collaboration of World Bank health economists with WHO epidemiologists led to the Global Burden of Disease study that provided an “evidentiary breakthrough” for NCD activism by quantifying the extent of the problem. Soon after, WHO itself, facing severe criticism, underwent major reform. NCD advocacy contributed to revitalizing WHO's normative and coordinative functions. By leading a growing advocacy coalition, within which The Lancet played a key role, WHO established itself as a leading institution in this domain. However, ever‐widening concern with NCDs has not yet led to major reallocation of funding in favor of NCD programs in the developing world.     

Addictive Substances,Users’ Health,and the Government’s Perceived Responsibility: French People’s Perspective

This paper uses a semiparametric latent variable transformation model for multiple outcomes to examine the effect of education and maternal education on female multidimensional well-being and proposes a procedure to build a well-being index that is less susceptible to functional form misspecification. We model multidimensional well-being as an unobserved common factor underlying the observed well-being outcomes. The semiparametric methodology allows us to alleviate misspecification bias by combining multiple indicators into a latent construct in an unspecified, data-driven way. Using data from female participants of the 1974–2010 waves of the US General Social Survey, we find that education, intelligence, and maternal education contribute positively to multidimensional well-being. However, the effects of education and maternal education on female multidimensional well-being declined steadily between the mid-1970s and the 1990s, and have not rebounded since.     

Optimal income taxation with Kalai wage bargaining and endogenous participation

This paper characterizes the optimal redistributive tax schedule in a search–matching framework where (voluntary) nonparticipation and (involuntary) unemployment are endogenous and wages are determined by proportional bargaining à la Kalai. The optimal employment tax rate is given by an inverse elasticity rule. This rule depends on the global response of the employment rate, which depends not only on the participation (labor supply) responses, but also on the vacancy posting (labor demand) responses and on the product of these two responses. For plausible values of the parameters, our matching environment induces much lower employment tax rates than the usual competitive model with endogenous participation only. However, optimal employment tax rates are larger (in absolute value) when a given level of the global elasticity of employment is more due to search frictions and less due to participation responses.     

Polygyny and Fertility Among the Sereer of Senegal

The population laboratory of Ngayokhème, in Senegal, has been observed longitudinally since 1962. Information on marital status at the time of birth (rather than at the time of a survey) is used to examine the effect of polygyny on fertility. Although plural marriages are less fertile and the rank order of the wife has an effect, the mechanism appears to operate through the age difference of the spouses and the greater likelihood of temporary separate residence in the case of polygynous marriages. An examination of birth intervals suggests that the lower fecundity of older men, rather than a reduction of the frequency of intercourse, is the main factor. However, there is little relation between the fertility of different wives of the same polygynists.     

Forgiving Perpetrators of Violence: Colombian People’s Positions

Colombian people’s positions regarding the granting of forgiveness to persons who have been more or less actively involved in the violence that ravaged the country during the past 60 years were examined. Four hundred lay people living in Bogota were presented with 48 concrete cases in which a former perpetrator of violence (a member of the guerillas, the paramilitary, the military or a drug cartel) asked for forgiveness from a victim’s family. These cases were constructed using a three-factor orthogonal design: Degree of Responsibility × Severity of the Negative Acts Committed × Apologies. Four basic positions were found. The most common one, which was shared by nearly 40 % of the sample, mostly people from the wealthier segments of society, was “no forgiveness under any condition”. Eighteen percent of the participants, mostly from the poorest segments of society, considered that forgiveness could be granted each time the former perpetrators expressed true repentance (and, in the case of former organizers, if they have offered adequate compensation and had not committed very severe crimes). This was the most frequently observed attitude when perpetrators were former members of the paramilitary. Fifteen percent of the participants considered that forgiveness should be systematically granted. Finally, 28 % of the participants were undecided about the issue.     

French People’s Positions Regarding National Policies About Illicit Drugs: A Preliminary Study

French people’s positions regarding actual and potential drug policies were examined. Adults (N = 225) aged 18–81 were presented with 28 vignettes that were composed according to a three within-subject orthogonal factor design: (a) demand for drugs in the country, (b) information campaigns regarding their dangerousness, and (c) current state policy regarding soft and hard drugs, from “laissez faire” policy for all drugs to complete prohibition of all drugs. Participants rated the level of acceptability of each policy. Three clusters were identified. The first one (32 % of participants) was called “Radical Constructionists” because participants considered that all policies were unacceptable. The second one (26 %) was called “Prohibitionists” because only one drug policy was considered fully acceptable: Complete prohibition with the condition that information campaigns are conducted. The third cluster (42 %) was called “Regulationists” because only one drug policy was considered as fully acceptable: Complete state regulation (with the same condition). In all clusters, the “laissez-faire” policy was always judged as the least acceptable one, even when it was just about soft drugs. The strongest opposition observed was not between prohibition and regulation but between “laissez-faire” on the one hand and regulation and prohibition on the other hand. Methodological implications and implications for decision-makers are discussed.     

EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH UNEMPLOYMENT,ENDOGENOUS PARTICIPATION,AND LABOR MARKET FLOWS

The sustainability of welfare states requires high employment and high participation to raise the tax base. To analyze labor supply in a world with market frictions, we propose and solve a macro model of the labor market with unemployment and labor force participation as endogenous and distinct states. In our world, workers' decisions of participating are determined by an entry decision and an exit decision. A calibration of the model improves the usual representations of labor markets, since it quantitatively accounts for the observed flows between employment and nonparticipation. The paper investigates also the effect of payroll taxes and unemployment benefits on participation decisions. Taxes reduce entries and increase exits, whereas unemployment benefits, at a given job‐finding rate, raise entries and have ambiguous effects on exits. (JEL: J2, J6)