Adolescent Religiosity and School Contexts*

Objectives. Schools serve as the primary social organizations for adolescents, structuring their lives and conveying a variety of skills, norms, and values, but relatively little is known about how schools influence the development of religious belief, attitudes, and behavior during adolescence. We explore how schools' religious norms, coupled with adolescents' pursuit of social status through conformity, affect public and private religiosity. Methods. Employing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we use multilevel modeling to examine the impact of school context on adolescents' public and private religiosity. Results. We find that school norms are influential in shaping both public religious expressions and private devotional activities, but pursuit of social status is a motivation for change across religious contexts only of public religious activity. The effect of social status as a motivator of religious change was moderated by the strength of the adolescent's identification with the school, especially for private religiosity. Conclusions. Schools play a key role in the social development of adolescents, and students' religious beliefs and behaviors are influenced systematically and observably by the type of religious climate within the school.     

Five tumultuous years in Australian child protection: little progress

In an article published in 2002, one of the authors of this paper offered an analysis of the Australian child protection data from 1999 to 2000 and raised questions about the effectiveness of mandatory reporting. Recently, child protection data for 2003–2004 has been released. This provides an opportunity to re‐examine some child protection issues and the effectiveness of mandatory reporting 5 years on. These have been tumultuous years. Each state and territory has held major inquiries into this area of practice and, as a result, significant organizational changes have taken place and new resources are being made available. Nevertheless, questions about the effectiveness of child protection services remain. There is continuing doubt about the value of comprehensive reporting systems.     

The Identification of Behaviour Disorder within the Community

In the absence of a clinical definition of Behaviour Disorder, those termed ‘Behaviourally Disordered’ are often considered unsuitable for psychiatric servicing and many end up inappropriately contained by the correctional system. The working definitions of 213 South Australian health and welfare professionals from six client areas (child/adolescent, psychiatric, intellectually disabled, brain-damaged, correctional and general) were surveyed. Respondents generally saw Behaviour Disorder as a recognisable disorder, involving both aggressive, disruptive behaviour and deficits in social adaptation. Perceptions of its presentation varied across client groups and across professional roles. The results highlighted a need for specialised community servicing for this group.     

Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk‐ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.     

On the number of separable partitions

Consider partitions of a given set A of n distinct points in general position in ℝ ^d into parts where each pair of parts can be separated by a hyperplane that contains a given set of points E. We consider the problem of counting and generating all such partitions (correcting a classic 1967 result of Harding about the number of such partitions into two parts). Applications of the result to partition problems are presented.     

Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data

Using West German panel data constructed from the 1988 and 1994/1995 wave of the DJI Familiensurvey, we analyze the stability and determinants of individuals’ total desired fertility. We find considerable variation of total desired fertility across respondents and across interviews. In particular, up to 50% of individuals report a different total desired fertility across survey waves. Multivariate analysis confirms the importance of background factors including growing up with both parents, having more siblings, and being Catholic for preference formation. Consistent with the idea that life course experiences provide new information regarding the expected costs and benefits of different family sizes, the influence of background factors on total desired fertility is strong early in life and weakens as subsequent life course experiences, including childbearing, take effect. Accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we estimate that an additional child may increase the total desired fertility of women with children by 0.14 children, less than what conventional estimates from cross-sectional data would have suggested.     

Entropy as a measure of centrality in networks characterized by path-transfer flow

Recently, Borgatti [Borgatti, S.P., 2005. Centrality and network flow. Social Networks 27, 55–71] proposed a taxonomy of centrality measures based on the way that traffic flows through the network—whether over path, geodesic, trail, or walk, and whether by means of transfer, serial duplication, or parallel duplication. Most of the extant centrality measures assume that traffic propagates via parallel duplication or, alternatively, that it travels over geodesics. Few of the other flow possibilities have centrality measures associated with them. This article proposes an entropy-based measure of centrality appropriate for traffic that propagates by transfer and flows along paths. The proposed measure can be applied to most network types, whether binary or weighted, directed or undirected, connected or disconnected. The measure is illustrated on the gang alliance network of Kennedy et al. [Kennedy, D.M., Braga, A. A., Piehl, A.M., 1998. The (un)known universe: mapping gangs and gang violence in Boston. Crime Prevention Studies 8, 219–262].