How corporate planning responds to uncertainty

This article is based upon an SSRC research project into the influence of computer methods on decision making. During this research, information on the planning systems of a cross-section of British industry was obtained.The paper illustrates how managers in these firms were coping with planning in the present conditions of extreme uncertainty about the future, combined with adverse economic and business conditions. Conventional planning theory, together with some modern observations on it, are briefly described and then the paper shows how, in the firms visited, the structure of planning was more complex than this theory.It goes on to show that today's critical conditions were not leading to management putting aside their plans and computer models and “muddling through’. They were actually leading to an acceleration in the adoption of formal planning and decision making methods but in a somewhat different manner to conventional planning theory.Seven different modes of planning were identified with integrated operational planning being the most common, possibly the most essential to survival and sometimes the only planning possible into today's conditions. A trend to extend the operational plan to 2 to 3 years and to reduce the firm's long range plan from 5 to 3 years was also observed.Long range plans were being considered as planning and decision making tools and not as blue-prints of the firm's future, as accurate long range forecasting was impossible. Three types of strategic planning were identified with that carried out at intervals probably being the most appropriate for medium sized firms in today's conditions.     

Production planning in practice

The changes and pressures facing the manufacturing and engineering industries today are increasing the importance of effective aggregate manpower and production planning. Several different theoretical optimisation models to tackle this problem have been described in detail in the literature but there have been few applications of them in practice.The reasons for this are many but include: the difficulty in expressing managements' conflicting and mixed objectives in an objective function; the necessity to oversimplify real life systems to enable these methods to be used; the simplistic approach to manpower planning used in these models; the difficulty in gaining managements' acceptance and finally the fact that what management actually wants is a tool to assist them in planning and decision making.What is being used by many managements is a case-study deterministic simulation model. Many companies are adopting this type of model for all types of planning and twelve out of twenty-seven companies visited in a research project described in this paper were using this type of model for aggregate manpower and production planning. It is proving to be an effective management tool and is being readily accepted principally because modern specialised financial modelling languages are enabling these models to be built, understood and used by non-specialist managers.     

Experimental payment protocols and the Bipolar Behaviorist

If someone claims that individuals behave as if they violate the independence axiom (IA) when making decisions over simple lotteries, it is invariably on the basis of experiments and theories that must assume the IA through the use of the random lottery incentive mechanism (RLIM). We refer to someone who holds this view as a Bipolar Behaviorist, exhibiting pessimism about the axiom when it comes to characterizing how individuals directly evaluate two lotteries in a binary choice task, but optimism about the axiom when it comes to characterizing how individuals evaluate multiple lotteries that make up the incentive structure for a multiple-task experiment. We reject the hypothesis about subject behavior underlying this stance: we find that preferences estimated with a model that assumes violations of the IA are significantly affected when one elicits choices with procedures that require the independence assumption, as compared to choices elicited with procedures that do not require the assumption. The upshot is that one cannot consistently estimate popular models that relax the IA using data from experiments that assume the validity of the RLIM.     

Non-linear mixed logit

We develop an extension of the familiar linear mixed logit model to allow for the direct estimation of parametric non-linear functions defined over structural parameters. Classic applications include the estimation of coefficients of utility functions to characterize risk attitudes and discounting functions to characterize impatience. There are several unexpected benefits of this extension, apart from the ability to directly estimate structural parameters of theoretical interest.     

Does funding for HIV and sexually transmitted disease prevention matter? Evidence from panel data

Since the onset of the AIDS epidemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has allocated several billion dollars for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the United States. Using state-level data from 1981 to 1998, the authors found that greater amounts of prevention funding in a given year are associated with reductions in reported gonorrhea incidence rates in subsequent years. The authors conclude that funding for STD and HIV prevention, on the whole, appears to have a discernable impact on the incidence of STDs.     

The development of analysis of variance for circular data

The new approach to the analysis of variance type technique for the angular data suggested by Harrison, Kanji & Gadsden (1986) has been extended for the analysis of larger designs. Examples are given to indicate the validity of the new approach.     

Lapsele Oma Kodu (bringing abandoned children home): a project from Tallinn, Estonia to reunite institutionalized children with families

In 1993 it was estimated that there were approximately 2000 children in 64 institutions in Estonia. Children in Estonia and in other central and eastern European countries are often removed from their homes and placed in institutions in order to ensure that their basic physical needs will be met. Lapsele Oma Kodu is a project that was initiated in Estonia in 1993 to (a) train social workers and homemakers to provide family services to reunite institutionalized children with families; (b) return home a minimum of 50 institutionalized children; (c) demonstrate a model family support program; and (d) influence public opinion and child welfare policy in Estonia. Between April 1993 and June 1994, services were provided to 150 families (including 187 children). A total of 101 children have been removed from institutions and placed with biological, foster or adoptive families. An additional 19 children have been able to remain with their families through preventive services. This article presents data from the first 15 months of project activities that can be useful to other countries in central and eastern Europe initiating similar family service programs in the post-Soviet era.     

Child Welfare Policy in the United States

Recent developments in child welfare in the United States can be seen as enactments of state paternalism toward families. New programs and procedures in the areas of foster care and “in-home” family services aim to reinforce parents' and childrens' rights, but these rights are typically framed as protections against bureaucratic abuse rather than as rights to basic material resources. The prevailing cultural assumption toward child welfare in the United States is that the government should not intervene in family life unless there is legal evidence of functional failure. Families are still seen as autonomous units that essentially determine their own fates. This ideology serves to limit the public and political perception of more preventive and developmental options.