Risk‐Based Approach for Microbiological Food Safety Management in the Dairy Industry: The Case of Listeria monocytogenes in Soft Cheese Made from Pasteurized Milk

According to Codex Alimentarius Commission recommendations, management options applied at the process production level should be based on good hygiene practices, HACCP system, and new risk management metrics such as the food safety objective. To follow this last recommendation, the use of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is an appealing approach to link new risk‐based metrics to management options that may be applied by food operators. Through a specific case study, Listeria monocytogenes in soft cheese made from pasteurized milk, the objective of the present article is to practically show how quantitative risk assessment could be used to direct potential intervention strategies at different food processing steps. Based on many assumptions, the model developed estimates the risk of listeriosis at the moment of consumption taking into account the entire manufacturing process and potential sources of contamination. From pasteurization to consumption, the amplification of a primo‐contamination event of the milk, the fresh cheese or the process environment is simulated, over time, space, and between products, accounting for the impact of management options, such as hygienic operations and sampling plans. A sensitivity analysis of the model will help orientating data to be collected prioritarily for the improvement and the validation of the model. What‐if scenarios were simulated and allowed for the identification of major parameters contributing to the risk of listeriosis and the optimization of preventive and corrective measures.     

Personality and Life Events as Predictors of Adolescents’ Life Satisfaction: Do Life Events Mediate the Link Between Personality and Life Satisfaction?

This study examined the association among personality traits, life events and life satisfaction, and the underlying pathways from personality traits to life satisfaction. A total of 1,961 adolescents were recruited from 21 secondary schools in Hong Kong. The adolescent version of the Chinese Personality Assessment Inventory (CPAI-A), the Chinese Adolescent Life Events Checklist (CALEC) and the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) were employed to assess their personality, life events and life satisfaction, respectively. Multiple regression analysis showed there was an additional value of the indigenously derived scales of CPAI-A, including the Family Orientation, Harmony and Ren-Qing scales, in predicting life satisfaction beyond the universal personality traits. Results also indicated that there was a partial mediation effect of negative life events on personality traits in the prediction of life satisfaction.     

Contributions of Family Factors to Career Readiness: A Cross‐Cultural Comparison

The authors examined the contributions of perceived family intrusiveness to career decision‐making difficulties (CDMD) and the mediating effect of family orientation as a personality trait in different cultural settings. In Study 1, a web‐based survey of 1,563 Hong Kong college students showed that perceived family intrusiveness significantly contributed to CDMD. This relationship was mediated by the relational personality trait emphasizing family orientation. Study 2 compared this pattern of relationship between a Hong Kong sample of 392 college students and a U.S. sample of 367 college students. The mediation model was only supported in the Hong Kong sample. Specifically, although the contributions of family intrusiveness to CDMD were demonstrated across the 2 cultural settings, the significant influences of family orientation were only supported in the Hong Kong sample. Implications for career development and counseling with college students from different cultural backgrounds are discussed.     

The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality

We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.     

Human mobility and environmental change: a survey of perceptions and policy direction

Population and Environment - Research concerning human mobility in the context of environmental change is primarily focused on analyses of the nexus itself. We have taken a less-travelled route,...     

Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections

We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e ₀) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970–2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e ₀ (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e ₀ for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e ₀ in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.     

Universal domination of stein-type estimators

For the problem of estimating the location parameter of a p-variate spherically symmetric distribution (p>3), Hwang (1985) established the dominance of some positive-part James-Stein (1961) estimators over the usual estimator simultaneously under a very general class of loss function. Vie show that many of his results can be extended to a class of positive-part Baranchik-type estimators (1970).     

Quantitative Risk Assessment Relating to Adventitious Presence of Allergens in Food: A Probabilistic Model Applied to Peanut in Chocolate

Peanut allergy is a public health concern, owing to the high prevalence in France and the severity of the reactions. Despite peanut-containing product avoidance diets, a risk may exist due to the adventitious presence of peanut allergens in a wide range of food products. Peanut is not mentioned in their ingredients list, but precautionary labeling is often present. A method of quantifying the risk of allergic reactions following the consumption of such products is developed, taking the example of peanut in chocolate tablets. The occurrence of adventitious peanut proteins in chocolate and the dose-response relationship are estimated with a Bayesian approach using available published data. The consumption pattern is described by the French individual consumption survey INCA2. Risk simulations are performed using second-order Monte Carlo simulations, which separately propagates variability and uncertainty of the model input variables. Peanut allergens occur in approximately 36% of the chocolates, leading to a mean exposure level of 0.2 mg of peanut proteins per eating occasion. The estimated risk of reaction averages 0.57% per eating occasion for peanut-allergic adults. The 95% values of the risk stand between 0 and 3.61%, which illustrates the risk variability. The uncertainty, represented by the 95% credible intervals, is concentrated around these risk estimates. Children have similar results. The conclusion is that adventitious peanut allergens induce a risk of reaction for a part of the French peanut-allergic population. The method developed can be generalized to assess the risk due to the consumption of every foodstuff potentially contaminated by allergens.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Haemolytic and Uremic Syndrome Linked to O157:H7 and Non‐O157:H7 Shiga‐Toxin Producing Escherichia coli Strains in Raw Milk Soft Cheeses

Shiga‐toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) strains may cause human infections ranging from simple diarrhea to Haemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS). The five main pathogenic serotypes of STEC (MPS‐STEC) identified thus far in Europe are O157:H7, O26:H11, O103:H2, O111:H8, and O145:H28. Because STEC strains can survive or grow during cheese making, particularly in soft cheeses, a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to assess the risk of HUS associated with the five MPS‐STEC in raw milk soft cheeses. A baseline scenario represents a theoretical worst‐case scenario where no intervention was considered throughout the farm‐to‐fork continuum. The risk level assessed with this baseline scenario is the risk‐based level. The impact of seven preharvest scenarios (vaccines, probiotic, milk farm sorting) on the risk‐based level was expressed in terms of risk reduction. Impact of the preharvest intervention ranges from 76% to 98% of risk reduction with highest values predicted with scenarios combining a decrease of the number of cow shedding STEC and of the STEC concentration in feces. The impact of postharvest interventions on the risk‐based level was also tested by applying five microbiological criteria (MC) at the end of ripening. The five MCs differ in terms of sample size, the number of samples that may yield a value larger than the microbiological limit, and the analysis methods. The risk reduction predicted varies from 25% to 96% by applying MCs without preharvest interventions and from 1% to 96% with combination of pre‐ and postharvest interventions.     

Lottery marketing in Québec and social deprivation: excessive exposure,insufficient protection?

In 2008, the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) undertook a research programme on lotteries. The preliminary qualitative exploratory component enabled us to observe the diversity and ubiquity of lottery advertising to which the vast majority of the population is exposed, including minors and non-players. The aim of a second component was to better comprehend the relationships between exposure to lottery marketing, lottery purchasing habits, attitudes towards gambling, and socio-economic vulnerability indicators. The study's data was collected by a polling firm from a representative sample of adults in the Québec population (n = 2001). Our survey revealed significant links between exposure, gambling behaviour and certain socio-economic indicators: for example, individuals with lower levels of education more often play the lotteries and spend the most on them. In addition, a greater number of people who are less educated and from a low-income household considered that lottery advertising was very or excessively present in their daily lives and that the amount of advertising has increased in recent years. From the perspective of creating healthy environments and protecting vulnerable populations, legislative measures to control the quantity, location and contents of gambling marketing would be promising preventive measures.