Reverse Regression and Employment Discrimination

The importance of interval forecasts is reviewed. Several general approaches to calculating such forecasts are described and compared. They include the use of theoretical formulas based on a fitted probability model (with or without a correction for parameter uncertainty), various “approximate” formulas (which should be avoided), and empirically based, simulation, and resampling procedures. The latter are useful when theoretical formulas are not available or there are doubts about some model assumptions. The distinction between a forecasting method and a forecasting model is expounded. For large groups of series, a forecasting method may be chosen in a fairly ad hoc way. With appropriate checks, it may be possible to base interval forecasts on the model for which the method is optimal. It is certainly unsound to use a model for which the method is not optimal, but, strangely, this is sometimes done. Some general comments are made as to why prediction intervals tend to be too narrow in practice to encompass the required proportion of future observations. An example demonstrates the overriding importance of careful model specification. In particular, when data are “nearly nonstationary,” the difference between fitting a stationary and a nonstationary model is critical.     

Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models and Frailty Models with Bayesian Nonparametric Mixing

This paper proposes Bayesian nonparametric mixing for some well-known and popular models. The distribution of the observations is assumed to contain an unknown mixed effects term which includes a fixed effects term, a function of the observed covariates, and an additive or multiplicative random effects term. Typically these random effects are assumed to be independent of the observed covariates and independent and identically distributed from a distribution from some known parametric family. This assumption may be suspect if either there is interaction between observed covariates and unobserved covariates or the fixed effects predictor of observed covariates is misspecified. Another cause for concern might be simply that the covariates affect more than just the location of the mixed effects distribution. As a consequence the distribution of the random effects could be highly irregular in modality and skewness leaving parametric families unable to model the distribution adequately. This paper therefore proposes a Bayesian nonparametric prior for the random effects to capture possible deviances in modality and skewness and to explore the observed covariates' effect on the distribution of the mixed effects.     

Invasion. A hospital in transition following the 1983 Grenadian intervention

Stress, confusion, and a sense of loss were inevitable during the hospital relocation, especially given the large number of clients, ward communities, and staff needed to move and adjust to change. Despite the fact that the change was perceived as a positive and progressive step in psychiatric-mental health care in Grenada, there were many obstacles and much resistance to overcome. As expected, staff's and clients' fears centered around themes of impending loss and abandonment. An understanding of the transition process, along with the availability of experienced hospital staff for support and guidance, greatly aided the relocation process. Relocation still presented problems and Mt. Gay Hospital continues to struggle to carry out the lasting and beneficial changes that will best promote a therapeutic and culturally sensitive client/staff environment. Despite the fact that the hospital relocation was not entirely self-determined, but partially imposed by political circumstances, a positive resolution of the crisis occurred. The crisis brought about the change that, in this circumstance, is seen as synonymous with growth. It acted as a catalyst to bring about help from unexpected and much needed sources (U.S.A.I.D./Project Hope), which may not have otherwise been available to facilitate such a change. Richmond Hill Mental Hospital took control and advantage of a crisis situation and made it serve its immediate and pressing need for a new psychiatric hospital.     

A Full Bayesian Non-parametric Analysis Involving a Neutral to the Right Process

Implementation of a full Bayesian non-parametric analysis involving neutral to the right processes (apart from the special case of the Dirichlet process) has been difficult for two reasons: first, the posterior distributions are complex and therefore only Bayes estimates (posterior expectations) have previously been presented; secondly, it is difficult to obtain an interpretation for the parameters of a neutral to the right process. In this paper we extend Ferguson & Phadia (1979) by presenting a general method for specifying the prior mean and variance of a neutral to the right process, providing the interpretation of the parameters. Additionally, we provide the basis for a full Bayesian analysis, via simulation, from the posterior process using a hybrid of new algorithms that is applicable to a large class of neutral to the right processes (Ferguson & Phadia only provide posterior means). The ideas are exemplified through illustrative analyses.     

The muse as mother

This paper suggests that the concept of the muse in relation to the creative process is more than a myth or cultural artifact. It is argued that the muse is a psychic recollection of our memories of the female who presided over our first experiences of consciousness as we traversed the borders of inner and outer reality—that is, the mother. The shift of consciousness required in creative activity triggers recall of this figure. Object relations theory, recent findings from infant research, and the intuitive observations of several authors are used to support this thesis. Clinical examples illustrate the application of this concept in treatment.     

Autonomy,diversity, and dissent: Conceptions of power and sources of action in the Sejarah Melayu (Raffles MS 18)

This study is concerned with exploring pre-colonial Malay ideas about power— about relationships between people and those who sought authority over them — and about the sources of social action and identity in pre-colonial Malay political culture. It examines, as its principal source for information about these issues, the Sejarah Melayu (Raffles MS 18), identifying significant instances in the text of dissent and of pluralism in Malay political culture.