Microdata Access and Labor Market Research: The U. S. Experience

Summary: The paper illustrates the value of broad researcher access to survey and administrative microdata using examples drawn from the U. S. experience, outlining how analyses of trends in earnings inequality, poverty and employment dynamics using such data have benefited policy makers and contributed to improvements in statistical agency data products. Methods of facilitating researcher access, including the release of public use files, the use of licensing agreements, and the establishment of research data centers, are discussed. * The author thanks Anne Polivka, Marilyn Seastrom and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

A Semi-parametric Bayesian Analysis of Survival Data Based on Lévy-driven Processes

In the presence of covariate information, the proportional hazards model is one of the most popular models. In this paper, in a Bayesian nonparametric framework, we use a Markov (Lévy-driven) process to model the baseline hazard rate. Previous Bayesian nonparametric models have been based on neutral to the right processes, which have a number of drawbacks, such as discreteness of the cumulative hazard function. We allow the covariates to be time dependent functions and develop a full posterior analysis via substitution sampling. A detailed illustration is presented.     

A modified false discovery rate multiple-comparisons procedure for discrete data, applied to human immunodeficiency virus genetics

Summary.  To help to design vaccines for acquired immune deficiency syndrome that protect broadly against many genetic variants of the human immunodeficiency virus, the mutation rates at 118 positions in HIV amino-acid sequences of subtype C versus those of subtype B were compared. The false discovery rate (FDR) multiple-comparisons procedure can be used to determine statistical significance. When the test statistics have discrete distributions, the FDR procedure can be made more powerful by a simple modification. The paper develops a modified FDR procedure for discrete data and applies it to the human immunodeficiency virus data. The new procedure detects 15 positions with significantly different mutation rates compared with 11 that are detected by the original FDR method. Simulations delineate conditions under which the modified FDR procedure confers large gains in power over the original technique. In general FDR adjustment methods can be improved for discrete data by incorporating the modification proposed.     

Statistics for weighing benefits and harms in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized cancer prevention trial

Summary.  When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes.     

BAYESIAN HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS FOR LONGITUDINAL COUNTS

This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modelling carcinogenity in animal studies where the data consist of counts of the number of tumours present over time. It compares two autoregressive hidden Markov models. One of them models the transitions between three latent states: an inactive transient state, a multiplying state for increasing counts and a reducing state for decreasing counts. The second model introduces a fourth tied state to describe non‐zero observations that are neither increasing nor decreasing. Both these models can model the length of stay upon entry of a state. A discrete constant hazards waiting time distribution is used to model the time to onset of tumour growth. Our models describe between‐animal‐variability by a single hierarchy of random effects and the within‐animal variation by first‐order serial dependence. They can be extended to higher‐order serial dependence and multi‐level hierarchies. Analysis of data from animal experiments comparing the influence of two genes leads to conclusions that differ from those of Dunson (2000). The observed data likelihood defines an information criterion to assess the predictive properties of the three‐ and four‐state models. The deviance information criterion is appropriately defined for discrete parameters.     

A LOTTO SYSTEMS PROBLEM

A Lotto Systems bet allows the player to nominate n numbers from which (s)he believes the winning six numbers will be drawn, and to bet on all combinations of six of these n numbers. Assume that the winning six numbers come from the nominated n. How many combinations must be entered to guarantee that one combination will include at least five of the winning six numbers? The problem is generalized in this paper, and the method of simulated annealing is used to find solutions for various situations. The case where two supplementary numbers are drawn after the initial six winning numbers is also considered.     

Economic Growth or Survival? The Problematic Case of Child Mortality in Turkey

Turkey is a country which is demographically unclassifiable because its persistently high infant mortality is out of line with its socio-economic indicators and its low fertility. The rapid modernisation of Turkey over the last three decades, which might have been expected to have had a favourable effect upon infant survival, has not in this respect lived up to expectation. The stresses resulting from economic growth and the high level of female workforce participation have perhaps tended to distract women from child care. Also, neither Ottoman nor republican Turkish traditions have encouraged an enhancement of the status of childhood.Unconventional sources: ethnology, literature, cinema, are deployed here to construct an impression of the cultural environment of the mothers, fathers and families of dead children. Change of attitudes, very slow as far as childhood is concerned, have not yet caught up with the transition in fertility. An infant mortality rate of 53 per 1000, accompanying a total fertility rate scarcely higher than 2, is a combination difficult to find anywhere else.     

配合物ErI3.2CS（NH2）2.10H2O的制备及表征

本文根据０℃时碘化铒－硫脲（ＣＳ（ＮＨ２）２－水三元体系相平衡数据,确定了配合物ＥｒＩ３．２ＣＳ（ＮＨ２）２．１０Ｈ２Ｏ的制备方法,并对所得 进行化学分析、Ｘ－射线粉末衍射、红外光谱、差热分析,测定其密度,折光指数及轴性,确定配合物结构中的配位关系。     

德国关于电子电气设备的闭环供应链研究：一种生态效益计算方法

近来关于闭环供应链网络的文献中提出了两个重要问题：（1）如何制定平衡环境和经济效益的优化方案；（2）如何深刻理解二者间的效益背反关系。本文认为，针对环境和经济闭的效益边界及其背反关系进行全面探索，可以有效解决环境保护和经济发展中的效益平衡问题。为了解决求解效益边界的多变量问题，本文设计了一个针对目标函数中的数值进行指数计算的生态效益算法，并在德国电子电气设备闭环供应链设计中进行了实证研究。     

过程中的心理治疗

身体和心理都是极其复杂的,且二者有着迥然相异的模式,心理治疗会被这些模式所影响.怀特海主义者所从事的心理咨询强调治疗方法的多样性,但这并不意味着所有形式的心理治疗的构想和具体形式都是令人满意的.很多常见问题的产生缘于实体思维的不断加重:这在某些情境下将导致对于自我中心的放纵;在另一些情境中将促进对于终生的、固定的潜能的追寻;而在另一些情境下将导致对个体完全自主的张扬.在这些心理疗法中或许能找到一些积极的内容,但其理论上的错误仍然导致了很多问题的产生和不必要的付出.针对这一情况,怀特海过程思想除了能提供一种批判性的评价各种疗法的视野之外,也提出了一些具体的做法.