Individual-level modeling of the spread of influenza within households

A class of individual-level models (ILMs) outlined by R. Deardon et al., [Inference for individual level models of infectious diseases in large populations, Statist. Sin. 20 (2010), pp. 239–261] can be used to model the spread of infectious diseases in discrete time. The key feature of these ILMs is that they take into account covariate information on susceptible and infectious individuals as well as shared covariate information such as geography or contact measures. Here, such ILMs are fitted in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to data sets from two studies on influenza transmission within households in Hong Kong during 2008 to 2009 and 2009 to 2010. The focus of this paper is to estimate the effect of vaccination on infection risk and choose a model that best fits the infection data.     

Probability perceptions and preventive health care

We study the effect of perceptions in comparison with more objective measures of risk on individuals’ decisions to decline or accept risk reducing interventions such as flu shots, mammograms, and aspirin for the prevention of heart disease. In particular, we elicit individuals’ subjective probabilities of risk, with and without the interventions, and compare these perceptions to individually predicted risk based on epidemiological models. Respondents, especially women, appear to be aware of some of the qualitative relationships between risk factors and probabilities. However, on average they have very poor perceptions of the absolute probability levels as reported in the epidemiological literature. Perceptions of the level of risk are less accurate if a respondent is female and has poor numeracy skills. We find that perceived probabilities significantly affect the subsequent take-up rate of flu shots, mammograms, and aspirin, even after controlling for individually predicted risk using epidemiological models.     

Do Immigrant Minority Parents Have More Consistent College Aspirations for Their Children?*

Objective. Educational aspirations are an important predictor of eventual attainment. We examine if immigrant parents have higher aspirations for their children compared to native‐born parents and whether they are more likely to maintain high aspirations over time. Methods. Using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study‐Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS‐K), we document differences in the formation and maintenance of white, black, Hispanic, and Asian parents' college aspirations for their children between kindergarten, third, and fifth grades. We also examine the role of acculturation in the stability of immigrant parents' aspirations. Results. We find that immigrant parents are more optimistic about their children's educational trajectories than are native‐born parents and that over time they are more likely to maintain consistently high aspirations for their children. Conclusion. Immigrant parents do not see their children's future as downwardly mobile, and instead remain optimistic, consistently reinforcing messages about college plans throughout childhood.     

Enhancing the Social Relevance of Evaluation Practice

We argue that the social relevance of evaluation research is dependent upon two issues: the extent which evaluation practice reflects the values underlying social policies and the political reality of the policy implementation process. The evaluation of community based residential services should, therefore, reflect those values implicit in the formulation and implementation of the policy of 'deinstitutionalisation'.

Evaluation strategies are outlined that focus upon: (1) evaluating the extent to which the residential environment reflects the values of the surrounding culture, (2) quantifying the extent to which service users are actually living in the 'community', and (3) assessing outcomes significant to the quality of life of service users.     

Enhancing parent-child interaction during foster care visits: experimental assessment of an intervention

Mothers of young children recently placed in foster care participated in an intervention to enhance parent-child interaction during visits. The mothers all reported substantial loss and trauma histories. Immediately prior to the visits, the mothers were coached on strategies for separating from their children at the visit's end. The mothers displayed more behavioral strategies for supporting their children when the visit was over, but were less engaged with their children during the leave-taking sequence and displayed fewer ways of maintaining the child's involvement in mother-child interaction during leave-taking than those in a comparison group. This article discusses consideration of parents' trauma history in designing interventions to enhance parent-child interaction.     

Comparing mortality estimates based on different administrative records

This study investigates how age and race are reported in interviews and on death certificates and how these demographic assignments affect life expectancy estimates for the total population, for males and females, and for blacks and whites. Differential reporting of demographic characteristics can produce different estimated life expectancies and thus differential assessments of the sex and race gaps in life expectancy. This difference underscores the need to define demographic characteristics carefully and to examine multivariate models and projections cautiously.     

Does Higher Socioeconomic Status Increase Contact Between Minorities and Whites? An Examination of Interracial Romantic Relationships Among Adolescents*

Objectives. We examine how socioeconomic status of white, black, Hispanic, and Asian adolescents affects their likelihood of dating across racial lines and the racial characteristics of their romantic partners. Methods. We analyze data nationally representative sample of adolescents in 1994–1995 using logistic regression models. Results. Socioeconomic status has little effect on whether adolescents choose an interracial partner except in the case of Hispanics. However, higher socioeconomic status blacks and Asians who interracially date are more likely to have white partners than their SES counterparts. Conclusion. Although social class does not increase the odds of interracial contact, it does increase contact with whites compared to other groups for blacks and Asians.