Assessing Cross-Media Impacts: A Comparative Risk Approach

The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has developed a Cross-Media Comparative Risk Assessment model to address certain regulatory concerns. The model generates a Human and Ecological Risk Index for a facility releasing toxins into the environment. The risk indices are based on chemical fate and transport predictions, toxicity, population density, and ecological sensitive areas. The model can be used to rank facilities for inspection or as a tool to assess the progress of pollution prevention programs. Regulatory permitting departments can use the model to address the cross-media transfer of pollutants from one environmental compartment to another. The versatility of the model allows adaptation to each specific users needs.     

How useful are recoveries of North American passerines for survival analyses?

Of 17 000 000 passerines ringed in North America from 1955 to 1984, only 0.4% were ever recovered. Only 62 species had more than 100 recoveries, of which only 26 had more than 500 recoveries. Preliminary analyses using stochastic recovery models for four of the species with more than 500 recoveries suggest estimates of mean annual adult survival can be fairly precise (CV < 4%), but estimates of immature survival are much less precise (CV > 8%). Comparable estimates may be possible for other species with more than 100 recoveries, depending on the temporal and geographic distribution of ringings and recoveries. Further analyses are required to determine whether these estimates may be biased by heterogeneity in survival or recovery rates.     

A Bayesian growth and yield model for slash pine plantations

We formulate a traditional growth and yield model as a Bayes model. We attempt to introduce as few new assumptions as possible. Zellner's Bayesian method of moments procedure is used, because the published model did not include any distributional assumptions. We generate predictive posterior samples for a number of stand variables using the Gibbs sampler. The means of the samples compare favorably with the predictions from the published model. In addition, our model delivers distributions of outcomes, from which it is easy to establish measures of uncertainty, such as highest posterior density regions.     

Management Information Systems and Corporate Planning

If we accept the correlation between MIS and computer based systems then the corporate planner has to consider the impact on his own company of a major new function. In so far as computers and the associated highly paid staff are concerned, the planner is certainly threatened with a major cost growth area that develops a momentum of its own. He may need all his energy to contain this growth in highly expensive resources to a scale that matches the company's overall operations. On the other hand an emphasis on management information and redesigned systems may lead to radical redesign and improvement in profitability of a company's operations. These two aspects are different sides of the same coin and in the future the corporate planner will play a dominant part in determining whether a company enjoys the benefits as well as incurs the costs of a sophisticated MIS.     

Remembering the lizard: reconstructing sexuality in the rooms of narcotics anonymous

The crack epidemic was devastating to poor American communities in part because of the destruction wrought by the system of exchanging sex for drugs, which was a key feature of the crack-use culture. Sex-for-drugs exchanges were often conducted under unsafe circumstances and were linked to the spread of AIDS and other STDs, as well as unplanned pregnancies. The existence of this alternative system of sexual relationships threatened the economic viability of established commercial sex work and undermined the status and power of women. Narcotics Anonymous (NA) meetings helped men and women recover from crack addiction through a well-described 12-step process. Described as the rooms, these time- and space-specific encounters helped people become sober in the context of neighborhoods that were centers of the drug trade. Because of the key role of sex in the crack culture, transformation of sexual relationships was essential to establishing and maintaining sobriety. The manner in which the rooms of NA influence the sexuality and lifeworld of addicted people is explored using Barker's theory of ecological psychology.     

Major factors influencing HIV/AIDS project evaluation

This article aimed at finding out if participatory processes (group discussions, enactments, and others) do make a valuable contribution in communication-based project implementation/evaluation and the fight against HIV/AIDS. A case study backed by documentary analysis of evaluation reports and occasional insights from interviews stood as the main methods. To identify values, the state of beneficiaries prior to and after project implementation/evaluation was compared. Participatory processes were noted to have created an enabling environment for project beneficiaries to become activists for social change, leading to the limiting of the spread of HIV/AIDS through sexual behavior and a change of attitude--the essence required for successful intervention. Group participatory processes were also noted to have contributed in overriding, to a great extent, limitations arising from sociodemographic differences in the attainment of project objectives and limitations arising from differences in forms of evaluation (internal versus external evaluators).     

Leverage and evaluation effectiveness

Weaknesses in evaluations often can be traced to structural limitations in the positions of evaluation researchers. Conventional human relations techniques often are an insufficient basis for securing strong support for evaluation research. Strategies for increasing evaluation research leverage are reviewed. Alignment of evaluation research with regulatory bodies with authority to suspend public program expenditures is advocated. Several likely obstacles in the development of the regulatory evaluation model are anticipated and addressed.     

Developing a research agenda in biogerontology: physiological systems

The Biology of Aging Program (BAP) at the National Institute on Aging supports research in many areas, including processes of cell senescence and apoptosis, genetic influences on aging, and how aging leads to tissue dysfunction. Several approaches to research on aging physiological systems are described, along with BAP programmatic efforts to enhance and support that research. Understanding the relation between aging and tissue dysfunction has led to new insights into how health can be improved for aged individuals.