Asymptotic bootstrap validity for finite markov chains

Two methods of bootstrap, viz., standard, and conditional, are presented for estimating the transition probabilities of a finite state Markov chain. Asymptotic validity of the bootstrap estimates are established for both methods. An applica- tion to a bootstrapped statistic for testing independence is briefly discussed together with some simulation results.     

Development and Application of a Stochastic Epidemic Model for the Transmission of Salmonella Typhimurium at the Farm Level of the Pork Production Chain

In previous work a deterministic model for the compartment level was built, taking into account the two different syndromes with which  Salmonella  Typhimurium appears at pig farms. Based on this model, a stochastic one was built in this work that simulated different compartmental sizes, taking into account compartments of 200 to 400 pigs. Multiple scenarios of starting conditions of infection (SCI) ranging from 0.25 to 100% were tested for each population size. The effect of each of these two factors on the probability of disease extinctions and the prevalence of each of the classes of the model and the risk groups of pigs were estimated. The results showed that the compartment population had an inverse effect on the probability of disease extinction. On the other hand, low SCI resulted in high levels of early extinctions reaching 45%, while higher SCI led to high levels of late extinctions. Early extinctions resulted in the absence of the pathogen from the compartment, while late extinctions did not assure it. This effect shows that reducing the population of the compartment combined with appropriate cleaning and good farming practices could have a positive effect in the reduction of the risk of introducing  S.  Typhimurium into the slaughtering procedure. On the other hand, the profile of seroprevalence at slaughter age allows for risk characterization of the farm, given the relative stability and the small variation for higher SCI.     

A Time‐Dependent Risk Assessment for Broken Compact Fluorescent Lamps

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ambient air quality guidelines are meant to limit long‐term exposures of toxins to safe levels. Unfortunately, there is little guidance for what constitutes a safe level from a one‐time (or very infrequent) short exposure(s). In the case of mercury, a review of the derivation of the EPA ambient air quality standard shows that it implicitly assumes a tissue burden model. The time dependence of the tissue burden is commonly described in terms of a half‐life, a modeling assumption that presumes that the decline in the tissue burden after a single exposure can be approximately described as an exponential decay. In this article, we use a simple exponential tissue burden model to derive a time‐dependent no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) for mercury concentrations in air. The model predicts that tissue body burden will asymptotically approach the EPA air quality level for long exposure times, and reach workplace standard levels for exposures of a few hours. The model was used along with data on mercury levels from experimental work done by the Maine Department of Environmental Protection to evaluate the risks from a broken compact fluorescent lamp in a residential setting. Mercury levels approached the NOAEL only when the debris was left in an almost sealed room. Normal common‐sense cleaning measures: removal of debris to an outside area, and ventilation of the room for several minutes, reduced exposures to less than 1% of the NOAEL.     

Online bin packing of fragile objects with application in cellular networks

We study a specific bin packing problem which arises from the channel assignment problems in cellular networks. In cellular communications, frequency channels are some limited resource which may need to share by various users. However, in order to avoid signal interference among users, a user needs to specify to share the channel with at most how many other users, depending on the user’s application. Under this setting, the problem of minimizing the total channels used to support all users can be modeled as a specific bin packing problem as follows: Given a set of items, each with two attributes, weight and fragility. We need to pack the items into bins such that, for each bin, the sum of weight in the bin must be at most the smallest fragility of all the items packed into the bin. The goal is to minimize the total number of bins (i.e., the channels in the cellular network) used. We consider the on-line version of this problem, where items arrive one by one. The next item arrives only after the current item has been packed, and the decision cannot be changed. We show that the asymptotic competitive ratio is at least 2. We also consider the case where the ratio of maximum fragility and minimum fragility is bounded by a constant. In this case, we present a class of online algorithms with asymptotic competitive ratio at most of 1/4+3r/2, for any r>1. A preliminary version of this paper appeared in Proc. of Workshop on Internet and Network Economics (WINE’05, pp. 564–573). The research of W.-T.C. was supported in part by Hong Kong RGC grant HKU5172/03E. The research of F.Y.-L.C. was supported in part by Hong Kong RGC Grant HKU7142/03E. The research of D.Y. was supported by NSFC (10601048). The research of G.Z. was supported in part by NSFC (60573020).     

‘But I can do the job’: examining disability employment practice through human rights complaint cases

Natural data on the Australian Human Rights Commission’s website outlining the complaint cases generated from Disability Discrimination Act, 1992 (DDA) were used to examine the social construction of disability employment discrimination. Using a social model and human rights citizenship lens, some 987 complaint cases were analysed to assess the prevalence of disability discrimination in employment, and its relationship to the types of disability, gender, entity undertaking the actions and organisational context. Of all complaint cases across the Australian Human Rights Commission’s operations, by far the largest proportion involves disability discrimination. Within the disability discrimination complaint cases, employment makes up the greatest proportion of these cases. In examining the patterns of discrimination seven major themes emerged involving: distinctive patterns across disability type; access to premises; human resource mismanagement; selection of new employees; integration of assistive technology; perception of cost of disability inclusions; and inflexible organisational workplace practices. The discussion examines the underlying reasons for the emergent themes where employers misunderstood key legal concepts that underpin the DDA including: unjustifiable hardship; inherent requirements; reasonable adjustment; direct; and indirect discrimination. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings as a way of understanding the social construction of disability discrimination in employment to signal ways to better develop inclusive organisational practice.     

The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?

Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide‐ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer‐reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit “power‐law” behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end‐users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.     

Exact Sampling from a Continuous State Space

Propp & Wilson (1996) described a protocol, called coupling from the past, for exact sampling from a target distribution using a coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. In this paper we extend coupling from the past to various MCMC samplers on a continuous state space; rather than following the monotone sampling device of Propp & Wilson, our approach uses methods related to gamma-coupling and rejection sampling to simulate the chain, and direct accounting of sample paths.