A Bayesian view of assessing uncertainty and comparing expert opinion

A Bayesian approach to the problem of comparing experts or expert systems is presented. The question of who is an expert is considered and comparisons among well-calibrated experts are studied. The concept of refinement, in various equivalent forms, is used in this study. An informative example of the combination of the opinions of well-calibrated experts is described. Total orderings of the class of well-calibrated experts are derived from strictly proper scoring rules.     

交通信息条件下道路和停车选择SUE模型及算法

考虑交通信息系统(advanced traveler information system,ATIS)对出行者道路和停车选择行为的影响,并将出行者分成两类:一类出行者使用ATIS,另一类不使用ATIS.在此基础上,构造了一个基于概率的随机用户均衡模型来描述ATIS条件下的道路和停车选择问题,并给出了相应的求解算法.最后,通过一个算例分析了模型及算法的使用效果.     

Optimum stratification with two variates

For the 2×2 rectilinear stratification of a bivariate normal distribution with proportional and optimum allocation the dependence of the objective function z(x₁;y₁) on the coefficient of correlation ρ and the sampling fraction q=n/N is investigated. With proportional allocation for great values of ρ (but already for q=0) a so-called ρ-effect arises, which results in a saddle-point of z as “optimum” stratification point in the center of gravity of the distribution and two additional minima. With optimum allocation first for smaller values of q also the ρ-effect arises; for grater values of q a so-called q-effect is superposed, which results in a multitude of minima, saddle-points and maxima of z. All these points satisfy the generalized conditions of Dalenius, but for practical use only the global minimum is of interest.     

《林四娘》故事源流补考

林四娘的故事在康熙年间盛传一时,新发现的陈奕禧作品《林四娘小传》与蒲松龄、王士棋、李澄中等山东作家的记载相比,差距较大,与林云铭记述的故事更接近。若想了解这个有关青州衡王府宫人故事的文化背景,应该关注与她的名字密切联系的陈宝钥。陈宝钥是福建晋江人,曾参加了南明抗清斗争,又是一位多产的诗人。林四娘应该是陈宝钥部署的代言人,陈宝钥用自己和林四娘的唱和来抒发他的亡国之思。     

Population policies in advanced societies: Pronatalist and migration strategies

This paper discusses pronatalist and migration policies that have been introduced in selected European countries. Measures and objectives are briefly described before an evaluation of the efficacy of each is provided. The case studies chosen show that pronatalist policies have had limited effects. Migration policies seem to have been more effective, although their aims so far have been largely non-demographic. Migration strategies will increasingly have to be considered for demographic reasons in the future, to counterbalance population decline. Both pronatalist and migration strategies tend to conflict with other policies (social and economic policies, emancipation or housing policies), and to be in competition with the demands of an ageing society. Limits to the development or expansion of either strategy are spelled out. Finally a few untried mechanisms are mentioned.     

Gender and the 'New Paradigm' of Health

This article provides a critical review of literature on the relationship between gender and the 'new paradigm' of health. An overview of the feminist critique of health is given, from the Women's Health Movement of the late 1960s and early feminist debates about medicalisation, to more recent discussions about structural inequalities between men and women, eating disorders, and AIDS. I then go on to explore the feminist response to the so-called 'new paradigm' of health (an approach that emphasises health promotion, individual responsibility for health, and body-monitoring). Arguments that health promotion initiatives target women and confirm their position as principal guardians of health within the family are considered, as well as literature on the breast cancer awareness campaign. I then explore the growing body of literature on masculinity and health, and its account of the relationship between gender and current ideas about healthiness. Finally, I offer up some suggestions for the direction a new feminist critique of health might take.     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

Sicherheitsäquivalente zur risikoadjustierten Bewertung: Unternehmensexterne Bewertungssicht vs. unternehmensinterne Steuerungssicht Replik zu den Anmerkungen „Zum Verhältnis von Wertadditivität bei Sicherheitsäquivalenten und Risikoanalyse“ von <Emphasis Type=Italic>Reichling et al.</Emphasis> (2008)

Die Forderung nach schwacher Wertadditivit?t von Sicherheits?quivalenten ist in Abh?ngigkeit des jeweiligen Bewertungszwecks zu diskutieren. W?hrend in der unternehmensexternen Bewertungssicht, z.B. bei der Unternehmensbewertung, die Forderung nach schwacher Wertadditivit?t gut begründbar ist, stellt sie im Bereich der unternehmensinternen Steuerungssicht eine „Nice to have“-Anforderung dar. Darüber hinaus werden in der bisherigen Literatur zur Anwendbarkeit von Sicherheits?quivalenten die Kernherausforderungen der unternehmensinternen Steuerung vernachl?ssigt. Insbesondere die ad?quate Berücksichtigung stochastischer Abh?ngigkeiten im Portfolioverbund bei der Bewertung von Einzelgesch?ften mittels Sicherheits?quivalenten stellt eine Forschungslücke dar.     

Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.