<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">MAD-STEC</Emphasis>: a method for multiple automatic detection of space-time emerging clusters

Crime or disease surveillance commonly rely in space-time clustering methods to identify emerging patterns. The goal is to detect spatial-temporal clusters as soon as possible after its occurrence and to control the rate of false alarms. With this in mind, a spatio-temporal multiple cluster detection method was developed as an extension of a previous proposal based on a spatial version of the Shiryaev–Roberts statistic. Besides the capability of multiple cluster detection, the method have less input parameter than the previous proposal making its use more intuitive to practitioners. To evaluate the new methodology a simulation study is performed in several scenarios and enlighten many advantages of the proposed method. Finally, we present a case study to a crime data-set in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.     

Enabling robust assessment of QTc prolongation in early phase clinical trials

Since the implementation of the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) E14 guideline in 2005, regulators have required a “thorough QTc” (TQT) study for evaluating the effects of investigational drugs on delayed cardiac repolarization as manifested by a prolonged QTc interval. However, TQT studies have increasingly been viewed unfavorably because of their low cost effectiveness. Several researchers have noted that a robust drug concentration‐QTc (conc‐QTc) modeling assessment in early phase development should, in most cases, obviate the need for a subsequent TQT study. In December 2015, ICH released an “E14 Q&As (R3)” document supporting the use of conc‐QTc modeling for regulatory decisions. In this article, we propose a simple improvement of two popular conc‐QTc assessment methods for typical first‐in‐human crossover‐like single ascending dose clinical pharmacology trials. The improvement is achieved, in part, by leveraging routinely encountered (and expected) intrasubject correlation patterns encountered in such trials. A real example involving a single ascending dose and corresponding TQT trial, along with results from a simulation study, illustrate the strong performance of the proposed method. The improved conc‐QTc assessment will further enable highly reliable go/no‐go decisions in early phase clinical development and deliver results that support subsequent TQT study waivers by regulators.     

A copula-based Markov chain model for the analysis of binary longitudinal data

A fully parametric first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model is proposed to analyse binary longitudinal data. By using a discretized version of a copula, the modelling approach allows one to construct separate models for the marginal response and for the dependence between adjacent responses. In particular, the transition model that is focused on discretizes the Gaussian copula in such a way that the marginal is a Bernoulli distribution. A probit link is used to take into account concomitant information in the behaviour of the underlying marginal distribution. Fixed and time-varying covariates can be included in the model. The method is simple and is a natural extension of the AR(1) model for Gaussian series. Since the approach put forward is likelihood-based, it allows interpretations and inferences to be made that are not possible with semi-parametric approaches such as those based on generalized estimating equations. Data from a study designed to reduce the exposure of children to the sun are used to illustrate the methods.     

Nonparametric control charts based on runs and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics

In this article, we introduce three new distribution-free Shewhart-type control charts that exploit run and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics to detect possible shifts of a monitored process. Exact formulae for the alarm rate, the run length distribution, and the average run length (ARL) are all derived. A key advantage of these charts is that, due to their nonparametric nature, the false alarm rate (FAR) and in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Tables are provided for the implementation of the charts for some typical FAR values. Furthermore, a numerical study carried out reveals that the new charts are quite flexible and efficient in detecting shifts to Lehmann-type out-of-control situations.     

Copula structure analysis

Summary.  We extend the standard approach of correlation structure analysis for dimension reduction of high dimensional statistical data. The classical assumption of a linear model for the distribution of a random vector is replaced by the weaker assumption of a model for the copula. For elliptical copulas a correlation-like structure remains, but different margins and non-existence of moments are possible. After introducing the new concept and deriving some theoretical results we observe in a simulation study the performance of the estimators: the theoretical asymptotic behaviour of the statistics can be observed even for small sample sizes. Finally, we show our method at work for a financial data set and explain differences between our copula-based approach and the classical approach. Our new method yielear models also.     

Non-asymptotic sequential confidence regions with fixed sizes for the multivariate nonlinear parameters of regression

In this paper we consider a sequential design for the estimation of nonlinear parameters of regression with guaranteed accuracy. Non-asymptotic confidence regions with fixed sizes for the least squares estimates are used. The obtained confidence region is valid for finite numbers of data points when the distributions of the observations are unknown.     

Toward a multi‐ethnic public sphere? Media consumption in highly diverse districts in Spain

This article examines media consumption in highly diverse districts in Spain as representative of recent changes in this field due to new immigration to countries in Southern Europe in times of crisis. Drawing on findings from two surveys, we observed a decrease in access to media specifically aimed at audiences of minority cultures between 2010 and 2012. It is suggested that this decline is not due to a modification in media consumption habits by minority groups, but rather the economic crisis of 2008. Furthermore, we study the consumption of minority media by natives: we observe that youth and more educated individuals consume other cultures’ minority media to a greater extent, particularly the press, radio, and Internet news sources. We suggest that elements are present that public administrations could utilize to further develop a multi‐ethnic public sphere. Finally, we explore the emergence of a new transnational dimension to the multi‐ethnic public sphere.     

Five Star Teacher: In-Service on the Move

Teachers learned knowledge, skills, values, and dispositions through spending significant amounts of time working with heritage sites as they learned more about social studies. Elementary social studies teachers engaged in teacher in-service to increase their abilities to meet geography standards. Teacher professional development that caused instructors to engage with cultural and historic sites benefited them and should be considered as well as other models of teacher in-service. Teachers used study travel opportunities to engage in geographic investigation and exploration to accomplish inquiry. Teachers determined that extended time was required to experience the place, to value it, and to harbor the disposition to teach about it; they learned in-depth content from spending time on-site, and they learned skills to extract knowledge from site through reading the landscape. Teachers encountered multiple perspectives, technology, and controversial issues through their studies of regions in the Ohio River Valley. Teachers of elementary social studies may wish to consider this type of professional development to understand a sense of place and how it relates to the curriculum they teach.     

Alone and adrift: The association between mass school shootings,school size,and student support

Background

School shootings have approached epidemic levels in recent years. While mental illness is undoubtedly involved in nearly all cases of mass school violence, we sought to determine how environmental context may exacerbate preexisting personal factors. The present study investigated the associations between mass school shootings, school enrollment size, student–teacher ratios, and student transitions.