DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY

We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83)     

Relational Health and Masculine Gender-Role Conflict in the Friendships and Community Relationships of Bisexual,Gay, and Straight Men

This study examined how men's masculine gender-role conflict and the importance men placed on interpersonal relationships in defining their self-identities predicted their relational health experiences in same-sex, dyadic friendships and community relationships. Using an Internet sample of 283 self-identified bisexual, gay, and straight men, results of hierarchical linear regression analyses indicated that for men across sexual orientations, the more importance men placed on interpersonal relationships with other men, the greater the degree of relational health they experienced in dyadic friendships. Additionally, for bisexual and gay men in dyadic friendships with other men, gender-role conflict was inversely related to the relational health of their friendships. In the domain of community relationships, the importance that bisexual and straight men placed on interpersonal relationships in defining their self-identities and levels of gender-role conflict predicted relational health experiences. For gay men, however, feelings of masculine gender-role conflict, alone, predicted poorer relational health in community relationships. Study limitations, clinical implications for practice, and future research directions are discussed.     

Framing the Problem of Sex Trafficking

News media play an important role in explaining the issue of sex trafficking and may influence discourse among the public and policymakers. Understanding the ways that mass media address sex trafficking has implications for the news industry and the global status of women. This study, a quantitative content analysis, analyzed news coverage of sex trafficking in major US newspapers to understand how the issue was framed during a year of coverage. Using Entman's typology to classify the function of frames, the study focused on how news coverage defined the problem of sex trafficking and identified the remedy. The study found that news coverage of trafficking was overwhelmingly framed as a crime issue (episodic not thematic) and proposed no remedies. Most news coverage favored official sources. Survivors of trafficking and their advocates were the least heard-from sources. The authors argue ultimately that if media are to fulfill their watchdog role where trafficking is concerned, a wider range of news frames and sources is needed.     

Insurgency and institutionalization: the Polanyian countermovement and Chinese labor politics

Why is it that in the nearly 10 years since the Chinese central government began making symbolic and material moves towards class compromise that labor unrest has expanded greatly? In this article I reconfigure Karl Polanyi’s theory of the coutermovement to account for recent developments in Chinese labor politics. Specifically, I argue that countermovements must be broken down into two constituent but intertwined “moments”: the insurgent moment that consists of spontaneous resistance to the market, and the institutional moment, when class compromise is established in the economic and political spheres. In China, the transition from insurgency to institutionalization has thus far been confounded by conditions of “appropriated representation,” where the only worker organizations allowed to exist are those within the state-run All China Federation of Trade Unions. However, in drawing on two case studies of strikes in capital-intensive industries in Guangdong province, I show that the relationship between insurgency and institutionalization shifted between 2007 and 2010.     

A longitudinal study of newspaper and wire service coverage of nanotechnology risks

This study reviewed coverage of nanotechnology risks in 20 U.S. and 9 U.K. newspapers and 2 wire services from 2000 to 2009. It focused on information that citizens could come across in daily newspaper reading that could highlight the salience of these issues and alert readers to potential risks. Few articles about nanotechnology health, environmental, and societal risks were found in these publications during this period, averaging only 36.7 per year for both countries. The coverage emphasized three main narratives over time: runaway technology, science-based studies, and regulation. Health risks were covered most frequently, followed by environmental and societal risk issues. Regulation coverage was not as frequent but increased over time. The majority of the coverage focused on news events and 10 events drew modest media attention. Scientific uncertainty discussions appeared in about half of the articles, and scientists and engineers were the dominant information sources in both countries. Some significant differences between U.S. and U.K. coverage were found: U.K. coverage emphasized more societal concerns, while U.S. coverage paid more attention to environmental risks. Because the volume of coverage was not extensive and was counterbalanced by many more articles extolling nanotechnology's benefits, it is questionable whether this coverage alerted readers about potential nanotechnology risks. Coupled with citizens' minimal knowledge about nanotechnology, this type of coverage could create public distrust of nanotechnology applications should a dangerous risk event occur.     

Estimation of a standard measuring error by repeated measurements and sortings

A sorting-and-measuring machine (SMM) measures and sorts (classifies) on-line produced items into several groups according to their size. The measuring devices of the SMM perceive the actual item size with a random error ε and classify the item as being smaller than b iff z+ε<b. Here ε is a normal zero-mean r.v. with unknown standard deviation σ which is the main parameter characterizing the precision and technical condition of an SMM. The paper gives the following method of estimating σ. N₀ items are measured and N₁ of them are recognized by the SMM as belonging to the group a<z≤b. These N₁ items are sorted again and N₂ of them return to this group, these are sorted again, and so on. The estimation of σ is based on the statistics N_m/N_n. Moments of the ratio statistics N_m/N_n and their distributional properties are investigated. It turns out that the expected value of N_m/N_n depends almost linearly on σ which allows us to construct ‘almost’ unbiased estimators of type $\text{σ}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{mn}}\text{=A}\textcolor{red}{}\text{N}{}_{\mathrm{m}}\text{/N}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{+B}$ with good propert including robustness with respect to the distribution of item size. Convex combinations of $\text{σ}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{mn}}$ statistics are considered to obtain an estimator with minimal variance.     

Social Support and Career Optimism: Examining the Effectiveness of Network Groups Among Black Managers

As companies look for better ways to managediversity, one of the approaches that is emerging is theuse of female and minoritynetwork groups. These groupsare not well understood, and there has been no quantitative analysis of their impact onminority employees. Social network theory suggests thatnetwork groups should enhance the social resourcesavailable to women and minorities and in that wayenhance their chance of career success, but somecritics of network groups suggest that backlash mightproduce greater social isolation and discrimination. Inthis paper, we analyze a survey of members of theNational Black MBA Association to find out whethernetwork groups have a positive impact on careeroptimism, what specific effects of these groups are mostbeneficial, and whether groups enhance isolation ordiscrimination. Results indicate that network groups have apositive overall impact on career optimism of Blackmanagers, and that this occurs primarily via enhancedmentoring. Network groups have no effect ondiscrimination, either positive or negative. There are someindications of greater isolation, but also someindications of greater contact with Whites.     

Social protection for retirees: the diminishing role of employers

Jobs are changing in ways that will reduce benefits for retirees. This paper explores the variety of pressures that will tend to produce this result. One major factor is that employers have been responding to cost pressures and the need for flexibility by redesigning jobs. There has been a trend--which is likely to continue--toward more part-time and temporary jobs, more subcontracting, and more contingent-pay systems. The consequences are complex and not all bad, but for retirees the tendency will be toward fewer, less generous, or less secure benefits. As workers approach retirement age facing the prospect of diminished benefits, increasing numbers of them will have to choose work to maintain their standard of living. At the same time, demographic pressures will gradually push employers to seek new pools of workers, including retirees. Gradually, employers are likely to provide fewer social-protection benefits to older people, but more employment opportunities.