Hierarchical clustering and matrix completion for the reconstruction of world input–output tables

Multi-regional input–output (I/O) matrices provide the networks of within- and cross-country economic relations. In the context of I/O analysis, the methodology adopted by national statistical offices in data collection raises the issue of obtaining reliable data in a timely fashion and it makes the reconstruction of (parts of) the I/O matrices of particular interest. In this work, we propose a method combining hierarchical clustering and matrix completion with a LASSO-like nuclear norm penalty, to predict missing entries of a partially unknown I/O matrix. Through analyses based on both real-world and synthetic I/O matrices, we study the effectiveness of the proposed method to predict missing values from both previous years data and current data related to countries similar to the one for which current data are obscured. To show the usefulness of our method, an application based on World Input–Output Database (WIOD) tables—which are an example of industry-by-industry I/O tables—is provided. Strong similarities in structure between WIOD and other I/O tables are also found, which make the proposed approach easily generalizable to them.

     

Hybrid social and news media protest events: from #MarchinMarch to #BusttheBudget in Australia

Public protest events are now both social media and news media events. They are deeply entangled, with news media actors – such as journalists or news organisations – directly participating in the protest by tweeting about the event using the protest hashtag; and social media actors sharing news items published online by professional news agencies. Protesters have always deployed tactics to engage the media and use news media agencies’ resources to amplify their reach, with the dual aim of mobilising new supporters and adding their voice to public, mediatised debate. When protest moves between a physical space and a virtual space, the interactions between protesters and media stop being asynchronous or post hoc and turn instantaneous. In this new media-protest ecosystem, traditional media are still relevant sources of information and legitimacy, yet this dynamic is increasingly underpinned by a hybrid interdependency between traditional news and social media sources. In this paper we focus on an anti-austerity government movement that arose in Australia in early 2014 and was mobilised as a series of social media driven, connective action protest events. We show that there is a complex symbiotic interdependency between the movement and the traditional media for recognition and amplification of initial protest events, but that over time as media interest wanes, the movements’ network becomes disconnected and momentum is lost. This suggests that the active role traditional media play in protest events is being underestimated in the current research agenda on connective action.     

Public education provision,private schooling and income redistribution

Availability of free public education induces a transfer in kind among households with school age children. We provide evidence of the redistributive character of public education provision. We estimate structural quantile treatment effects of household income on the distribution of expected educational transfers in kind. Under the assumption that education quality is a normal good, better services (ancillary to the core education mission) supplied by private schools increase quality therein and reduce the incentives for wealthy households to enroll in public education. Because of these incentives, rich families benefit less from educational transfers in kind and the public education system is redistributive. Using household survey data from Italy, we find that an increase in net income reduces the value of the expected educational in kind transfers for compulsory education.     

Mobile Money and School Participation: Evidence from Africa

This paper shows that mobile money technology—an electronic wallet service that allows users to deposit, transfer, and receive money using their mobile phones—is positively correlated with increased school participation of children in school age. By using data from 4 African countries, we argue that, by reducing transaction costs, and by making it easier and less expensive to receive remittances, mobile money reduces the need for coping strategies that are detrimental to child development, such as withdrawing children from school and sending them to work. We find that mobile money increases the chances of children attending school. This finding is robust to different empirical models. In a nutshell, our results show that 1 million children could start attending school in low-income countries if mobile money was available to all.

     

Physical activity is inversely related to drug consumption in elderly patients with cardiovascular events

Elderly patients with cardiovascular events are characterized by high drug consumptions. Whether high drug consumptions are related to physical activity is not known. In order to examine whether physical activity is related to drug consumption in the elderly, patients older than 65 years (n?=?250) with a recent cardiovascular event were studied. Physical activity was analyzed according to the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) score and related to drug consumption. PASE score was 72.4?±?45.0 and drug consumption was 8.3?±?2.2. Elderly patients with greater comorbidity took more drugs (8.7?±?2.1) and are less active (PASE?=?64.4?±?50.6) than patients with Cumulative Illness Rating Scale severity score higher than 1.8 than those with a score lower than 1.8 (76.3?±?41.4, p?<?0.05, and 8.0?±?2.0, p?=?0.006, respectively). Multivariate analysis correlation confirmed that PASE score is negatively associated with drug consumption (β?=??0.149, p?=?0.031), independently of several variables including comorbidity. Thus, physical activity is inversely related to drug consumption in elderly patients with cardiovascular events. This inverse relationship may be attributable to the high degree of comorbidity observed in elderly patients in whom poor level of physical activity and high drug consumption are predominant.     

