The role of inferential accuracy in performance rating

The presence of shared implicit theories of performance is used in explaining the failure of behavioral anchors to improve performance ratings. It is proposed that efforts to improve rating accuracy also will be hampered by a preoccupation with observation. Instead, attention needs to be focused on the inferential accuracy of the rater and the cognitive processes and implicit theories upon which raters rely.     

The McMaster Model of Family Functioning

The model of family functioning being presented is the product of over twenty years of research in clinical work with family units. A method of family therapy has been developed based upon this model and will be described in a future issue. The model utilizes a general systems theory approach in an attempt to describe the structure, organization, and transactional patterns of the family unit. It allows examination of families along the total spectrum ranging from healthy to severely pathological in their functioning. It is based upon a Judaeo-Christian value set, and allows attention to be paid to cultural differences and other issues of cultural relativity .     

The role of natural recovery in alcoholism and pathological gambling

While most pathological gamblers, like most alcohol abusers, recover on their own, it seems likely that they are at greater risk for relapse than those who have been through successful treatment. Accordingly, a substantial increase in treatment resources for pathological gamblers, along with greater efforts to establish the effectiveness of these treatments, ought to receive national priority. If the data on alcohol-abusing self-changers are generalizable to self-changing pathological gamblers, the prognosis for gamblers who stop gambling all together is better than for those who aspire to controlled or nonproblem gambling. While pathological gamblers with comorbid substance abuse are more difficult to treat than those without it, the impact of comorbid substance abuse on the decision by pathological gamblers to change has not yet been explored, although it should be. Similarly, the impact of other Axis I pathology on pathological gambling self-change, especially depression and anxiety, should be thoroughly explored. The most pressing problem in this field appears to be definitional. As a consequence, until consensus is reached on a reliable, valid, and useful classification scheme for pathological gambling, both research and clinical efforts will continue to suffer.     

The demographics of unfunded pensions

The performance of pay-as-you-go old-age insurance under different demographic conditions can be estimated from a metric consisting of the implicit rate of return to successive cohorts. We show a positive return for the prospective population over the next few years, but for cohorts born after the end of the century returns will become sharply negative. A decline in returns is typical of pay-as-you-go schemes as they mature, and a change to negative returns is typical in particular as the birth rate falls under fixed economic conditions. The return can be kept positive by greatly increased fertility or immigration. Taking labour-force participation rates into account, and supposing entitlement independent of contribution, gives much larger negative rates of return, however. The main calculations considered here are for schemes with a constant pension. If the contribution rather than the pension is kept constant then the disparities between cohorts with respect to their returns are smaller, and although the negative returns for future generations then set in earlier they are smaller. The conclusions of the paper are broadly applicable to any population that showed a baby boom after World War II and replacement-level or lower fertility subsequently.     

Psychology Implies Paternalism? Bounded Rationality may Reduce the Rationale to Regulate Risk-Taking

Behavioral economists increasingly argue that violations of rationality axioms provide a new rationale for paternalism – to “de-bias” individuals who exhibit errors, biases and other allegedly pathological psychological regularities associated with Tversky and Kahneman’s (in Science 185:1124–1131, 1974) heuristics-and-biases program. The argument is flawed, however, in neglecting to distinguish aggregate from individual rationality. The aggregate consequences of departures from normative decision-making axioms may be Pareto-inferior or superior. Without a well-specified theory of aggregation, individual-level biases do not necessarily imply losses in efficiency. This paper considers the problem of using a social-welfare function to decide whether to regulate risk-taking behavior in a population whose individual-level behavior may or may not be consistent with expected utility maximization. According to the social-welfare objective, unregulated aggregate risk distributions resulting from non-maximizing behavior are often more acceptable (i.e., lead to a weaker rationale for paternalism) than population distributions generated by behavior that conforms to the standard axioms. Thus, psychological theories that depart from axiomatic decision-making norms do not necessarily strengthen the case for paternalism, and conformity with such norms is generally not an appropriate policy-making objective in itself.     

