Forecasting interest rates volatilities by GARCH (1,1) and stochastic volatility models

In this paper, we compare the forecast ability of GARCH(1,1) and stochastic volatility models for interest rates. The stochastic volatility is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The comparison is based on daily data from 1994 to 1996 for the ten year swap rates for Deutsch Mark, Japanese Yen, and Pound Sterling. Various forecast horizons are considered. It turns out that forecasts based on stochastic volatility models are in most cases superiour to those obtained by GARCH(1,1) models.     

Maria Concetta (Etta) Chiuri 1969–2009

In Memoriam

Maria Concetta (Etta) Chiuri 1969–2009     

OPTIMAL DIMENSIONS OF VIRGIN STOCK IN CUTTING GLASS TO ORDER

Glass cutting is a two-dimensional version of the cutting-stock problem. It involves two questions. One concerns the best way to cut a pane from a given plate. A less obvious question concerns selection of the plate from which the pane is cut. This leads to the question of what stock to order, before we even think of cutting it. We show that this latter question is more critical to economic cutting than the refinement of cutting procedures. We also present a method for selecting optimal stock sizes.     

Maternal Sensitivity Moderates the Relation between Negative Discipline and Aggression in Early Childhood

Three models regarding the relation between maternal (in)sensitivity, negative discipline, and child aggression were examined in a sample of 117 mother–child pairs with high scores on child externalizing behavior: (1) Sensitivity and discipline are uniquely related to child aggression (the additive model); (2) the relation between discipline and aggression is moderated by maternal sensitivity (the moderating model); (3) the relation between sensitivity and aggression is mediated by maternal discipline (the mediating model). Parenting and child aggression were observed when the children were on average 26.71 months old (range of 13.58 to 41.91 months) and again one year later. Results supported the moderating model. More negative discipline was related to more child aggression one year later, but only when mothers were insensitive. This finding supports the idea that the affective context is important for the impact of negative discipline on child development.     

Inequality and Political Consensus

This paper develops a model of political consensus in order to explain the missing link between inequality and political redistribution. Political consensus is an implicit agreement not to vote for extreme policy proposals. We show that such an agreement may play an efficiency-enhancing role. Voters anticipate that voting for extremist parties increases policy uncertainty in the future. A political consensus among voters reduces policy uncertainty because self-interested politicians propose non-discriminatory policies. We study how much inequality can be sustained in a democracy and how the limits to redistribution vary with initial inequality. The bounds of the set of political equilibria may react in a fundamentally different manner to changes in exogenous variables than do the policy variables in the one-dimensional, one-shot game. More initial inequality need not lead to more redistribution from the rich to the poor. The maximum amount of redistribution decreases with inequality if (and only if) agents are sufficiently patient. In this case inequality is politically self-sustaining.     

Everyday Racism as Predictor of Political Racism in Flemish Belgium

Two aspects of research on racism in Flanders (Belgium) are discussed in this article based on results from large-scale surveys between 1991 and 2003. The first relates to the (negative) attitudes of the majority toward foreigners (everyday racism) . The second relates to the vote for an extreme right-wing political party that emphasizes anti-immigrant viewpoints in its political program and propaganda (political racism) . Our main research question is how both forms of racism are related. First, theories to explain political racism are reviewed. Some theories suggest an extreme right-wing vote to be motivated by a content-related agreement with (part of) the program of these parties (e.g., racism, nationalism, or authoritarianism). Other theories suggest that this vote represents an antipolitical protest vote. From these theories, hypotheses are derived regarding the background characteristics and attitudes that are associated with an extreme right-wing vote (e.g., the Vlaams Blok). These hypotheses are tested using data from election research in 1991, 1999, and 2003. The results suggest that the vote for the party Vlaams Blok is a rational vote. Of all theories, the theory suggesting that everyday racism plays a prominent role received most support. Everyday racism thus motivates political racism in the Flemish part of Belgium.     

Das Rahmenproblem und die disziplinäre Arbeitsteilung

First the view is analyzed and criticized that in every discussion there are assumptions which are uncriticizable, this is called the framing problem. Then the consequences of a Popperian methodological revisionism for the division of labor in the sciences and for the problem of demarcation are shown. Finally the division of labor in the social sciences is criticized.     

Social professionals' perceptions of activating citizenship

This article reports on qualitative research among 48 social professionals, managers and policymakers and their perceptions of activating citizenship, social work roles and responsibilities, carried out in Utrecht and Tartu. Professionals from both countries agreed to the idea of activating citizenship but stressing the perspective of personalised or lived citizenship, each person to his own capacities and embedded in the personal context. Nearly all respondents were critical about the recognition of social workers as a full profession, about the new management way of steering social work and about cooperation between different groups of professionals and services. Although both countries have quite different historical and cultural backgrounds, the authors found many similarities among social workers regarding their ideas on support, participation and commitment to the people they work for and work with. International research projects contribute to a more strongly recognised social work theory and social work practice by getting a better understanding, in particular of the way social work adapts to different contexts but from a highly recognisable international discourse within social work.     

An empirical analysis of the time allocation of Italian couples: are they responsive?

The literature suggests that in Italy husbands contribute less to unpaid household work than in any other European country, while women have the lowest market employment rates. Here we examine the time allocation of Italian couples on which there are surprisingly few studies to date. We analyze simultaneously the time allocated by husband and wife to market work, childcare and housework, allowing for various interactions. We use data drawn from the Italian national Time Use Survey 2002–2003 for the analysis. We find that spousal time allocation is sensitive to personal and household characteristics, such as, in particular, education and children’s age. Evidence shows that men married to more highly educated women spend more time with their children. The husband’s own characteristics have less of an effect on women’s time allocation. We also find that patterns differ substantially between weekends and weekdays. The estimated correlations between the unobservable factors affecting the couple’s time allocation suggest that the time devoted by parents to childcare is complementary and that the time they devote to housework is substitutable across weekends and other weekdays.     

Using Model-Based Clustering to Improve Qualitative Inquiry: Computer-Aided Qualitative Data Analysis,Latent Class Analysis,and Interpretive Transparency

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - A combination of computer-aided qualitative data analysis (CAQDAS) and latent class analysis (LCA) can substantially...