Practical implications of higher moments in risk management

In this paper the out-of-sample prediction of Value-at-Risk by means of models accounting for higher moments is studied. We consider models differing in terms of skewness and kurtosis and, in particular, the GARCHDSK model, which allows for constant and dynamic skewness and kurtosis. The issue of VaR prediction performance is approached first from a purely statistical viewpoint, studying the properties concerning correct coverage rates and independence of VaR violations. Then, financial implications of different VaR models, in terms of market risk capital requirements, as defined by the Basel Accord, are considered. Our results, based on the analysis of eight international stock indexes, highlight the presence of conditional skewness and kurtosis, in some case time-varying, and point out that asymmetry plays a significant role in risk management.     

The demand for job protection: Some clues from behavioural economics

Radical differences in labour market regulations among countries that in other institutional respects are quite similar are still surprisingly frequent. Nonetheless, traditional theoretical analysis meets enormous difficulties in explaining these differences. The scope of our paper is to show that some clues from behavioural economics could be used to better theoretically treat this problem. Our argument is that workers are different, due to the effects of both culture and education. In particular, building on empirical evidence, we argue that loss aversion and hedonic adaptation are culturally-determined and country-specific aptitudes and that they may help explaining why workers, either employed or unemployed, ask for job protection and are willing to pay the cost of it. The main conclusion of our analysis is that, for poorly educated workers sharing a fatalist view of life, job protection can be more effective than public social expenditure. As a consequence, we suggest that countries with a poorly educated and fatalist workforce will be more prone to offer protection through job protection rather than public social expenditure, which is exactly what the empirical evidence shows.     

Deliberative democracy in the real world,the contribution of the capability approach

ABSTRACT

Drawing on Amartya Sen’s writings, this article presents the capability approach to democracy and shows its relevance for the sociological reflection and research on democratic processes conceived as ways to convert individual preferences into collective norms or decisions. Two moments are key in this respect: the formation of individual preferences and their translation into collective norms in the course of public debates. The initial sections present Sen’s conception of democracy, particularly emphasizing its articulation with the notions of ‘positional objectivity’ and ‘conversion’. Then, this conception is compared with two other mechanisms that may be used to coordinate individual decisions or preferences, namely the market and idealistic views on deliberative democracy. The article emphasizes how the capability approach departs from these two conceptions with regard to the two key concepts of capacity to aspire and capability for voice. The final section shows how Sen’s notion of democracy may open up a new field for research, namely the sociological investigation of the informational (or knowledge) basis of democracy.     

Suspect community or suspect category? The impact of counter-terrorism as ‘policed multiculturalism’

How to think about the impact of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation on ethnic and religious accommodation? Much of the literature draws on the concept of ‘suspect community’, suggesting it has primarily alienated the Muslim community, favouring an assimilationist model of ‘muscular liberalism’. In this article, while I consider the merits of the ‘suspect community’ hypothesis, I argue that it only partially accounts for the effects of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation on multicultural societies. I contend that much of the literature has focused too narrowly on the discriminatory effects of counter-terrorist policies and has been unable to grasp the more insidious political effects of counter-terrorism policies based on the active participation and involvement of Muslims in their own policing. The main hypothesis of this paper is that rather than promoting ‘assimilation’, as the government would expect, or alienation, as the advocates of the ‘suspect community’ hypothesis would contend, counter-terrorist policies produce and reinforce a government of society in discrete and divided ethno-religious groups. Such ‘policed multiculturalism’—understood as the recognition and the management of diversity through a security perspective—has an important consequence in that it removes fundamental questions about pluralism from political debate, casting them instead in a depoliticised language of security.