Analysis of Variance by Randomization when Variances are Unequal

If there are significant factor and interaction effects with analysis of variance using ran-domization inference, they can be detected by tests that compare the F -statistics for the real data with the distributions of these statistics obtained by randomly allocating either the original observations or the residuals to the various factor combinations. Such tests involve the assumption that the effect of factors or interactions is to shift the observations for a factor combination by a fixed amount, without changing the amount of variation at that combination. In reality the expected amount of variation at each factor combination, as measured by the variance, may not be constant, which may upset the properties of the tests for the effects of factors and interactions. This paper discusses several possible methods for adjusting the randomization procedure to allow for this type of problem, including generalizations of methods that have been proposed for comparing the means of several samples when there is unequal variance but no factor structure. A simulation study shows that the best of the methods examined is one for which the randomized sets of data are designed to approximate the distributions of F -statistics when unequal variance is present.     

Civil Society,Economic Distress,and Social Tolerance

The idea that civil society is declining has been much discussed recently, for example, by Fukuyama (Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity. New York: Free Press, 1995) and Putnam (The American Prospect 13 (Spring):35–42, 19937semi; Nobel Symposium, Uppsala, Sweden, August 27–30, 1994; PS: Political Science and Politics, December: 664–683:. At the same time, another stream of research suggests that racial tolerance is increasing through time (Quillian, American Journal of Sociology 101 (3):816–860, 1996; Firebaugh and Davis, American Journal of Sociology 94 (2):251–272. This paper combines ideas from several intellectual traditions to suggest that economic conditions may affect civil society, which in turn may influence social tolerance. These ideas are explored, using multivariate analysis of pooled General Social Survey data from 1972 to 1994. The results suggest that the fabric of civil society and economic conditions may contribute somewhat to espoused tolerance. Greater economic security, together with the attitudes fostered by a vibrant civil society including greater trust and less anomia, appear to increase espoused social tolerance. Period effects and the effects of other demographic factors remain strongly related to expressions of tolerance. While alternative interpretations may be offered depending on whether the interaction terms, Year × Education or Cohort × Education, are included in the analysis, the high correlation between the two suggests that these interpretations cannot be seen as oppositional. Finally and most important, the analysis reveals many parallels between espoused racial and homosexual tolerance, suggesting a more generalizable model of social tolerance.     

Coping with Time‐Varying Demand When Setting Staffing Requirements for a Service System

We review queueing‐theory methods for setting staffing requirements in service systems where customer demand varies in a predictable pattern over the day. Analyzing these systems is not straightforward, because standard queueing theory focuses on the long‐run steady‐state behavior of stationary models. We show how to adapt stationary queueing models for use in nonstationary environments so that time‐dependent performance is captured and staffing requirements can be set. Relatively little modification of straightforward stationary analysis applies in systems where service times are short and the targeted quality of service is high. When service times are moderate and the targeted quality of service is still high, time‐lag refinements can improve traditional stationary independent period‐by‐period and peak‐hour approximations. Time‐varying infinite‐server models help develop refinements, because closed‐form expressions exist for their time‐dependent behavior. More difficult cases with very long service times and other complicated features, such as end‐of‐day effects, can often be treated by a modified‐offered‐load approximation, which is based on an associated infinite‐server model. Numerical algorithms and deterministic fluid models are useful when the system is overloaded for an extensive period of time. Our discussion focuses on telephone call centers, but applications to police patrol, banking, and hospital emergency rooms are also mentioned.     

ADVERTISING AND VALUE MAXIMIZATION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH *

The model developed in this paper is interdisciplinary in that we incorporate the advertising decision into the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for valuation of risky income streams. The advertising decision involves the purchase of media services whose effects on sales (profit) are hypothesized to vary with general economic activity. As in any asset expansion, the firm purchases an income distribution with a given expected value and covariance with the economy. By consulting the CAPM, we are able to obtain a value for the income distribution associated with the advertising expenditure. By failing to account for both risk and return, those previous studies which have examined the effect of advertising on profit or valuation are, at best, incomplete. We are able to demonstrate the inappropriateness of ranking alternative advertising strategies solely on the basis of expected income.     

