Estimation of Acute Toxicity by Fitting a Dose-Time-Response Surface

In acute toxicity testing, organisms are continuously exposed to progressively increasing concentrations of a chemical and deaths of test organisms are recorded at several selected times. The results of the test are traditionally summarized by a dose-response curve, and the time course of effect is usually ignored for lack of a suitable model. A model which integrates the combined effects of dose and exposure duration on response is derived from the biological mechanisms of aquatic toxicity, and a statistically efficient approach for estimating acute toxicity by fitting the proposed model is developed in this paper. The proposed procedure has been computerized as software and a typical data set is used to illustrate the theory and procedure. The new statistical technique is also tested by a data base of a variety of chemical and fish species.     

Are Cohort Mortality Rates Autocorrelated?

In this paper the author examines the proposition that heterogeneity in individual frailty leads to autocorrelation in cohort mortality rates. A simple model is used to construct analytic expressions for the covariance of cohort mortality rates at different ages under a number of alternative assumptions about the stochastic process generating shocks in mortality. The model then is used to construct a procedure that uses correlations in cohort mortality rates to estimate the extent of heterogeneity in a population without relying on strong assumptions about the distribution of frailty or the shape of the underlying hazard. The procedure then is used to show that cohort mortality data from France are consistent with a generalized random-effects model in which frailty is gamma-distributed.     

Density based exploration of bivariate data

The difficulties of assessing details of the shape of a bivariate distribution, and of contrasting subgroups, from a raw scatterplot are discussed. The use of contours of a density estimate in highlighting features of distributional shape is illustrated on data on the development of aircraft technology. The estimated density height at each observation imposes an ordering on the data which can be used to select contours which contain specified proportions of the sample. This leads to a display which is reminiscent of a boxplot and which allows simple but effective comparison of different groups. Some simple properties of this technique are explored.Interesting features of a distribution such as arms and multimodality are found along the directions where the largest probability mass is located. These directions can be quantified through the modes of a density estimate based on the direction of each observation.     

Conflict at work

P. K. Edwards, Conflict at Work: A Materialist Analysis of Workplace Relations (1986), ix + 357 (Basil Blackwell, Oxford, £29.50).