A comparison of applications of microcomputers in production

Earlier research has established that the full potential of microcomputers is not being achieved by production management in small companies. Moreover, questionnaire results and in-company interviews were used to support suggested reasons for this situation. This paper reports further work carried out to examine the issues raised in far more detail. Collaboration took place with nine separate companies over a range of applications. Three of these case studies are presented in detail, and general conclusions drawn relating both to these specific studies and to the total collaboration.     

Modern statistics: the myth and the magic

Summary.  The paper is a personal exploration of the puzzling contradiction between the fundamental excitement of statistics and its poor public image. It begins with the historical foundations and proceeds through the role of applications and the dramatic impact of the computer in shaping the discipline. The mismatch between the reality of statistics and its public perception arises from a number of dichotomies, some of which are explored. In particular, although statistics is perhaps typically seen as an impersonal discipline, in some sense it is very personal, and many of its applications are aimed at providing unique benefit to individuals. This benefit depends on the creation of detailed data sets describing individuals, but the contrary view is that this represents an invasion of privacy. Some observations on statistical education are made, and issues which will affect the future health of the discipline are examined.     

Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review

Credit scoring is the term used to describe formal statistical methods used for classifying applicants for credit into 'good' and 'bad' risk classes. Such methods have become increasingly important with the dramatic growth in consumer credit in recent years. A wide range of statistical methods has been applied, though the literature available to the public is limited for reasons of commercial confidentiality. Particular problems arising in the credit scoring context are examined and the statistical methods which have been applied are reviewed.     

Editorial

Statistics and Computing -     

Disciplinary schisms: Subspecialty “drift” and the fragmentation of sociology

One component of the often discussed malaise in sociology has been the problem of subspecialty “drift” — applied specialties given birth originally within the field now forming separate departments or programs. The historical and ideological origins of this problem are discussed, focusing primarily on the schism early on in sociology between pure and applied work. Anecdotal evidence presented from interviews with faculty in social work and criminal justice programs suggests sociology has in many cases facilitated development of new programs. In order to evaluate the relative position of applied programs within departments of sociology, a comparative analysis of the 1986 and 1996 Guide to Graduate Departments of Sociology “special program” and department titles is undertaken. Contrary to the perception that applied programs are leaving sociology, results indicate an overall increase in special programs with an applied or practice component. Furthermore, masters programs are significantly more likely to have changed department names and to be in combined departments than doctoral programs. We suggest that while sociology has lost ground in the applied arena to more practice and policy-oriented disciplines, program changes within departments in the past decade may help to stem further subspecialty drift. The article concludes by suggesting that state sociological associations are particularly well suited to play a leadership role in addressing these issues. Dr. Bennett M. Judkins is currently doing research on community change and multiculturalism. Address correspondence to: Department of Sociology, Lenoir-Rhyne College, Hickory, NC 28601. Dr. Carl M. Hand is currently doing research on changes in undergraduate and graduate enrollments in sociology. Address correspondence to: Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminal Justice, Valdosta State University, Valdosta, GA 31698.     

Behavioural models of credit card usage

Behavioural models characterize the way customers behave in their use of a credit product. In this paper, we examine repayment and transaction behaviour with credit cards. In particular, we describe the development of Markov chain models for late repayment, investigate the extent to which there are different classes of behaviour pattern, and explore the extent to which distinct behaviours can be predicted. We also develop overall models for transaction time distributions. Once such models have been built to summarize the data, they can be used to predict likely future behaviour, and can also serve as the basis of predictions of what one might expect when economic circumstances change.     

Assessing classification rules

Having constructed a rule for classifying objects into classes, one will need to evaluate the performance of that rule both in absolute terms (is it good enough?) and in relative terms (is it better than an alternative?). In this paper, we discuss such evaluation, focusing primarily on the first question, and covering discriminability (how effective the rule is in classifying new objects to the correct class) and reliability (how accurately it estimates probabilities of class membership). Measures based on percentages correct, measures based on probabilities of being correct and distance based measures are outlined, and attractive and problematic properties are discussed.