Analysis of the non-native flora of Ensenada, a fast growing city in northwestern Baja California

Urbanized areas show a high proportion of non-native plants and can work as dispersal points to the surrounding areas. Ensenada is a fast growing city located in the northwestern peninsula of Baja California (Mexico). It is the southern extreme of a bi-national, coastal urban corridor that extends from Los Angeles, California south to Ensenada. This corridor is part of the biodiversity hotspot of the California Floristic Province. The aim of this study was to analyze the composition and distribution of the spontaneous flora in the city of Ensenada. We systematically sampled two differentiated urban environments, vacant lots and arroyos, in 2006 and 2007. We found a total of 158 plant species, 61% of them were non-native species. Arroyo areas showed higher non-native species richness than vacant lots (21.9 vs. 13.6 species/transect) and could be potential dispersal vectors for non-native species to natural areas outside of the city, or in the reverse direction also.     

The price of risk with incomplete knowledge on the utility function*

When a risk is exchanged, the exact value for the minimum price (positive or negative) that the purchaser (investor, or insurer) is willing to pay is given by the certainty equivalent wealth level, which in turn depends on his specific utility function. When this utility function is unknown, then only a sufficient condition on the price can ever be found. This paper provides methods for calculating such a sufficient condition, when only limited information on the utility function is known.     

Exposure to Traffic and Risk of Hospitalization Due to Injuries

Research on the risk of motor vehicle injuries and their relationship with the amount of travel has been only partially analyzed. The few individual exposure assessments are related to very specific subsets of the driving and traveling populations. This study analyzes the relationship between kilometers traveled and hospitalization due to motor vehicle injuries. Twelve thousand three hundred and sixty nine Spanish university graduates from the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra multipurpose cohort study were evaluated. They had not been hospitalized due to motor vehicle injuries at baseline and were followed up to eight years. Biannual questionnaires allowed for self‐reporting of kilometers traveled in motor vehicles, together with incidence of hospitalization. Covariates in the Cox regression models included age and gender and baseline use of safety belt while driving, driving a vehicle with driver‐side airbag, driving a motorcycle, and drinking and driving. There were 49,766 participant‐years with an average yearly travel of 7,828 km per person‐year. Thirty‐six subjects reported a first hospitalization event during this time. The adjusted hazard ratio per additional kilometer traveled was 1.00005 (95% confidence interval 1.000013 to 1.000086). Even the smallest of reductions in the amount of kilometers traveled (from an average of 3,250 km per year to 1,000) has a statistically significant protective effect on the likelihood of sustaining hospitalization due to motor vehicle injury (aHR 0.9, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.98). In light of current policies aimed to reduce motorized traffic due to environmental concerns, it may be appropriate to consider the additional health benefit related to reductions in injuries.     

Political election on legal retirement age

In the context of the current debate surrounding the reform of pension systems, this paper analyzes the political economy of the legal retirement age. Using a life-cycle model in which individuals differ by age and by wage, we analyze the outcome of a majority voting process on the legal retirement age in a Pay-As-You-Go pension system. The results show that the older an individual is, the closer her optimal retirement age is to the status quo age. That is, the status quo retirement age acts as a magnet. Additionally, we find that the preferred legal retirement age of most of the working population increases when the pension system is more redistributive. We also observe a positive relationship between the preferred legal retirement age and the status quo age.     

To participate or not to participate: that is the question

Do I wish to participate or not to participate in this program? That is the question that young people ask themselves when considering a new opportunity. What can be done to increase the likelihood that they will choose to participate in out-of-school-time (OST) programs? This chapter describes a qualitative study that examined reasons for participating or not participating in OST programs. Some common reasons emerged, but the study also revealed differences among youth from different ethnic groups. It is clear that those who design and conduct programs must understand the processes through which diverse adolescents initiate their participation in programs and either persist or drop out. Given the apparent benefits of active participation in youth programs, it is important to remove barriers and increase access and, equally important, design programs that are of interest to youth in the contexts in which they live.     

A generalization of Jeffreys' rule for non regular models

ABSTRACT

We propose a generalization of the one-dimensional Jeffreys' rule in order to obtain non informative prior distributions for non regular models, taking into account the comments made by Jeffreys in his article of 1946. These non informatives are parameterization invariant and the Bayesian intervals have good behavior in frequentist inference. In some important cases, we can generate non informative distributions for multi-parameter models with non regular parameters. In non regular models, the Bayesian method offers a satisfactory solution to the inference problem and also avoids the problem that the maximum likelihood estimator has with these models. Finally, we obtain non informative distributions in job-search and deterministic frontier production homogenous models.     

The exponential Poisson logarithmic distribution

Abstract

In this article, we proposed a new three parameter lifetime distribution motivated mainly by lifetime issues, which generalizes the Exponential Poisson distribution proposed by Cancho et al. (2011) Cancho, V.G., Louzada-Neto, F., Barriga, G.D. (2011). The poisson-exponential lifetime distribution. Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 55:677–686.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. We derive various standard mathematical properties of the proposed model including a formal proof of its probability density function and hazard rate function. The inference via the maximum likelihood approach is discussed. The performance of the maximum likelihood estimators, the likelihood ratio test and its power are studied by simulation. Finally, the proposed model is fitted to two real data sets and it is compared with several models.     

On the existence of a normal approximation to the distribution of the ratio of two independent normal random variables

The distribution of the ratio of two independent normal random variables X and Y is heavy tailed and has no moments. The shape of its density can be unimodal, bimodal, symmetric, asymmetric, and/or even similar to a normal distribution close to its mode. To our knowledge, conditions for a reasonable normal approximation to the distribution of Z = X/Y have been presented in scientific literature only through simulations and empirical results. A proof of the existence of a proposed normal approximation to the distribution of Z, in an interval I centered at β = E(X) /E(Y), is given here for the case where both X and Y are independent, have positive means, and their coefficients of variation fulfill some conditions. In addition, a graphical informative way of assessing the closeness of the distribution of a particular ratio X/Y to the proposed normal approximation is suggested by means of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.