Relational Aggression in Middle Childhood: Predictors and Adolescent Outcomes

This study examined gender differences in the level and developmental course of relational aggression in middle childhood, as well as early predictors and outcomes of relational aggression, after controlling for concurrent physical aggression. Relational (RAgg) and Physical aggression (PAgg) scores for 558 boys and 545 girls at the ages of eight to 11 in the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (SECCYD) were created by combining the highest rating for each item across mother and teacher reports. Longitudinal analyses were conducted using latent curve models of RAgg with PAgg as a time‐varying covariate, with all parameters allowed to vary by gender. Boys and girls had different growth parameters of RAgg. Girls' RAgg intercept was higher, and the slope was not different from zero; boys' RAgg intercept was lower, and the slope declined. Mother–child conflict in early childhood predicted RAgg intercept for both boys and girls, but maternal harsh control and sensitivity were also uniquely predictive for girls whereas center care was uniquely predictive for boys. RAgg intercept predicted adolescent self‐reports of depression for girls and delinquency and risk‐taking for both boys and girls; the magnitude of the association with risk taking was significantly greater for boys.     

A cumulative ecological–transactional risk model of child maltreatment and behavioral outcomes: Reconceptualizing early maltreatment report as risk factor

The current analysis was designed to critically examine the tendency to focus on child maltreatment as a unique risk factor and test the resulting assumption of a direct causal relationship between early maltreatment and later behavioral problems. The variation seen in behavioral outcomes among children reported for maltreatment early in life led us to hypothesize that the cumulative level of risk facing children and their families can, at least in part, account for that variation in outcome. Participants were 242 mothers of predominantly at-risk newborn infants who were interviewed shortly after giving birth. The State Central Registry of Maltreatment was then reviewed over each child's first four years of life to assess for early maltreatment. Following the neonatal interviews, mothers completed the Child Behavior Checklist when their children were 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 years-of-age. Although early maltreatment report does appear to be important to early child functioning, the cumulative level of risk more strongly predicts long-term clinical behavioral difficulty. High-risk children who were not reported for maltreatment by age 4 demonstrate greater behavioral problem trajectories than did low-risk children with a maltreatment report. Maltreatment itself may be best conceptualized as an important, but not singularly so, risk factor for later behavioral problems. In focusing directly on reported maltreatment, our child protective systems may be paying too little attention to what else is going wrong in the lives of children and targeting intervention efforts in the wrong direction. When it comes to early maltreatment our child protective policy and practice need to broaden their lenses to include greater emphasis on overall family functioning, stress and well-being. Early maltreatment, it seems, may be a symptom of more profound problems in the early environments of our most vulnerable children, rather than the problem itself.     

A lofistic rlgression analysis of response-time data where the hazard function is time dependent

A logistic-exponential model for analyzing response-time data involving regressor variables is modified to allow for non-consrarey of the hazard function. For the discrete observation case illustrated the logit of the probability of responding in a time interval cf arbitrary length is taken as the sum of a function of resressor variables and a function of the time variable. The particular functions chosen in the two medical examples analyzed are linear in the parameters involved. A polynomial function of time is employed in the absence of knowledge as to a more appropriate form. Various issues arising in the analysis made are discussed.     

THE McMASTER FAMILY ASSESSMENT DEVICE: RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY*

This paper reports a series of studies investigating the reliability and validity of the McMaster Family Assessment Device (FAD). The results indicated that the FAD has: (a) adequate test-retest reliability, (b) low correlations with social desirability, (c) moderate correlations with other self-report measures of family functioning, and (d) differentiates significantly between clinician-rated healthy and unhealthy families. Cut-off scores for identifying healthy and unhealthy families also were developed which have adequate sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, the relationships between the FAD, Family Unit Inventory, and FACES-II suggests that the cohension and adaptability scales from the FACES-II have a linear relationship with health/pathology.     

Energy consumption and limits to global emissions of carbon dioxide: Australia and the world

Attempts to limit global emissions of the greenhouse gases and in particular carbon dioxide must take account of the rapidly increasing populations and the continuing increase in the per-capita consumption of fossil fuels in much of the world. For many countries to achieve the target of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions based on 1988 consumptions, far larger per-capita reductions are necessary. For Australia the cut is approximately 40%. The increases in global emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from the attainment of only very modest per-capita consumptions by the developing countries will far outweigh any reductions achieved by the developed world.Support for this project from the Australian Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.