法学方法新论

法学方法除了已有的价值评判、实证分析和社会实践以及法律解释、法律推理和逻辑分析等方法之外,还有其他法学方法,如从"事"(事物、事情)到"理"(道理),再从"理"到"法"(法律、法学),最后又从"法"到"事"。较之已有的法学方法,这些方法不仅是创新和发展,而且更为基础和根本。     

Hawkes过程分支比估计——一种简单的非参数方法

Hawkes自激发过程是近年来被广泛用于金融建模的一个良好模型。本文提出了一种Hawkes自激发过程的分支比的简单估计方法,该方法是对Hardiman和Bouchaud提出的均值-方差估计量的改进。在继承均值-方差估计量形式简便的优点的同时,克服其参数难以选择的缺陷,减小了估计的系统性偏差。模拟结果验证了改进的效果,同时我们将该估计方法用于我国股市内生性水平的分析之中。     

Estimating the prevalence of adolescent gambling disorders: A quantitative synthesis and guide toward standard gambling nomenclature

This article reviews the extant published and unpublished studies that estimate the prevalence of adolescent gambling problems in North America. The nine nonduplicative studies identified by our literature search included data collected from more than 7700 adolescents from five different regions of the United States and Canada. In addition to comparing the conceptual and methodological differences that exist among these studies, this article employed a meta-analytic strategy to synthesize prevalence estimates from the existing studies. This analysis revealed that within a 95 percent confidence interval, between 9.9% and 14.2% of adolescents are at risk of developing or returning to serious gambling problems. Similarly, between 4.4% and 7.4% of adolescents exhibit seriously adverse compulsive or pathological patterns of gambling activity. Finally, the discussion proposes a generic multi-level classification scheme to reconcile the divergent classification methods and data reporting strategies. This new multi-level approach to reporting gambling prevalence will facilitate interstudy comparisons among existing estimates of gambling prevalence and help to provide a general data reporting system for future research.     

蓝田华胥陵--中华民族的始祖陵

根据古代神话传说 ,盘古开天辟地之后乃有三皇。三皇的说法不一 ,笔者认为从时间早晚上当以燧人氏、伏羲氏和女娲氏为宜。伏羲和女娲皆是神性和人性相结合的人类始祖 ,是东方的“亚当和夏娃”。伏羲和女娲乃华胥氏所生的儿女 ,因此华胥氏是中华民族最早的始祖。蓝田县华胥镇之羲母陵是独一无二的华胥陵 ,华胥陵及与华胥陵相关的三皇故居等遗迹遗址具有重大的历史价值和开发价值     

Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision under Uncertainty

This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision contexts, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision situations.     

关于“先进文化”的传播与高师教育的思考

先进文化作为较高层次的历史现象,理应对整个社会的发展作出应有的贡献.要充分发挥先进文化的先进作用,必须让民众深入了解先进文化.高师教育在教学过程中,应充分重视这一点,并把它当作自己的主要任务之一.     

试论周恩来新中国体育外交实践

体育既是竞技项目,又具有群众性,更是国民素质和综合国力的体现,在曾担任26年国务院总理的周恩来看来,体育还是外交的组成部分。因此,他十分关心体育事业,不仅推动了新中国体育事业的大发展,而且,通过体育又推动了外交的大发展。     

Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk‐ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.     

如何发明

深圳长期以来被称作是全球制造业中心,而且它已经得到了联合国教科文组织"设计之都"的称号,我想深圳的下一个目标就是建立一个"创新之都".不知道我是否有资格在这里建议深圳这样一个大城市怎样更具创意,如果要我提建议的话,我会让大家考虑一些边界模糊的设计,把一些不寻常的东西结合起来,尽量保持多学科的融合,因为创新来自予内部.