Concentration function and sensitivity to the prior

Summary In robust bayesian analysis, ranges of quantities of interest (e. g. posterior means) are usually considered when the prior probability measure varies in a class Γ. Such quantities describe the variation of just one aspect of the posterior measure. The concentration function describes changes in the posterior probability measure more globally, detecting differences in probability concentration and providing, simultaneously, bounds on the posterior probability of all measurable subsets. In this paper, we present a novel use of the concentration function, and two concentration indices, to study such posterior changes for a general class Γ, restricting then our attention to some ∈-contamination classes of priors.     

Interacting multiple try algorithms with different proposal distributions

We introduce a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which is designed to increase the efficiency of a modified multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) sampler. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC literature is twofold. First, the sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by allowing for different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step. Second, we exploit the different proposal distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods and builds connections with the rapidly expanding world of adaptive MCMC. We show the validity of the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the different proposals. The numerical studies show that the interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space leading to higher efficiency than other competing algorithms.     

Absolutely Continuous Copulas with Given Diagonal Sections

Necessary and sufficient conditions are given in order to ensure that a function δ:[0, 1] → [0, 1] is the diagonal section of an absolutely continuous copula. Explicit constructions are provided.     

Stochastic Evolution of Rules for Playing Finite Normal Form Games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments of stochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal form games that arise. It is shown that many of the “folk results” of evolutionary game theory, typically obtained with a fixed game and fixed strategies, carry over to the present environments. The results are also related to some recent experiments on rules and games.      

Designing the venue logistics management operations for a World Exposition

World Expositions, due to their size and peculiar features, pose a number of logistics challenges. This paper aims at developing a design framework for the venue logistics management (VLM) operations to replenish food products to the event site, through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research approaches. First, an in-depth interview methodology, combined with the outcomes of a literature review, is adopted for defining the key variables for the tactical and operational set-up of the VLM system. Second, a quantitative approach is developed to define the necessary logistics resources. The framework is then applied to the case of Milan 2015 World Exposition. It is the first time that such a design framework for a World Exposition is presented: the originality of this research lies in the proposal of a systematic approach that adds to the experiential practices constituting the current body of knowledge on event logistics.     

Strategic adaptation as a partially rational process

Limits to the action of strategic adaptation derive essentially from the temporal and dimensional complexity of the system of the firm. Consequently, a ‘temporal/organizational area decision-making matrix’ has been developed and decisions classified accordingly. Problem-solving approaches adopted in facing complexity and uncertainty appear to be based mainly on the criterion of simplification and on that which ensues of decomposition. Measures currently applied in the process of simplification are examined, including utilization of models. Extra-rational or even irrational elements intervene in the process of strategic adaptation, caused primarily by complexity and by the social-heuristic nature of planning. Basic areas in which extra-rational elements (such as personal opinions, imagination and intuition) play an essential role are singled out and appropriate organizational mechanisms are identified which could assist in attaining the maximum synergic effect from the combined application of rational and extra-rational contributions to planning.     

The Easterlin Paradox in Italy,or the Paradox in Measuring? Define Happiness Before Investigating It

Social Indicators Research - The Easterlin paradox (Easterlin, in: Paul, Reder (eds) Nations and household in economic growth: essay in honor of Moses Abramovitz, Academic Press, New York, 1974),...     

Circadian Rhythms,Sleep, and Cognitive Skills: Evidence From an Unsleeping Giant

This study analyzes the effects of sleep duration on cognitive skills and depression symptoms of older workers in urban China. Cognitive skills and mental health have been associated with sleep duration and are known to be strongly related to economic behavior and performance. However, causal evidence is lacking, and little is known about sleep deprivation in developing countries. We exploit the relationship between circadian rhythms and bedtime to identify the effects of sleep using sunset time as an instrument. Using the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we show that a later sunset time significantly reduces sleep duration and that sleep duration increases cognitive skills and eases depression symptoms of workers aged 45 years and older. The results are driven by employed individuals living in urban areas, who are more likely to be constrained by rigid work schedules. We find no evidence of significant effects on the self-employed, non-employed, or farmers.     

International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets

Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1992), Baxter and Crucini (1995), and Stockman and Tesar (1995) find two major discrepancies between standard international business cycle models with complete markets and the data: In the models, cross‐country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true; and cross‐country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper introduces a friction into a standard model that helps resolve these anomalies. The friction is that international loans are imperfectly enforceable; any country can renege on its debts and suffer the consequences for future borrowing. To solve for equilibrium in this economy with endogenous incomplete markets, the methods of Marcet and Marimon (1999) are extended. Incorporating the friction helps resolve the anomalies more than does exogenously restricting the assets that can be traded.