CONVERGENCE AND PREDICTION OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENT SCORES IN HIGH-DIMENSIONAL SETTINGS

A number of settings arise in which it is of interest to predict Principal Component (PC) scores for new observations using data from an initial sample. In this paper, we demonstrate that naive approaches to PC score prediction can be substantially biased towards 0 in the analysis of large matrices. This phenomenon is largely related to known inconsistency results for sample eigenvalues and eigenvectors as both dimensions of the matrix increase. For the spiked eigenvalue model for random matrices, we expand the generality of these results, and propose bias-adjusted PC score prediction. In addition, we compute the asymptotic correlation coefficient between PC scores from sample and population eigenvectors. Simulation and real data examples from the genetics literature show the improved bias and numerical properties of our estimators.     

WOMEN'S RISING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND INCREASED LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION

This paper examines the secular increase in the labor market activity of married women in the United States from 1975 to 1991. The research stresses two findings consistent with the hypothesis that married women increased their attachment to the labor force during this time period. First, increasing duration, not incidence, of married women's employment spells contributes the most to the increase in their rate of employment from 1975 to 1991. Second, the increase in married women's employment over the 1980s is largely due to their increased willingness to work more at any given wage, not their rising wage opportunities. ( JEL J22, J31, J64)     

Of Piddley Results and Unanticipated Consequences: Comments on Fein

Fein's discussion of race relations is anchored in two basic objections to planned social change. First, such attempts involve problematic ethical and values choices. Second, the very nature of society confounds our best efforts at reform. While this paper offers no solutions to the ethical dilemmas, it does contend that guided social change is not as fruitless or dangerous as Fein implies.     

Social Work Education

The authors assess the current state of social work education and make suggestions for its improvement, which include distinguishing between specialized and professional knowledge courses, teaching interpersonal skills for working with organizations and communities, differentiating subventionary and instrumental interventions, reformulating course content on policy and administration, dealing with the problems of social work’s expanding curriculum, broadening the range of activities and methods taught in social work research courses, providing incentives for collective faculty participation in curriculum development, and acknowledging the persistent anti-intellectual undercurrent in social work.     

Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York

In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind contracts, wind generated power, etc. Furthermore, we discuss some striking resemblances with temperature dynamics.     

Transportation of Older People in a Rural Community

Abstract

This paper documents changes over the period 1982 to 1997 in the risks and costs of involuntary job loss among different occupational groups. Using data from the Displaced Workers Surveys, it shows that the rate of job loss increased among white-collar workers. This increased displacement risk results from the growing proportion of jobs lost because positions or shifts were abolished, a reason that likely captures the much-publicized effects of corporate restructuring. The evidence regarding occupational shifts in the costs of job loss is mixed: The reemployment rates of all occupational groups rose during the recent economic expansion, and the reemployment chances of those displaced from professional and managerial jobs remained comparatively high. However, the post-displacement wage losses of managerial employees have increased both over time and relative to those of other occupational groups. The increase in the proportionate wage loss of this occupational group is not explained by compositional effects and may be the result of organizational change.     

Bilingual Education Programs: A Cross-National Perspective

We examine alternative forms of bilingual education that have significant implications for intergroup relationships and the reduction of prejudice in two different national settings: Canada and the United States. The Canadian programs are intended for English-speaking students from the culturally dominant group, whereas the U.S. programs we discuss are intended for language minority and language majority students. Both aim to promote proficiency in English and another language. These programs provide many of the conditions that are argued to be essential for the reduction of prejudice and discrimination. They also provide students with the communication skills and cultural awareness that facilitates intergroup contact. The history and current structure of these programs along with salient educational practices are reviewed, and research relevant to changes in intergroup behavior and attitudes is discussed.     

Portfolio assessment in a collaborative program evaluation: the reliability and validity of a family literacy portfolio

Evaluations increasingly use open-ended assessments, such as portfolios, to gather information about program impact. Portfolios, however, present challenges in achieving acceptable levels of reliability and often lack evidence to support validity. This article describes the components of a portfolio assessment system developed in a collaborative evaluation of a family literacy program. Staff of a family literacy program and two evaluators collaborated to develop the assessment and the tools that frame the review of the portfolios. Rubrics, exemplar portfolios, portfolio logs, and lists of ‘look-fors’ were developed to guide raters in the scoring and to improve the reliability of scores and validity of decisions about the program. Inter-rater reliability for the portfolio assessment was 0.79 for holistic scores and 0.74 for analytic scores. With respect to validity, holistic and analytic scores correlated with criterion measures from 0.50 to 0.59, providing initial evidence of a common construct.     

DIFFICULT JOURNAL ARTICLE REJECTIONS AMONG PROLIFIC FAMILY THERAPISTS: A QUALITATIVE CRITICAL INCIDENT STUDY

This qualitative cirtical incident study examines the reactions and coping strategies of prolific family therapy scholars to difficult journal article rejections. Participants provide suggestions for ways to increase the likelihood of publication and to decrease the negative effects of journal article rejection. We discuss the implications of this investigations for the socialization of young professionals, the improvement of the journal review process, and the study of professional issues in family therapy.     

REVIEWS

Proffessional Books:-Walter, J. L., & Peller, J. E. (1992). Becoming solution-focused in brief therapy.
Proffessional Books:-Nelson, T. S., & trepper, T. S. (Eds.). (1993). 101 interventions in family therapy .
Proffessional Books:-Imber-Black, E. (Ed.). (1993). Secrets in families and family therapy .
Proffessional Books:-Hanks, R. S., Matocha, L., & Sussman, M. B. (Eds.). (1992). Publishing in journals on the family .
Proffessional Books:-Shapiro, C. H. (1993). When part of the self is lost: Helping clients heal after sexual and reproductive losses .
Self-Help Books:-Smith, S. L. (1993). Making peace with your adult children: A guide to family healing .
Self-Help Books:-Gilbert, R. M. (1992). Extraordinary relationships: A new way of thinking about human interactions .
Audio And Videotapereviews:- Working with Couples in Conflict . (1992). (Audiotape of a workshop of a workshop by Susan M. Heitler).
Audio And Videotape Reviews:- Couples and Communication (1992). (Videotape for teaching communication skills to couples).