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1.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
2.
Social Indicators Research - Debates about the appropriate role of markets and governments are often shaped by sharply contrasting opinions. Based on individual data from the World Values Survey... 相似文献
3.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
4.
Franses Philip Hans 《Econometric Reviews》1995,14(1):55-63
In this paper it is shown that several models for a bivariate nonstationary quarterly time series are nested in a vector autoregression with cointegration restrictions for the eight annual series of quarterly observations. Or, the Granger Representation Theorem is extended to incorporate, e.g., seasonal and periodic cointegration. 相似文献
5.
Statistical Papers - 相似文献
6.
In this paper, we propose to detect seasonal unit roots within the context of a structural time series model. Such a model is often found to be useful in practice. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that our method works well. We illustrate our approach for several quarterly macroeconomic time series variables. 相似文献
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8.
Heinrich Beyer Hans G. Nutzinger 《Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations》1993,4(1):55-72
Aspects of industrial relations and internal co-ordination have been a major topic of empirical research in the German business enterprise sector. In contrast, there are practically no empirical investigations into labour-management relations in third sector institutions. The largest share of this sector in Germany is represented by the two Christian churches with presently about 900,000 employees. According to the notion of church officials, labour-management relations in these institutions are characterised by a specific normative concept which emphasises a trustful co-operation of all employees in the mission of the church. The major concern of our research project focused on the question whether the specific conditions of employment within church institutions favour more hierarchical or more co-operative forms of co-ordination and how employees and employee representatives perceive the ideal of the community of service (Dienstgemeinschaftsgedanke). The results of our research lead to the conclusion that church labour-management relations are characterised by a remarkable contrast between the participative or co-operative notion of the ideal of the community of service and present forms of hierarchical co-ordination inside church institutions.This article gives a selected overview of Beyer and Nutzinger (1991). The research was supported by the Hans-Böckler-Stiftung (Düsseldorf) and the University of Kassel. 相似文献
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10.
Whilst much is written about the theory of long range planning it is a fact that unfortunately, the organization of long range planning of business strategy within companies, has not proved to be an attractive object of research for business theorists. This paper is the exception. By an examination of more than 200 companies residing in the Federal Republic of Germany, long range planning is shown to be gaining more importance as a tool for company management. The organizational design of the planning system and its integration into the overall company structure is, according to this analysis, shown to be one of the most central problems of the implementation of corporate planning systems. This paper presents a theoretical framework and the empirical findings on structural and procedural aspects of long range planning, systems. The empirical study was carried out by means of interviews and a questionnaire survey. The survey results show some interesting and important features of the problems engendered by corporate planning and some of the advantages accruing from its successful implementation. Additionally, the analysis provides an interesting backcloth against which to view the implementation of planning and the relationships between the different levels of planning. 相似文献