最优财政分权与中国经济增长

基于最优财政分权模型对财政分权与经济增长关系的比较静态分析发现,财政分权与经济增长之间不是简单的线性关系,存在着使经济增长最大化的最优财政分权水平;最优财政分权水平与地方政府支出的生产效率正相关,与中央政府支出的生产效率负相关.对中国1982-2004年的实证检验发现,中国的财政分权已经超过最优比例,阻碍了中国经济的增长.未来中国财政体制改革的关键是提高地方政府支出的生产效率,适当降低分权水平,实现最优分权,促进经济最优增长.     

Estimating Individual-Level Risk in Spatial Epidemiology Using Spatially Aggregated Information on the Population at Risk

We propose a novel alternative to case-control sampling for the estimation of individual-level risk in spatial epidemiology. Our approach uses weighted estimating equations to estimate regression parameters in the intensity function of an inhomogeneous spatial point process, when information on risk-factors is available at the individual level for cases, but only at a spatially aggregated level for the population at risk. We develop data-driven methods to select the weights used in the estimating equations and show through simulation that the choice of weights can have a major impact on efficiency of estimation. We develop a formal test to detect non-Poisson behavior in the underlying point process and assess the performance of the test using simulations of Poisson and Poisson cluster point processes. We apply our methods to data on the spatial distribution of childhood meningococcal disease cases in Merseyside, U.K. between 1981 and 2007.     

Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

邓小平社会主义动力学说的理论创新

邓小平社会主义动力学说的立足点是中国社会现实国情，方向是鲜明的社会主义现代化目标，主体包含关系动力、运筹动力、落差动力、精神动力的相互作用。创新是邓小平社会主义动力学说的本质特征和核心，强调制度创新是社会主义发展的动力源，科技创新是发展的技术动力源，社会主义理论创新则是各种创新活动和成果的基础。     

我国开设股票指数期货交易的探讨

近年来,我国股票证券市场有了长足的发展,具备了开展股票指数期货交易的可能性和必要性.为了股票指数期货市场的建立,目前急需修改<证券法>相关法规,选择交易场所,重新编制指数,确定合约面值、合约期限和最小报价单位,设定保证金水平,加强对股票指数期货市场的监管.     

我国农村公共物品配置制度的实证分析

新制度经济学认为,制度非均衡是制度变迁的前提条件。通过对我国农村公共物品配置制度历史演进过程的理论梳理发现,现行的农村公共物品配置处于一种非均衡的态势,进而解析了引致其无效率的机制原因,并提出了我国农村公共物品配置制度创新的目标模式。     

试论盆周山区苗族的传统文化及其特点

四川省、重庆市的苗族，具有悠久的历史和源远流长的文化。他们的文化与大溪文化和屈家岭文化有密切关系。传说中的“三苗”和“盘瓠”部落及巴氏建立的廪君国都有苗族先民活动的踪迹。苗族人民的文化有独特的内涵，他们住“吊脚楼”、善酿酒、崇拜祖先，重视亲族，保留有古老的多种崇拜及丰富多彩的婚丧习俗……苗族文化是中华文化中的一朵奇葩     

由价值体系的变更谈哲学概念的重新界定

哲学是有着二千六百多年历史的学科。但是，迄今为止没有一个统一公认的哲学概念。在和谐价值体系建构的当代，对哲学概念的界定应从时代价值体系变更的过程当中来寻找，认为哲学的概念应该是实践主体在追求与选择价值体系中的动态思维过程，是人类研究现时存在的根源及发展问题的动态性思维表现。     

Clustering and combinatorial optimization in recursive supervised learning

The use of combinations of weak learners to learn a dataset has been shown to be better than the use of a single strong learner. In fact, the idea is so successful that boosting, an algorithm combining several weak learners for supervised learning, has been considered to be the best off the shelf classifier. However, some problems still exist, including determining the optimal number of weak learners and the over fitting of data. In an earlier work, we developed the RPHP algorithm which solves both these problems by using a combination of global search, weak learning and pattern distribution. In this chapter, we revise the global search component by replacing it with a cluster based combinatorial optimization. Patterns are clustered according to the output space of the problem, i.e., natural clusters are formed based on patterns belonging to each class. A combinatorial optimization problem is therefore created, which is solved using evolutionary algorithms. The evolutionary algorithms identify the “easy” and the “difficult” clusters in the system. The removal of the easy patterns then gives way to the focused learning of the more complicated patterns. The problem therefore becomes recursively simpler. Over fitting is overcome by using a set of validation patterns along with a pattern distributor. An algorithm is also proposed to use the pattern distributor to determine the optimal number of recursions and hence the optimal number of weak learners for the problem. Empirical studies show generally good performance when compared to other state of the art methods.