Trend effects on perceived avalanche hazard

Hazard-level forecasts constitute an important risk mitigation tool to reduce loss of economic values and human life. Avalanche forecasts represent an example of this. As for many other domains, avalanche risk is communicated using a color-coded, categorical risk scale aimed at informing the public about past, current, and future risk. We report the results from three experiments in which we tested if an irrelevant past trend in forecasted avalanche danger affects perceptions of current and future avalanche risk. Our sample consisted of individuals from three different populations targeted by national avalanche warning services. All three experiments showed that the perception of avalanche risk is influenced by the trend, but that the effect is opposite for perceptions of current and expectations of future avalanche risk. While future avalanche risk is extrapolated in the same direction as the change from the previous day, we found that perceived current risk appears to be based on an average of past and current risk. These effects diminish when we provide participants with a scale indicating the exact level of avalanche danger. For most of our measurement instruments, however, the effects remain significant. These results imply that targeted populations may consider historic information more than was intended by the sender. As such, our results have implications for both avalanche warning services and risk communication in general.     

Dyadic regression in the presence of heteroscedasticity—An assessment of alternative approaches

Although the problem of heteroscedasticity has been the subject of much discussion in other areas of applied statistics the problem has received scant attention in the social network literature. This study attempts to remedy this situation by considering how traditional methods for significance testing in dyadic regression models, such as standard QAP tests, perform under conditions of heteroscedasticity. Moreover, the article presents two alternative methods to deal with heteroscedasticity that are both shown to perform rather well with typical social network data under conditions of both heteroscedasticity and homoscedasticity. Overall, the results of the study suggest that applied researchers using regression techniques to study dyadic data are well advised to correct for heteroscedasticity, by either of the two methods discussed here, whenever there is a reason to suspect heteroscedasticity.     

Elder Abuse and Neglect in South Africa: A Case of Marginalization,Disrespect, Exploitation and Violence

ABSTRACT

The problem of elder abuse and neglect in South Africa is widespread, but the definition of abuse remains problematic. An expanded typology is needed to classify certain types of abuse reported commonly, such as marginalization, disrespect, exploitation and violence. The history of elder abuse and responses is traced, relevant legislation and selected intervention programs are reviewed, and research and the status of elder abuse are evaluated. Interventions to address sociostructural factors that impact elders' settings, increase their vulnerability, and diminish their ability to realize human rights can contribute to an improvement in their condition and a reduction in abuse and rights violations in the long-term.     

Entry into Consensual Unions and Marriages Among Finnish Women Born Between 1938 and 1967

This study, based on a survey undertaken in 1989, clearly illustrates the dramatic changes in family formation behaviour that have occurred in Finland. Whereas only about one-tenth of the first unions of women born between 1938 and 1942 began as consensual unions, after the cohort of 1962 only one-tenth were formal marriages. These changes lagged some ten years behind the corresponding ones in Sweden, but were about five years ahead of Norway. In Finland, up to the present, most consensual unions have constituted a temporary state which precedes proper family life. Most couples married in connection with the birth of the first child. Consensual union as a permanent lifestyle is generally connected with a low level of education of women.     

Elder abuse and neglect in South Africa: a case of marginalization, disrespect, exploitation and violence

The problem of elder abuse and neglect in South Africa is widespread, but the definition of abuse remains problematic. An expanded typology is needed to classify certain types of abuse reported commonly, such as marginalization, disrespect, exploitation and violence. The history of elder abuse and responses is traced, relevant legislation and selected intervention programs are reviewed, and research and the status of elder abuse are evaluated. Interventions to address sociostructural factors that impact elders' settings, increase their vulnerability, and diminish their ability to realize human rights can contribute to an improvement in their condition and a reduction in abuse and rights violations in the long-term.     

Adjustment failures in an immigrant population: Finns in Sweden

Using data sets from both Sweden and Finland, which have been linked at the individual level, we analyse whether Finnish immigrants who lived in Sweden in 1990 were employed, non-employed, return-migrated, or dead by 2001. The aim is to see how they interrelate with socio-demographic characteristics, and to compare Finnish-speaking and Swedish-speaking immigrants in this respect. Multinomial logistic regression models reveal that there is great variation in the level of outcomes between the two language groups, but that the interrelation between socio-demographic factors and each outcome is fairly similar across outcomes and across language groups. It is foremost the Finnish-speaking male immigrants who experience problems, having on average two times higher odds of being either non-employed, return-migrated, or death, as compared with Swedish-speaking male immigrants. Social disadvantage may consequently not only take the form of poor labour market position, but also return-migration and death. The paper illustrates the need for separating subgroups of immigrants when one is interested in integrational success. Comments from seminar participants at the Turku Centre for Welfare Research and anonymous persons are gratefully acknowledged.     

Community development in a Mexican squatter settlement: A program evaluation

This paper critically examines various approaches to community development in Mexican squatter settlements. Using a quasi-experimental design, the authors show systematic differences between government-sponsored and spontaneous squatter communities. Results suggest that residents in the non-government squatter settlement are not disadvantaged in their ability to construct adequate housing or to obtain resources similar to those living in government-sponsored communities. Government-sponsored settlements, however, showed significantly higher levels of collective action and community building than those that were spontaneously formed. The authors conclude with suggestions for improving the social and physical conditions of squatters.     

The demographic effect of mixed marriages

This paper gives a formal expression for the demographic effect of mixed marriages; i.e., the effect on the number of children, and thereafter illustrates the long-term effects of these marriages with a simple simulation model     

Mortality inequality in two native population groups

A sample of people aged 40–67 years, taken from a longitudinal register compiled by Statistics Finland, is used to analyse mortality differences between Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers in Finland. Finnish speakers are known to have higher death rates than Swedish speakers. The purpose is to explore whether labour-market experience and partnership status, treated as proxies for measures of variation in health-related characteristics, are related to the mortality differential. Persons who are single, disability pensioners, and those having experienced unemployment are found to have substantially higher death rates than those with a partner and employed persons. Swedish speakers have a more favourable distribution on both variables, which thus notably helps to reduce the Finnish–Swedish mortality gradient. A conclusion from this study is that future analyses on the topic should focus on mechanisms that bring a greater proportion of Finnish speakers into the groups with poor health or supposed unhealthy behaviour.