Gender differences in expected compensation for earnings uncertainty and skewness in business and education

Using data measuring the labor market expectations of college seniors and juniors, who major in business and education, this paper examines gender differences in expected compensation for earnings uncertainty and skewness. Ordinary least squares regressions indicate gender differences in uncertainty and skewness in business. Estimates of expected beginning salaries indicate higher uncertainty and skewness coefficients for women compared to men. This could reflect a greater degree of risk aversion by women in business or their plans to engage in part-time work shortly after graduation. Later salary estimates indicate lower uncertainty and skewness coefficients for women. Student error in estimating these salaries may be the cause of these results. They may also reflect the plans of women in business to devote more time to the labor market later in their careers.     

Direct Inference, Probability, and a Conceptual Gulf in Risk Communication

Differences in the conceptual frameworks of scientists and nonscientists may create barriers to risk communication. This article examines two such conceptual problems. First, the logic of "direct inference" from group statistics to probabilities about specific individuals suggests that individuals might be acting rationally in refusing to apply to themselves the conclusions of regulatory risk assessments. Second, while regulators and risk assessment scientists often use an "objectivist" or "relative frequency" interpretation of probability statements, members of the public are more likely to adopt a "subjectivist" or "degree of confidence" interpretation when estimating their personal risks, and either misunderstand or significantly discount the relevance of risk assessment conclusions. If these analyses of inference and probability are correct, there may be a conceptual gulf at the center of risk communication that cannot be bridged by additional data about the magnitude of group risk. Suggestions are made for empirical studies that might help regulators deal with this conceptual gulf.     

Too Good to be False: An Essay in the Folklore of Social Science

In 1939, Carl Hovland and Robert R. Sears presented data that they believed linked fluctuations in the price of cotton to lynchings in the South, a linkage first suggested six years earlier by Arthur Raper. This correlation quickly became a popular illustration of frustration-aggression theory. A few years later, a statistical critique by Alexander Mintz cast the reality of the association into doubt, but a sample survey of members of the Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues reveals that Howland and Sears's "finding" is still widely, if imprecisely, known and accepted. Their article continues to be cited in the social-psychological literature and in many introductory textbooks. The failure of Mintz's critique to catch up with the striking but flawed, original report illustrates a structured impediment to reliable knowledge in the social sciences.     

Social inequality and art institutions

Our objective is to examine how several aspects of the class structure influence the prevalence of artistic institutions. The analysis is based on quantitative comparisons of the 125 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. Most of the literature on the history of art concludes that artistic developments depend on the patronage of an elite—as noble patrons, as rich donors, or even as affluent bourgeois donors and audiences. Whereas these conclusions imply that class inequalities further the growth of the arts, our empirical findings indicate the opposite. Both lesser inequality and reductions of inequality in a metropolis increase a variety of artistic institutions, and these influences persist when other influences on these institutions are controlled.     

A Comment on Ali Tas˛ıran's `Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and in the United States'

This note reviews and evaluates Taşıran's (1995) claim that estimated female wage effects on Swedish fertility dynamics reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) are not robust to the use of microwage data. The results reported here indicate that once individual wage measures have been purged of measurement error, estimated female wage effects are not sensitive to the introduction of microwages. The results reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) persist even with the use of microwage data. Received: 8 March 1996/Accepted: 4 December 2001 I thank Tom MaCurdy, Eric French and two anonymous referees for useful comments. This research was supported by NICHD grants HD-19226 and HD-28685. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

The Sale of Two Cities: A Semiotic Comparison of Disneyland with Marriott's Great America

Much is revealed through the contrast of two related but divergent forms. In this essay, Elizabeth Mechlingand Jay Mechlingcontrast Disneyland with a later but more loosely themed park, Marriott's Great America in Santa Clara, California. Using the perspectives and methods of semiotics in Louis Marin's Marxist reading, this essay asks, “What are the stories that Disneyland and Marriott's Great America tell?…the ways in which popular culture both teaches and evokes stories that ‘think themselves’ in our minds.” These two parks, though allied in the theme format and rooted in a common bourgeois capitalist culture, are found to promote very different attitudes and values.     

Portfolio analysis in practice

Much has been written about the theory of portfolio management and the consultant's approach to its use. This article describes a practical example of the implementation of the technique by a management without the assistance of external consultants. It shows how the technique was adapted and extended to meet the needs of the company. It further describes how the practical problems encountered during implementation led to the development of a system that provided strategically important data both for staff and operating management in a relatively digestible format.