Estimation Procedure for a Multiple Time Series Model

Given a multiple time series sharing common autoregressive patterns, we estimate an additive model. The autoregressive component and the individual random effects are estimated by integrating maximum likelihood estimation and best linear unbiased predictions in a backfitting algorithm. The simulation study illustrated that the estimation procedure provides an alternative to the Arellano–Bond generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator of the panel model when T > N and the Arellano–Bond generally diverges. The estimator has high predictive ability. In cases where T ≤ N, the backfitting estimator is at least comparable to Arellano–Bond estimator.     

Estimation in nonlinear mixed-effects models using heavy-tailed distributions

Nonlinear mixed-effects models are very useful to analyze repeated measures data and are used in a variety of applications. Normal distributions for random effects and residual errors are usually assumed, but such assumptions make inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. In this work, we introduce an extension of a normal nonlinear mixed-effects model considering a subclass of elliptical contoured distributions for both random effects and residual errors. This elliptical subclass, the scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions, includes heavy-tailed multivariate distributions, such as Student-t, the contaminated normal and slash, among others, and represents an interesting alternative to outliers accommodation maintaining the elegance and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. We propose an exact estimation procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the fixed-effects and variance components, using a stochastic approximation of the EM algorithm. We compare the performance of the normal and the SMN models with two real data sets.     

More Powerful Forces? Women,Nonviolence, and Mobilization

In this survey of studies of women's nonviolent mobilization, I scrutinize “more powerful forces,” the mobilizing forces of marginalized social actors that add to and make possible the development of broad‐based people power. The study of people power has yet to extensively consider the contribution of marginalized social actors. Specifically, I ask: (i) What do women contribute to the development of nonviolent protest power and (ii) What can we learn about mobilizing power, the power of people to protest nonviolently and gain the franchise they seek, when we expand our analytical lens to incorporate women's roles? How do we account for the gendered but often unseen actions taken by marginalized social actors? My focus on women in nonviolent mobilization stems directly from my research on gendered invisibility with an empirical focus on women's gendered socialization. Here, I review how gendered social structures shape women's power of participation and success in nonviolent mobilization.     

The Role and Implications of Values-based Leadership

This paper aims at analysing conceptually spiritual leadership in the organizational field. First, we identify if a relation between spirituality and leadership can exist and then if and how this influences employer/employees reciprocal behaviour. In the early years, the focus has changed, trying to deepen the differences between religion and spirituality and emphasizing the last one as a source of success for leaders. We focused on the understanding of the effects that spirituality has on the system of values and the role of values and emotions in determining a successful leader. Finally, we emphasize the role of values-based leadership capabilities within strategic management, aiming at highlighting the importance of a shared system of values in leading employees.     

Fempress: a communication strategy for women

In 1981, two Chilean women living in exile in Mexico started Fempress, the Latin American Media Network which puts out a monthly magazine, operates a press service on women's issues, and provides a Radio Press Service which covers Latin America. The monthly magazine, Mujer-Fempress, started out as 200 copies of a xeroxed bulletin and now runs 5000 copies per issue. This magazine has played an important role in achieving communication within the far-flung women's movement in Latin American. Early in its existence, Fempress began to concentrate on creating alternative media channels as a means of empowering women through raising awareness and stimulating change. Since the market will not support such alternative work, Fempress is dependent upon international cooperation for funding.     

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981–2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981–2010, 2011–2040, and 2041–2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041–2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.     

An AHP-based evaluation procedure for Innovative Educational Projects: A face-to-face vs. computer-mediated case study

In this paper a procedure to evaluate proposals for Educational Innovation Projects is proposed. This methodology should help the Institute of Educational Sciences of the Politechnical University of Valencia to choose the best Educational Project, the final aim being to provide the Administration with a stringent evaluation methodology, since the current evaluation methodology was found to be neither sufficiently objective nor systematic.     

The two-sided power distribution for the treatment of the uncertainty in PERT

The aim of this paper is to include the Two-Sided Power (TSP) distribution in the PERT methodology making use of the advantages that this four-parameter distribution offers. In order to be completely determined, a distribution of this type needs, the same as the beta distribution, a new datum apart from the three usual values a (pessimistic), m (most likely) and b (optimistic). To solve this question, when using the beta distribution in the PERT context, we are looking for the maximum similarity with the normal and so it is required that the distribution has the same variance as the normal or its same kurtosis, giving rise to the constant variance and mesokurtic families, respectively. Nevertheless, while this approach can be only applied to the beta distribution for some values in the range of the standardized mode, in the case of the TSP distribution this methodology leads always to a solution. A detailed analysis comparing the beta and TSP distribution based on their PERT means and variances is presented indicating better results for the second. We are very grateful for the comments and suggestions of two anonymous referees.