Raising the Quality of Home Care: A Study of Service Users' Views

Raising standards is one of the key objectives of the British government's Modernizing Agenda. The quality of life of vulnerable older people who are being maintained at home is fundamentally dependent on the quality of the home‐care services they receive, so raising standards of home care is clearly central to this agenda. This paper draws on a small‐scale study of service users and providers to examine the aspects of quality of home care of importance to older people, their experiences and barriers to improvement. Six key aspects of quality were investigated: reliability, continuity, flexibility, communication, staff attitudes and skills and knowledge. If performance indicators are to have the desired effect, more work needs to be done to ensure they reflect key aspects of quality from the user perspective. We identify potential areas for improvement in commissioning and organization but these all have resource implications that will need to be met if home care is to realize its full potential in maintaining and improving quality of life for older people.     

The Balangingi Samal: The Global Economy,Maritime Raiding and Diasporic Identities in the Nineteenth-Century Philippines

In the early nineteenth century, an entire ethnic group, the Samal Balangingi of the Sulu-Mindanao region, specialised in state-sanctioned maritime raiding, attacking Southeast Asian coastal settlements and trading vessels. This paper traces the process of the formation of the Samal Balangingi as an ethnic group comprised of 'pirates' and their captives, and their continued sense of belonging to the island stronghold of Balangingi, even after its inhabitants were forcefully resettled between 1848 and 1858. The paper also stresses just how critical the Spanish resettlement policy directed against the deported Samal Balangingi was for their future cultural and social life. It highlights the inextricable relationship between maritime raiding, slavery, forced migration, 'homeland' and cultural identity as being critical factors that led to the emergence of new ethnicities and diasporas. By highlighting the problems of self-definition and the reconstruction of identities and the meaning of homeland and lost places, as a revealing social and psychological process in its own right, the case of the Samal Balangingi challenges lineal notions of history and bounded static conceptions of 'culture' and ethnic groups that were imposed, imagined and maintained by Europeans both prior to and after colonisation.     

全球修辞学史研究

今天,我演讲的是关于共性和个性的问题.我想讨论当下全球修辞学史研究的多样性,学术研究为何因国家不同而变化,思考该研究多样化的原因.我今天的论点是,我们的研究方法不止一种,在一个国家行得通的方法,在另一个国家未必行得通.     

Studying Hate Crime with the Internet: What Makes Racists Advocate Racial Violence?

We conducted semistructured interviews with 38 participants in White racist Internet chat rooms, examining the extent to which people would, in this unique environment, advocate interracial violence in response to purported economic and cultural threats. Capitalizing on the anonymity and candor of chat room interactions, this study provides an unusual perspective on extremist attitudes. We experimentally manipulated the nature and proximity of the threats. Qualitative and quantitative analyses indicate that the respondents were most threatened by interracial marriage and, to a lesser extent, Blacks moving into White neighborhoods. In contrast, job competition posed by Blacks evoked very little advocacy of violence. The study affords an assessment of the advantages and limitations of Internet-based research with clandestine populations.     

Impact of Adult Sons’ Incarceration on African American Mothers’ Psychological Distress

This longitudinal study examines the effect of sons’ incarceration on their mothers’ psychological distress. Interviews were conducted over the life course with a community cohort of African American mothers who had children in first grade in 1966 – 1967 when the study began (N =615). Thirty years later, their sons had significant rates of incarceration (22.4%). Structural equation modeling showed that the more recent the incarceration, the greater the mothers’ psychological distress, even controlling for earlier socioeconomic status and psychological well‐being. Financial difficulties and greater burden of grandparenting are associated with having a son incarcerated and they mediate the relationship between the incarceration and a mother’s psychological distress. Results suggest that incarceration has important effects on family members’ well‐being.     

IMPASSE AND CHANGE: A SYSTEMIC/STRATEGIC VIEW OF THE THERAPEUTIC SYSTEM*

This paper examines how clients and therapists, together, create impasses or change. First, the general concept of a “therapeutic system” (therapist-plus-client) is briefly reviewed. Second, a model is described that synthesizes systemic and strategic ideas about therapeutic systems. Third, a series of questions based on this model is proposed for analyzing and resolving impasses. Finally, application of this framework is illustrated with a case.