Estimable Versions of Griffiths' Measure of Association

Many techniques have been proposed for measuring the degree of association between a pair of random variables X and Y. However, the measures often suffer from two drawbacks: they are difficult to calculate when the joint distribution of (X, Y) is known, and difficult to estimate when the joint distribution is unknown. In the present paper we present two modifications of a measure proposed by Griffiths (1972), and show that they exhibit neither of these deficiencies.     

Muscle-power quality: does sex or race affect movement velocity in older adults?

To determine sex and race differences in muscle power per unit of muscle contraction, knee-extensor muscle power normalized for knee-extensor muscle volume was measured in 79 middle-aged and older adults (30 men and 49 women, age range 50-85 years). Results revealed that women displayed a 38% faster peak movement velocity than men and African Americans had a 14% lower peak movement velocity than Whites of a similar age when expressed per unit of involved muscle (p < .001). As expected, men exhibited greater knee-extensor strength and peak power per unit of muscle than women, but women had a faster knee- extension movement velocity per unit of muscle than men at the same relative strength level. Moreover, African Americans had greater knee-extensor muscle volume than Whites but exhibited lower knee-extensor strength and lower movement velocity per unit of muscle when tested at the same relative strength levels.     

Testing for abrupt breaks in variance structures with smooth changes

Abstract

We investigate the problem of testing for variance breaks in the case where the variance structure is assumed to be smoothly time-varying under the null. Since the classical tests are aimed to detect any change in the variance, they are not able to distinguish between smooth non constant variance and abrupt breaks. In this paper a new procedure for detecting variance breaks taking into account for smooth changes in the variance under the null is proposed. The finite sample properties of the test we introduce are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments. The theoretical outputs are illustrated using U.S. macroeconomic data.     

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.     

Accepting and Negotiating Service Users' Choices in Mental Health Transition Meetings

Across Western welfare regimes, policies emphasize that service users should have more choices regarding their services. This article examines how service choices are presented, responded to and decided in interactions between service users and professionals in mental health transition meetings. Choice is often associated with consumerist user involvement ideas, but in mental health choice also relates to the democratic user involvement approach and to shared decision making between professionals and service users. The results of the study show that professionals construct service users as consumers by offering service options in choice making sequences, expecting users to make appropriate choices. Service users mostly act like consumers by responding to these choice options. However, the study also demonstrates that the professionals do not always accept the user's first choice but respond to them as non‐preferred. Sometimes, they also suggest choices on behalf of the users. In these ‘non‐accepting’ sequences, choices are negotiated in interaction between the parties, rather than users acting as autonomous choice makers. The sequences are based on two kinds of professional reasoning: first, the professional‐led needs assessment and, second, the structure of the service package that the user is being offered. This negotiation has elements of shared decision making and the ‘logic of care’. But it also has elements of paternalist control which challenge both consumerist and democratic service user involvement and suggests consideration of more collectively oriented service user actions.     

将海南建成我国南海渔业开发基地的战略构想

要使拥有广阔南海海域的海南成为南海渔业开发的基地,就应有综合开发、科技兴渔和发展名、优、特海产品的战略思想。在其战略思想指导下,建立西、南、中沙海洋捕捞基地,名、优、特海珍品养殖基地和海产品加工与储运基地,并合理地布设捕捞、养殖和加工基地