Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.     

The University of Melbourne Social Studies Department

Abstract

This article seeks to explore, from a social justice perspective, as an issue of concern to social work, the manner in which the National Competition Policy has legitimated economic rationalism and its impact upon the community. It is argued under the influence of classical liberalism and economic rationalism, as reflected in the National Competition Policy, the value of individuals is being determined in terms of their contribution to the economy. In so doing notions of fairness, social justice and achieving community wellbeing through the promotion of equality, freedom and autonomy for individuals has been abandoned as governments increasingly allow market forces to structure social relations. Instrumental to the manner in which social relations are being restructured is the role of language which has enabled social justice concepts to be presented in terms of individualism.     

Short notices

Howard M. Gitelman, Workingmen of Waltham: Mobility in American Urban Industrial Development, 1850–1890 (1975), xvi+192 (Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore and London, £5.50).

Michael J. Cullen, The Statistical Movement in Early Victorian Britain. The Foundations of Empirical Social Research (1975), xii+205 (Harvester Press, Hassocks, £7.50).

Raymond Wolters, The New negro on Campus: Black College Rebellions of the 1920s (1975), viii+370 (Princeton University Press, £7.90).

Marie B. Rowlands, Masters and Men in the West Midland Metalware Trades before the Industrial Revolution (1975) x+198 (Manchester University Press, Manchester, £8.00).

Dwight L. Smith (ed.), Afro‐American History: A Bibliography (1974), xvi+856 (ABC Clio Inc., Santa Barbara and Oxford, £22.50).

Hugh Cunningham, The Volunteer Force: a Social and Political History 1859–1908 (1975) 168 (Croom Helm, £6.50).

Leslie Clarkson, Death, Disease and Famine in Pre‐Industrial England (Dublin, 1975), iii+188 (Gill and Macmillan, £8.75).

Arnold J. Bauer, Chilean Rural Society front the Spanish Conquest to 1930 (1975), xviii+265 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £7.90).

R. Kieckhefer, European Witch Trials: Their Foundation in Popular and Learned Culture, 1300–1500 (1976), x+181 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, £5.25).

David Elliston Allen, The Naturalist in Britain: a Social History (1976), xii+292 (Allen Lane, £9.00).

Paul Smith (ed.), The Historian and Film (1976), viii+208 (Cambridge University Press, £4.95).

Katherine S. Naughton, The Geentry of Bedfordshire in the 13th and 14th ceaturies (1976), 90 (Leicester University Press, Leicester, Local History Occ. Papers. 3rd series, No. 2. £3.75).

Thomas J. Archdeacon, New York City, 1664–1710: Conquest and Change (1976), 197 (Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, £6.35).     

Interview Costs in the Secretary Problem

The effect of interview costs on the optimal selection strategy and on the chance of success in secretary problems with order k selection rules, both for a finite number of applicants and in the limiting case, is examined. Probabilistic reasoning is used and numerical examples given.     

Southeast Asia Of The Ninth To Fourteenth Centuries

This review essay of Violence and Vengeance engages with Duncan's view that religious distinctions on their own are rarely the cause of violence, although they may subsequently form its raison d'etre. The review examines how religion assumes a very public space in various Indonesian societies but how the public profession of distinctive religious positions need not stir hostility. However, recent assertions of religious purity and correctness are putting new pressures on community relations, and can be seen as contributing to the severe expressions of violence in North Maluku studied by Duncan. The review questions his call for a truth commission as a necessary precursor to reconciliation, suggesting it may disrupt the strong progress already made towards peace. Instead, it calls for a closer analysis of elite and state roles in provoking or countenancing communal violence.     

Gender Differentiation in Paid and Unpaid Work during the Transition to Parenthood

The transition to parenthood may be especially difficult because relationships need to be largely reorganized to meet demanding new challenges. For scholars interested in gender inequality, the transition to parenthood is a critical time in which gender differentiation is generated by both economic and cultural forces. Although newly married childless couples tend to share both paid and unpaid labor rather equally, when men and women become parents, their patterns become increasingly differentiated by gender. Cultural beliefs that emphasize mothers as the primary parent and fathers as secondary reinforce unequal patterns in housework and childcare. Time availability models, bargaining perspectives, and gender theories all have been used to explain these patterns. Some changes that could help ease the transition to parenthood include expanding US parental leave policies, improving available childcare, adding flexible work policies, and offering more couples‐focused intervention programs. Although much is known about the topic, more research is needed for the literature to reflect the new generation of global and diverse parents.     

On the Average Minimum Size of a Manipulating Coalition

We study the asymptotic average minimum manipulating coalition size as a characteristic of quality of a voting rule and show its serious drawback. We suggest using the asymptotic average threshold coalition size instead. We prove that, in large electorates, the asymptotic average threshold coalition size is maximised among all scoring rules by the Borda rule when the number m of alternatives is 3 or 4, and by -approval voting when m ≥ 5.     

The Effects of Auditory Tact and Auditory Imagining Instructions on the Emergence of Novel Intraverbals

The current research investigated whether intraverbals would emerge following auditory tact instruction. Participants were first taught to tact auditory stimuli by providing the name of the item or animal that produces the sound (e.g., saying “eagle” when presented with the recording of an eagle cawing). Following test probes for simple intraverbals as well as intraverbal categorization participants were taught to tact what each auditory stimulus is (e.g., saying “caw” when presented with the recording of an eagle cawing). Following both tact instructional phases, the effects of an auditory imagining instruction procedure on target intraverbals were examined. Results indicate that following both tact instructional phases, intraverbals increased for three of four participants. Auditory imagining instruction was sufficient for two of four participants to reach mastery criterion, and two of four participants needed some direct instruction. Low covariation between simple intraverbal and categorization was also observed. Functional interdependence between tacts and intraverbals and the possible role of a conditioned hearing response are discussed.