Estimators for a Poisson parameter using ranked set sampling

Using ranked set sampling, a viable BLUE estimator is obtained for estimating the mean of a Poisson distribution. Its properties, such as efficiency relative to the ranked set sample mean and to the maximum likelihood estimator, have been calculated for different sample sizes and values of the Poisson parameter. The estimator (termed the normal modified r.s.s. estimator is more efficient than both the ranked set sample mean and the MLE. It is recommended as a reasonable estimator of the Poisson mean ( λ) to be used in a ranked set sampling environment.     

Quality of Parenting as Mediator of the Effect of Childhood Defiance on Adolescent Friendship Choices and Delinquency: A Growth Curve Analysis

Social scientists agree that childhood antisocial behavior portends adolescent delinquency, but there is little agreement regarding the theoretical processes that account for this behavioral continuity. Latent growth curve modeling was used to test latent trait and social influence explanations for this association. The analyses used data collected annually over a 4‐year period from a sample of 149 boys, 157 girls, and their parents. Contrary to latent trait theories, we found no direct association between oppositional/defiant behavior during childhood and a trajectory of increasing involvement with deviant peers and delinquency during adolescence. Rather, early oppositional/defiant behavior undermined effective parenting practices. The latter, in turn, predicted an increasing affiliation with deviant peers and delinquency during adolescence. Improvements in parenting during adolescence decreased delinquency indirectly by reducing affiliation with deviant peers. Overall, the results support a life course development model in which difficult behavior during childhood increases the probability of adolescent deviant behavior because of its disruptive effect on quality of parenting.     

Family Influences on the Social Participation of Youth: The Effects of Parental Social Involvement and Farming

Abstract Parents shape children's social choices through their social and economic actions. Parental social participation connects children to a civic culture and encourages involvement in civic groups. Parents' ties to farming in farm‐dependent communities further enhance children's civic orientations by providing added opportunities and incentives for social participation. Data from the Iowa Youth and Families Project confirm these hypotheses, showing that the children of farmers and of rural leaders are more likely to participate in civic groups. These results establish parental social involvement as a source of social capital and demonstrate the importance of farm influences for understanding the social involvement of youth in rural society.     

Humanitarianism with a Sovereign Face: UNHCR in the Global Undertow

This article examines the global forces that are responsible for the transformation of the meaning and practice of UNHCR's humanitarianism, and asks whether a transformation that enables the organization to become more deeply involved in the internal affairs of states is welcome or worrisome. I open by reviewing the changing relationship between multilateralism, sovereignty, and humanitarianism, and link that conceptual discussion to the international refugee regime. I then argue that the combination of state pressures and the normative principle of popular sovereignty enabled a more political and pragmatic UNHCR to widen its activities under the humanitarian banner and to become more deeply involved in the circumstances in the refugee‐producing country. This expanding humanitarian umbrella, I suggest, might be a stealth agent for a policy of containment and a threat to refugee rights. This possibility is suggested by recent debates over the category of internally displaced peoples; the decided preference for repatriation; and UNHCR's involvement in reintegration activities. These developments generate the worrisome possibility that a more pragmatic UNHCR is potentially (though unwittingly) implicated in a system of containment. I conclude by reflecting on UNHCR's role in global politics and the dangers of a sovereignty‐led humanitarianism.     

Couples Managing the Risk of Financing Long-Term Care

This study examined the complexity of financial long-term care (LTC) decision outcomes among married couples. Supporting the theory of planned behavior, couples reported a range of consensus patterns with their financial LTC intentions and behaviors. Five newly articulated typologies of couples emerged from consensus patterns revealing that couples reported a range of financial LTC intentions and behaviors. More couples reported consensus with their financial LTC behaviors compared to intentions; financial LTC decision outcomes reflected a dynamic and on-going process; and couples were not always in agreement on their financial LTC decision outcomes. Findings reinforce the importance of family practitioners going beyond working with individuals to understanding couple-level planning for financing LTC.     

Technological newness: An empirical study in the process industries

Technological change in product development is a crucial issue in the management of technology. The entire sweep of technological changes over the past hundred of years is, in essence, the sum of thousands of individual product development projects in thousands of firms. Yet the degree of technological change in individual development projects has not been extensively studied. This paper presents a four-dimensional characterization of technological newness for product development projects in the process industries in which product development is closely tied to process innovation. The characterization uses four dimensions of change that are required in the development of new products: chemistry, production equipment, fabrication technology and process control. Based on the framework of technological newness, the paper presents data collected on the degree of process change in a set of 20 product development projects conducted by a large manufacturer of advanced polymers. The data provide a clear demonstration of the value of the measurement framework, showing a strong relationship between the characterization of change and the project performance.     

Personal Network Characteristics as Predictors of Change in Obesity Risk Behaviors in Early Adolescence

The potential for peers to influence obesity risk behavior increases in adolescence, yet there are knowledge gaps of how behaviors are modified in response to peers over time. This study examined how personal friendship network characteristics were associated with obesity‐related behaviors from late childhood to early adolescence. Two waves of friendship, physical activity, screen time, and dietary recall data were collected from 11‐ to 13‐year‐old students (99% retention) in Australia (n = 308) over a five‐ to eight‐month period. Regression models identified friendship network characteristics that predicted later health behaviors which varied by gender and behavior type, such as the number of friends positively associated with physical activity intensity (males) and screen time (females). The need for considering context to influence behavior change is discussed.     

All The Same? On a Certain Pattern in Cross-National Death Risk

This article considers whether a nation that fares relatively well (or badly) on a particular dimension of mortality risk tends also to do so on others. Working with 2016 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we focus on six causes of premature death: transport accidents, other accidents, homicide, early-childhood diseases, and both communicable and noncommunicable diseases beyond early childhood. We consider data from all 26 nations that had populations of at least 50 million in 2016, as well as 15 clusters of smaller nations that are similar in longevity (e.g., Scandinavia). We use an analytic method that facilitates useful comparisons across nations, for it recognizes that some potential death risks can be underestimated because citizens die sooner from other causes. We estimate reductions in lifespan from each of the six causes relative to natural lifespan as defined by GBD. It emerges that, for all 15 pairings among the six causes, these reductions are positively correlated. We introduce metrics to summarize a nation's overall “safety status,” and find that losses of longevity because of premature deaths are nearly three decades fewer in the safest countries than in the least safe ones. Turning to possible explanations for the cross-national differences, we find a strong association between a nation's safety status and both its economic wherewithal as indicated by the 2016 GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power parity) and its income inequality as reflected by its Gini coefficient.