A Bayesian view of assessing uncertainty and comparing expert opinion

A Bayesian approach to the problem of comparing experts or expert systems is presented. The question of who is an expert is considered and comparisons among well-calibrated experts are studied. The concept of refinement, in various equivalent forms, is used in this study. An informative example of the combination of the opinions of well-calibrated experts is described. Total orderings of the class of well-calibrated experts are derived from strictly proper scoring rules.     

The australian workplace industrial relations survey and comparative industrial relations: Canadian reflections

This paper provides an overview of the recently publishedAustralian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (AWIRS). It argues that the socio-economic and political agenda in Australia regarding labor market de-regulation and industrial relations reform, the context of the AWIRS, provides an opportunity to construct fruitful industrial relations comparative analysis between Canada and Australia. This is seen as a broadening of the traditional if not habitual comparisons between Canada and the U.S. Finally, the author calls for a similar nationally constructed workplace survey to be conducted in Canada.     

Learning about radon's risk

This article reports the results of an evaluation of the effectiveness of different types of information materials in communicating the risk from exposure to radon, a naturally occurring indoor air pollutant. The study involved a panel of 2300 homeowners who actually experienced risks from radon, and the information program used to explain these risks. The analysis considered information transfer and performance on specific tasks requiring information on the risk from radon to measure learning. The results suggest a systematic learning process, but indicate that the process can be influenced by how risk information is presented.     

An Analysis of Damage to U.S. Soybean Yields from 1982 Acid Deposition Levels

Experimental data were compiled for seven soybean varieties studied at four different locations in the U.S. for a period of one to three years. Three dose–response functions (linear, quadratic, and Weibull) were fitted, as appropriate, to the experimental data. Effects of acid deposition on soybean yields were estimated by combining variety-specific dose–response and production data. These calculations suggest that U.S. soybean production (2.2 billion bushels in 1982) would increase by 3.2 million bushels with a 10% reduction in 1982 hydrogen ion concentration levels in all counties where soybeans were grown, and by almost 70 million bushels with uniform improvement to pH 5.2. These estimates are based on many simplifying assumptions and are subject to several important sources of uncertainty explored in this study. The calculated changes are small in comparison with effects from other natural and anthropogenic stresses.     

Scrambled randomized response methods for obtaining sensitive quantitative data

We study a multiplicative randomized response method for obtaining responses to sensitive questions when the answers are quantitative. The method involves the respondent multiplying his sensitive answer by a random number from a known distribution, and giving the product to the interviewer, who does not know the value of the random number and thus receives a scrambled response. Some particular distributions for the random scrambling number are proposed and studied, and ways of generating the scrambling numbers are discussed. Some modifications for increasing the efficiency of the method are proposed, and numerical results are given that show the scrambled response method is generally superior to the previously used method of randomizing questions.     

Some economic effects of the California agricultural labor relations act

The California Agricultural Labor Relations Act (CALRA) evolved in the 1970s because the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) excluded agricultural workers. CALRA effectively placed the United Farm Workers Union in a stronger bargaining position vis-a-vis farmers than the NLRA had done for industrial unions vis-a-vis nonfarm business firms. Society has suffered a net economic loss from CALRA and the events preceding its enactment. Since passage of the act, at least three effects have been verified: Relative to conditions that would otherwise have been expected to exist, consumers are facing higher prices; agricultural workers are earning lower wages; and landowners have suffered losses in land values.     

The decision to add a second system producer

Typically in the United States only one contractor (the developer or first producer) makes a weapon system because it is too expensive or for some other reason infeasible to develop a second source. Congress and higher headquarters are constantly challenging the Armed Services to add other sources who can competitively make their systems. This paper describes a method of analyzing this complex problem which often has very large monetary and other significant impacts. Procedures and a case study are presented which consider cost and other criteria which might be used to make the second source decision.