Inference in Semi‐Parametric Dynamic Models for Repeated Count Data

This paper deals with a longitudinal semi‐parametric regression model in a generalised linear model setup for repeated count data collected from a large number of independent individuals. To accommodate the longitudinal correlations, we consider a dynamic model for repeated counts which has decaying auto‐correlations as the time lag increases between the repeated responses. The semi‐parametric regression function involved in the model contains a specified regression function in some suitable time‐dependent covariates and a non‐parametric function in some other time‐dependent covariates. As far as the inference is concerned, because the non‐parametric function is of secondary interest, we estimate this function consistently using the independence assumption‐based well‐known quasi‐likelihood approach. Next, the proposed longitudinal correlation structure and the estimate of the non‐parametric function are used to develop a semi‐parametric generalised quasi‐likelihood approach for consistent and efficient estimation of the regression effects in the parametric regression function. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimation approach is examined through an intensive simulation study based on both large and small samples. Both balanced and unbalanced cluster sizes are incorporated in the simulation study. The asymptotic performances of the estimators are given. The estimation methodology is illustrated by reanalysing the well‐known health care utilisation data consisting of counts of yearly visits to a physician by 180 individuals for four years and several important primary and secondary covariates.     

新媒体对大学生价值观形成的影响及其引导研究

阐述了在新媒体日益壮大的媒介环境下,虽然新媒体的应用与普及为大学生群体的学习和生活提供了诸多便利,但是其对于大学生群体价值观的构建无疑是把"双刃剑"。在分析新媒体及其媒介传播特征的基础上,结合大学生群体的价值观形成特点以及新媒体对大学生群体价值观教育的影响,提出了高校应该利用新媒体传播优势,对大学生群体主流价值观的构建进行有效的引导。     

Subgroup Analysis with Time‐to‐Event Data Under a Logistic‐Cox Mixture Model

Subgroup detection has received increasing attention recently in different fields such as clinical trials, public management and market segmentation analysis. In these fields, people often face time‐to‐event data, which are commonly subject to right censoring. This paper proposes a semiparametric Logistic‐Cox mixture model for subgroup analysis when the interested outcome is event time with right censoring. The proposed method mainly consists of a likelihood ratio‐based testing procedure for testing the existence of subgroups. The expectation–maximization iteration is applied to improve the testing power, and a model‐based bootstrap approach is developed to implement the testing procedure. When there exist subgroups, one can also use the proposed model to estimate the subgroup effect and construct predictive scores for the subgroup membership. The large sample properties of the proposed method are studied. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed by simulation studies. A real data example is also provided for illustration.     

船舶反弯扭螺旋桨水力特性的数值模拟与分析

运用计算流体力学方法(CFD)对船舶反弯扭螺旋桨的水力特性进行数值模拟计算,获得了螺旋桨的推力系数、扭矩系数及敞水效率等水力特性参数,与试验结果进行了比较,两者吻合良好.模拟计算提供了详细的三维流场分布,可对反弯扭桨叶的工作特性和叶梢涡、尾涡及气蚀的分布状态进行深入的分析.在叶面邻近区域采用层叠式的半结构网格以适应边界层的计算要求,在边界层外的流动区域采用非结构网格,取得了较高的计算精度.     

中国传统诚信思想的源流及其特点

本文主要对先秦儒、道、墨、法四家的思想家关于“诚”、“信”及“诚信”的论述进行统计、分析,进一步概括出他们论述的主要特点,以加深对传统诚信思想的认识。     

广东新生代民工荒的根源与对策

新生代农民工是当前社会发展中新出现的阶层。如何解决新生代农民工“民工荒”问题,是一个现实迫切的社会问题。本文分析了新生代农民工的特点,剖析了广东省新生代民工荒的现状与根源,在此基础上提出了相应的治理建议。     

《人间词话》"气象"说探析

“气象”是《人间词话》中的重要概念,它与“境界”关系密切,对它的理解将直接关系到对“境界”的评价。本文追溯了《人间词话》气象说的传统文论渊源,从生命关怀、个体感悟与悲剧体验三方面阐发了“气象”的内涵并探讨了“气象”与“境界”的关系,提出“境界”是一种人生境界。气象具有与境界相通的特点,是境界理论的基础。     

弘扬儒家"和谐"文化构建社会主义和谐社会

构建社会主义和谐社会,是党中央在十六大报告的基础上提出的我国经济社会发展新的战略指导思想。“和谐社会”思想的文化渊源可以追朔到我国传统的儒家文化。以孔孟为代表的儒家文化的精髓和理想就在于实现社会的“和谐”。在构建社会主义和谐社会中,继承和弘扬儒家的“和谐”文化具有重要的理论意义和当代价值。     

弘扬井冈山精神,抓好学生党员先进性教育

在高校开展以实践"三个代表"重要思想为主要内容的保持共产党员先进性教育活动中,把弘扬井冈山精神与学生党员的先进性教育结合起来,有利于明确出发点、找准结合点、抓实落脚点.     

食品安检专业开设动物病理学课程的改革与探索

本文从专业现状及教学中存在的问题,对食品安检专业开设动物病理学课程的教学改革相关问题进行阐述,为全面培养高素质的食品安检专业人才提供经验。