Legacy,Policy, and Circumstance in Fertility Transition

Divergent fertility trends in the course of development are commonly ascribed to differences in state action—that is, to government policy, deliberate or inadvertent. However, fertility outcomes can also, often more persuasively, be traced to differences in cultural and institutional inheritance and in the supply and growth potential of human capital. These are materials that states and societies find themselves endowed with—in brief, their legacy. In reality, legacy and policy are interwoven: policy actions build on some legacy elements and attempt to combat others. And there is a third set of factors influencing fertility outcomes, covering distinctive features of the economic and geopolitical environment and essentially fortuitous events—together termed circumstance. Legacy and circumstance can shrink or shift the policy space, helping to explain past failures in policy achievement. These broad considerations are the basis for a sketch of East Asian/sub‐Saharan African contrasts in fertility transition over the last 50 years. The sketch points to missing avenues of policy action in the African case in seeking to overcome legacy obstacles.     

Confidence Intervals for the Weighted Sum of Two Independent Binomial Proportions

Confidence intervals for the difference of two binomial proportions are well known, however, confidence intervals for the weighted sum of two binomial proportions are less studied. We develop and compare seven methods for constructing confidence intervals for the weighted sum of two independent binomial proportions. The interval estimates are constructed by inverting the Wald test, the score test and the Likelihood ratio test. The weights can be negative, so our results generalize those for the difference between two independent proportions. We provide a numerical study that shows that these confidence intervals based on large‐sample approximations perform very well, even when a relatively small amount of data is available. The intervals based on the inversion of the score test showed the best performance. Finally, we show that as for the difference of two binomial proportions, adding four pseudo‐outcomes to the Wald interval for the weighted sum of two binomial proportions improves its coverage significantly, and we provide a justification for this correction.     

Modeling Interdependent Risks

In an interdependent world the risks faced by any one agent depend not only on its choices but also on those of all others. Expectations about others' choices will influence investments in risk management and the outcome can be suboptimal for everyone. We model this as the Nash equilibrium of a game and give conditions for such a suboptimal equilibrium to be tipped to an optimal one. We also characterize the smallest coalition to tip an equilibrium, the minimum critical coalition, and show that this is also the cheapest critical coalition, so that there is no less expensive way to move the system from the suboptimal to the optimal equilibrium. We illustrate these results by reference to airline security and the control of infectious diseases via vaccination.     

Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.     

The University of Melbourne Social Studies Department

Abstract

This article seeks to explore, from a social justice perspective, as an issue of concern to social work, the manner in which the National Competition Policy has legitimated economic rationalism and its impact upon the community. It is argued under the influence of classical liberalism and economic rationalism, as reflected in the National Competition Policy, the value of individuals is being determined in terms of their contribution to the economy. In so doing notions of fairness, social justice and achieving community wellbeing through the promotion of equality, freedom and autonomy for individuals has been abandoned as governments increasingly allow market forces to structure social relations. Instrumental to the manner in which social relations are being restructured is the role of language which has enabled social justice concepts to be presented in terms of individualism.     

Short notices

Howard M. Gitelman, Workingmen of Waltham: Mobility in American Urban Industrial Development, 1850–1890 (1975), xvi+192 (Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore and London, £5.50).

Michael J. Cullen, The Statistical Movement in Early Victorian Britain. The Foundations of Empirical Social Research (1975), xii+205 (Harvester Press, Hassocks, £7.50).

Raymond Wolters, The New negro on Campus: Black College Rebellions of the 1920s (1975), viii+370 (Princeton University Press, £7.90).

Marie B. Rowlands, Masters and Men in the West Midland Metalware Trades before the Industrial Revolution (1975) x+198 (Manchester University Press, Manchester, £8.00).

Dwight L. Smith (ed.), Afro‐American History: A Bibliography (1974), xvi+856 (ABC Clio Inc., Santa Barbara and Oxford, £22.50).

Hugh Cunningham, The Volunteer Force: a Social and Political History 1859–1908 (1975) 168 (Croom Helm, £6.50).

Leslie Clarkson, Death, Disease and Famine in Pre‐Industrial England (Dublin, 1975), iii+188 (Gill and Macmillan, £8.75).

Arnold J. Bauer, Chilean Rural Society front the Spanish Conquest to 1930 (1975), xviii+265 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £7.90).

R. Kieckhefer, European Witch Trials: Their Foundation in Popular and Learned Culture, 1300–1500 (1976), x+181 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, £5.25).

David Elliston Allen, The Naturalist in Britain: a Social History (1976), xii+292 (Allen Lane, £9.00).

Paul Smith (ed.), The Historian and Film (1976), viii+208 (Cambridge University Press, £4.95).

Katherine S. Naughton, The Geentry of Bedfordshire in the 13th and 14th ceaturies (1976), 90 (Leicester University Press, Leicester, Local History Occ. Papers. 3rd series, No. 2. £3.75).

Thomas J. Archdeacon, New York City, 1664–1710: Conquest and Change (1976), 197 (Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, £6.35).