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81.
    
Population-level proportions of individuals that fall at different points in the spectrum [of disease severity], from asymptomatic infection to severe disease, are often difficult to observe, but estimating these quantities can provide information about the nature and severity of the disease in a particular population. Logistic and multinomial regression techniques are often applied to infectious disease modeling of large populations and are suited to identifying variables associated with a particular disease or disease state. However, they are less appropriate for estimating infection state prevalence over time because they do not naturally accommodate known disease dynamics like duration of time an individual is infectious, heterogeneity in the risk of acquiring infection, and patterns of seasonality. We propose a Bayesian compartmental model to estimate latent infection state prevalence over time that easily incorporates known disease dynamics. We demonstrate how and why a stochastic compartmental model is a better approach for determining infection state proportions than multinomial regression is by using a novel method for estimating Bayes factors for models with high-dimensional parameter spaces. We provide an example using visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil and present an empirically-adjusted reproductive number for the infection.  相似文献   
82.
83.
Cet article, une analyse du passage d'Elizabeth I avant son couronnement, cherche à adopter et à critiquer la métaphore comparant la politique au théâtre, telle que récemment utilisée par Geertz et autres spécialistes du symbolisme politique. Je veux montrer ici où et comment le passage pré-couronnement devient plus compréhensible, grâce à cette métaphore, mais aussi où celle-ci obscurcit sa signification. Je suggère, sur cette base, que la valeur analytique de la métaphore est améliorée quand la notion de 'répétition' prend le pas sur celle de 'représentation' (anthropologie symbolique, symbolisme politique, réciprocité, anthropologie historique).
This paper, a treatment of the pre-coronation passage of Elizabeth i, seeks to adopt and to criticize the 'politics as theatre' metaphor recently used by Geertz and other students of the symbolism of political affairs. I seek to show where and how the pre-coronation passage is illuminated by this metaphor, and where its significance is made obscure. It is suggested, on this basis, that the metaphor is improved as an analytic device when the notion of 'rehearsal' is emphasized over that of 'performance.'  相似文献   
84.
Le thème de ce numéro spécial nous a fourni l'occasion d'engager une conversation avec James Turk, sociologue et directeur général de l'Association canadienne des professeures et professeurs d'université (ACPPU). L'entretien eut lieu a Ottawa en décembre 2001 et quelques precisions ont été apportées en avril 2002.
The special theme of this issue afforded us an opportunity to engage with Dr. James Turk, a sociologist who is currently the executive director of the Canadian Association of University Teachers (CAUT). This conversation was held in Ottawa in December 2001, with additional follow-up in April 2002.  相似文献   
85.
Bale, J. 2003 Sports Geography London : Routledge 196 pp. £ 21.99
Eitzen, S. 2003 Fair and Foul: Beyond the Myths and Paradoxes of Sport Oxford : Rowan & Littlefield Publishers 187 pp. £ 17.95
Hill, J. 2002 Sport, Leisure & Culture in Twentieth Century Britain Basingstoke , Palgrave 232 pp. £ 15.99
Houlihan, B. 2003 Sport & Society, A Student Introduction London : Sage Publications 379 pp. £ 19.99
Sugden, J. and Tomlinson, A. 2002 Power Games: A Critical Sociology of Sport London : Routledge 304 pp. £ 21.99  相似文献   
86.
This paper examines emergent issues of 'context' raised by the application of information and communication technologies for people with cognitive impairment. The issue of the development and application of cognitive prostheses for this group provides an opportunity to examine assumptions and issues emerging from this area pertaining to understandings of the term 'context' in these applications. In this sense the paper takes these assumptions and issues as a point of departure for the development of a 'problematic' that can contribute to the study of the experience of cognitive impairment. The paper specifically addresses recent concerns about the lack of knowledge of these experiences in public spaces such as shopping centres, given that this is a critical site for the civic participation of this group. We argue that this participation should be understood in terms of the 'meeting of two histories': the history of contemporary requirements governing participation in public space and the habitus of people with cognitive impairment with regard to this participation. The paper proposes that the salience of cognitive impairment in these spaces turns on what it means for individuals to inhabit them as complex 'Container Technologies' (Sofia) and underlines the importance of understanding their efforts to attain a sense of normality (Goffman) in these contexts. We propose that this approach can inform research contributing to the development of a 'pattern language', informing applications that make cognition a system property in networks that operate between humans, machines and their contexts.  相似文献   
87.
A model plan is presented for adolescent services that would facilitate the current trend to shift troubled but nondelinquent youngsters from the juvenile justice system into the child welfare system.  相似文献   
88.
The Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale adapted for Pathological Gambling (PG-YBOCS) was developed to measure the severity and change in severity of pathological gambling symptoms. The PG-YBOCS is a 10-item clinician-administered questionnaire that measures the severity of PG over a recent time interval (usually within the past one/two week(s)). In order to assess and validate the scale, it was administered to 337 subjects: 188 pathological gamblers and 149 healthy controls. Internal consistency and correlations between individual items and total score were assessed for various permutations of the sample. Other scales were administered to assess convergent, discriminant and content validity. Sensitivity to change was evaluated in treatment studies with fluovoxamine, lithium, and valproate. Each item was frequently endorsed across a range of severity. Good inter-rater reliability and internal consistency were obtained. The PG-YBOCS showed high validity and reliability for total score, item-total correlations, and for each subscale (Thoughts/Urges and Behavior). PG-YBOCS scores correlated with global severity and South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) scores. The scale was also sensitive to change in pathological gambling severity. PG-YBOCS thus appears to be a reliable and valid measure of pathological gambling severity, and can be regarded as an important tool for clinicians and researchers treating pathological gamblers.  相似文献   
89.
The New Deal for Lone Parents is one policy in the UK which aims to reduce benefit dependency and enable lone parents to opt into a scheme which offers help and advice on jobs, benefits, training and childcare with the hope of improving job readiness. In tandem with this scheme there exists a myriad of community intervention initiatives whose aim may not be as explicit, but whose value can be equally empowering in raising self-awareness and self-esteem. This study examines the experiences of lone parents who participate in such schemes and contrasts this with the experiences of those who do not. The study shows that community-based schemes may not offer the best option for all lone mothers, but can provide an effective staging post for some towards a position of job readiness.

Poverty and social exclusion affect many different aspects of people's lives. They exist when people are denied opportunities to work, to learn, to live healthy, active and fulfilling lives …

Department of Social Security, September 1999, p. 3  相似文献   

90.
Grant  Simon  Kajii  Atsushi  Polak  Ben 《Theory and Decision》2000,48(3):263-286
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a dynamically consistent agent always to prefer more informative signals (in single-agent problems). These conditions do not imply recursivity, reduction or independence. We provide a simple definition of dynamically consistent behavior, and we discuss whether an intrinsic information lover (say, an anxious person) is likely to be dynamically consistent.  相似文献   
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