Private Residential Care for Older Persons: Local Impacts of Care in the Community Reforms in England and Wales

The 1990 National Health Service and Care in the Community Act, implemented in 1993, had as a prime objective the creation of social care markets. Prior to these reforms, private residential homes had enjoyed almost guaranteed state financial support for the care of residents, but since then, residential homes have had to compete amongst each other for a finite number of clientsfunded by limited local budgets. The withdrawal of guaranteed state support and the introduction of a marketplace have had negative impacts on many residential home businesses. Indeed, many homes are facing financial difficulties. This paper considers the actions and attitudes of proprietors under the new conditions, based on a three-stage survey in Devon. The private residential sector illustrates that local social care markets have the potential to produce negative outcomes that are far from ideal and, to some extent, the paper highlights a market failure. As a case study this research also demonstrates the value of undertaking locality-based detailed studies over time to investigatethe impacts of policy change.     

Human resource development in the Asia-Pacific region: Implications for Australia

Educational development has played a role in rapid economic development in East and Southeast Asia. Although serious deficiencies remain in the educational systems of some countries of the region, others are providing a challenge to our educational concepts. Australia faces problems in common with countries of the region, including the need to provide greater equality of educational opportunity to students from disadvantaged backgrounds, and to find the appropriate disciplinary mix in tertiary education. The massive growth of the numbers with secondary and higher education in the region will provide opportunities to market our education, pose issues for Australian immigration policy, and provide both risks and opportunities in building a favourable image of Australia.     

Identifying managerial potential for manpower planning

This article describes the approach of a South African retail store organization to the problems of Manpower Planning, The emphasis is upon the assessment of potential using the Assessment Centre technique.     

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Fitting Spatiotemporal Stochastic Models in Plant Epidemiology

Strategies for controlling plant epidemics are investigated by fitting continuous time spatiotemporal stochastic models to data consisting of maps of disease incidence observed at discrete times. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for fitting two such models to data describing the spread of citrus tristeza virus (CTV) in an orchard. The approach overcomes some of the difficulties encountered when fitting stochastic models to infrequent observations of a continuous process. The results of the analysis cast doubt on the effectiveness of a strategy identified from a previous spatial analysis of the CTV data. Extensions of the approaches to more general models and other problems are also considered.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

An Examination of the Use of Coercion by Assertive Outreach and Community Mental Health Teams in Northern Ireland

In mental health services over recent decades, the positivemove away from hospital-based care to community-based serviceshas entailed that people with higher levels of need are beingsupported by community mental health services. This paper beginsby reviewing the literature on coercion in the field of community-basedmental health care and treatment. It is argued that the lackof a critical understanding of the concept and how it is usedby practitioners and agencies can have serious repercussionsfor the rights of service users. Using a quasi-experimental,longitudinal design, the authors then seek to test some of theideas about coercion by comparing the activities of assertiveoutreach and community mental health teams in Northern Ireland,particularly the key ideas of perceived coercion, workers’strategies and engagement with services. Key findings were thatassertive outreach appeared to be more successful at reducingperceived coercion, minimizing the need for coercive strategies,engaging high-risk clients and reducing inpatient bed use. Thesefindings are compared with other studies in this area. The authorsalso argue that there is a need for greater transparency inthe way that practitioners use coercive measures and more explicitguidance is required in this crucial area of mental health practice.     

Reparameterization of nonlinear statistical models: a case study

The importance of finding appropriate parameterizations for nonlinear statistical models is highlighted. The purpose of this paper is to explore the principles of reparameterization, using an example from real data. It is shown that stable parameterizations allow likelihood-based confidence intervals to be computed. Further, it is noted that the choice of error distribution may seriously affect the estimates and confidence intervals of quantities of interest. The influence of each observation on the estimation of each parameter is displayed for each error model. Multidimensional likelihood contours may be displayed pairwise using profile likelihood computations.     

Population Policy in a Prosperous City‐State: Dilemmas for Singapore

Singapore has achieved one of the highest levels of per capita income in the world, through sound economic planning and a stress on building its human capital. Yet its enviable living conditions are at risk of being enjoyed by fewer citizens, and indeed themselves placed in jeopardy, by the continued very low fertility levels. Ultra‐low fertility and growing reluctance by citizens to accept an increasing share of foreign‐born pose difficult dilemmas for population policy, given the planning scenario of reaching a resident population of 6.5 million. A range of pro‐marriage and pronatalist policies has failed to raise fertility substantially, while past success in modifying population trends and structure through migration has now encountered the twin problems of political constraints on the volume of immigration that is acceptable and a possible increase in emigration of Singapore citizens.     

Southeast Asian urbanization and the growth of mega-urban regions

Southeast Asia has not been sufficiently urbanized long enough to have developed a real urban proletariat, yet it has been profoundly affected by urbanization. An important development has been the emergence of extended metropolitan regions, which now contain about 11 per cent of Southeast Asia’s population. In studying the dynamics of growth of these extended regions, it is important to designate zones around the official metropolitan areas. When this is done for the Southeast Asian mega-urban regions, they are the zones immediately outside the metropolitan area where urban expansion is marked, in-migration greatest, and occupational change most rapid. A corollary of this is that the conclusion frequently drawn that Asian big-city growth is slowing is misleading, because studies usually fail to include the rapidly-growing areas outside metropolitan boundaries. Trends over the 1990–2000 period for Jakarta and Bangkok illustrate the point. Realistic appraisal of the planning needs of Southeast Asia’s mega-urban regions requires integrated research on the broader metropolitan region surrounding the metropolis proper.     

Affective and self-efficacy responses to acute aerobic exercise in sedentary older and younger adults

This study examined the psychological responses to an acute bout of aerobic exercise in sedentary older and younger adults. Eighteen young (mean age 24 years) and 15 older adults (mean age 64 years) completed a 20-min bout of stationary cycling at 65% of VO2peak. Affective responses were assessed before, during, and immediately after exercise. Participants'exercise self-efficacy beliefs were assessed before and immediately after exercise. Both groups reported reduced pleasant feeling states and self-efficacy and increased physical exhaustion in response to acute exercise. Older adults also demonstrated a significant decrease in revitalization during and after cycling. Correlation analyses revealed that self-efficacy was related to feelings of fatigue during exercise and postexercise feelings of energy and fatigue. Both groups reported negative shifts in affect and self-efficacy during and 5 min after cycling.Acute affective and self-efficacy responses might influence one's motivation to adopt and maintain regular physical activity. The relationship between these acute responses and physical activity behavior across the life span warrants future inquiry.